My memory is vague but I seem to recall hearing of NK missiles heading in Japan's direction a number of times in recent years. Is my memory correct? Does NK just get free reign to fire missiles towards other countries?
As long as North Korea's regional neighbors and the United States do little more than condemning the launches, yes. We know these launches pose a risk to civilians on the ground, but little can be done to stop them short of bombing the launch sites. And bombing North Korea would be an act of war, and the consequences would be unpredictable. [1] There are rumors that CYBERCOM has been able to stop North Korean missile launches in the past with covert cyberattacks, but whether that's true or not would be classified. [2]
If the U.S. wanted to respond in kind, it could launch a missile from a ship in the Sea of Japan. The missile could be programmed to overfly Pyongyang, and crash into the Yellow Sea. Though China would probably deploy watercraft to recover the missile's debris to study its technology, if it doesn't detonate.
[1] Note that North Korea did bomb the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong back in 2010 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong?uses...). Two civilians and two soldiers were killed, and a number of people were wounded, but the shelling did not trigger a conflict. North Korea also sank a South Korean warship the same year, killing 46, and it didn't cause a war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking?useskin=v...).
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-mi...
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/asia/north-korea-mi...
Fun fact: the US is technically still at war with Korea. The Korean war was never actually stopped...
But I do agree resuming hostilities would lead to unpredictable and undesirable outcomes.
Could you expand on this? Perhaps naively, I would expect the US & allies to be able to bomb all NK military assets and topple the inferior government easily & quickly. It wouldn't be another guerilla ground war, we just want to destroy their military capabilities.
I guess there is still the concern that China would back NK, but I can't see what China benefits from that. A war with other superpowers to protect a poor, weak, unpredictable regime?
Also helpful to collect intelligence.
Sending missiles toward Japan directly hurts the economy of Japan and its political stability (which in returns, has positive effects that the competitors of Japan can reap).
North Korea has few enough nukes that first strike to take them out is possible. But would likely require using nukes. China, and much of the world, would not be happy. Acceptable if war has broken out, not to start a war.
And that’s one of those “fun” facts we learn in school that as I grow older I increasingly question the veracity or usefulness of saying it. It’s unclear whether Korea and the DPRK are even at war with each other in any usefully understood manner; just that they view each other as illegitimate sovereigns occupying their territory in an official manner, much like China and the PRC.
Checks and balances: A formal declaration of war requires a higher level of political support and public debate, providing more opportunity for scrutiny and oversight.
Indefinite conflicts: AUMFs often lack clear objectives or timelines, which can lead to prolonged and open-ended military engagements.
Legal ambiguity: AUMFs can create legal ambiguity, as they may not explicitly invoke the laws of war, which govern the conduct of armed forces and the treatment of civilians, prisoners of war, and non-combatants.
There really isn't a ballistic trajectory that wouldn't land in PRC or SKR waters, unless it's a (relatively) low flying cruise missile that overflys SKR waters and circles back to land inJapanese waters in east sea which is much more escalatory than lofting a high flying ballistic over air space. Practically there isn't a viable "proportional" response, especially if failure = ordnance lands in PRC or RU territory.