> Paul Romer, economist and policy entrepreneur, is a co-recipient of the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics Sciences and University Professor in Economics at NYU. He has spent his career at the intersection of economics, innovation, technology, and urbanization, working to speed up human progress.
I personally do find it surprising how over seasonal effects are often the primary number reported, and there isn't much effort to really understand them.
This was especially problematic for reporting unemployment numbers during the pandemic. All of the published unemployment numbers during the pandemic included seasonal effects, which is absurd to anyone giving the situation even a moments thought. Clearly the impact of the pandemic disrupted whatever seasonal pattern there may have been during stable period.
For unemployment during the pandemic including these seasonal effects would often invert conclusions about the data (e.g. "unemployment is higher this month" when the non-adjusted values were lower and vice versa).
Often times when we really care about an economic indicator it's during times where something strange is happening meaning we should be cautious about unquestioningly using seasonal effects in models.
He makes reference to a prediction of a 100 bps decline, I think by the end of the year which seems kind of silly to me given the numbers appear to swing by more then 1000 bps over individual months. I’d be curious what he’s actually basing the claim on. He has some sort of model. I’d hope it’s not just based on what is shown in the article
There is nothing wrong with disagreeing with even the most respected of experts, history has proven they can be wrong often.
Simply ignoring someone because "I don't know who this is" is generally a bad idea, and even more ridiculous when that person does in fact have a well known reputation.
I disagree with the rigor of the analysis. I don’t have any strong opinions on the takeaways.
It's officially the "Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel," it dates from 1968 not 1900, it isn't part of the original prizes funded by Nobel, there's no evidence Nobel - given his distrust of the profit motive - would have approved, and it's funded with an endowment from Sweden's Central Bank.
There have been calls for it to be abolished.
To say some of the awards have been controversial among science and arts laureates would be a huge understatement.
At least the money doesn't come from selling armament...
> To say some of the awards have been controversial among science and arts laureates would be a huge understatement.
More controversial than Nobel Peace Prizes?
I think the economics prize was a group of people with ties to money and power trying to add weight and credence to theories that would support their continued access to money and power.
Neither is flawless but one is much more ... noble?... than the other.
> The prize in economic sciences is awarded by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden, according to the same principles as for the Nobel Prizes that have been awarded since 1901. [0] https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/