Of course this is only one theory but I find it convincing.
https://journals.lww.com/cogbehavneurol/fulltext/2022/12000/....
Maybe consciousness is the only thing that exists and physics (or rather, the experience of physics) is just an emergent property of it.
There may be conscious beings in the universe (or galaxy, or perhaps solar system) who would consider us only vaguely conscious or not conscious at all.
Am I typing this because the lights are on or because I’m compelled to by my genetic and social programming, predictably and without a genuine choice in the matter?
I don't understand how anyone can doubt this even a fraction of a second. Magic does not exist.
ChatGPT 4, limited as it is, could probably predict me down to a low margin of error with that kind of info alone, and it would seem like magic to me.
A character on the NBC/Yahoo! show Community had a good one-liner: "I'm not psychic, Annie. That's just an illusion caused by extreme preparedness."
OTOH when they are not... a simple exercise one can do is go ask GPT-4 to simulate a comment section on some political news story posted online; you can even have it write a fictional news story first, for good measure. It is extremely good at it, and that tells me volumes about the actual (rather than perceived) rationality of our public discourse.
There is a case that everything we do is preordained. A result of forces and interactions that trace all the way back to big bang.
My choice on whether or not I reply to you doesn't exist. Your combination of words triggers a response in my brain that makes me type this combination of words. The words I "chose" to delete, rewrite, leave, are all a result of various forces.
The kicker is that we can't really know. There is no test for free will. In order to know whether or not I had a choice to do this, we'd have to run the entire universe again up to that point to see what I would do. Because experience matters. Even if this exact same post went up tomorrow with all the same response except for mine. The fact that it's now Thursday instead of Wednesday matters. The fact that I posted this today matters. What I had for lunch. How fast I drank my coffee. What shirt I wore. Etc. These are all things that change the conditions under which I will engage with the post.
The second kicker is that it doesn't matter. If free will truly does not exist, it's not like you have a choice in whether or not to believe in it. The arguments either will work or they won't.
It gets really tricky with machines. We share _nothing_ with them, but what about when they start sharing properties with us that we associate with consciousness? I don't have any good answers for that.
The problem is that, just as with the outside world, we only have the perception of our own inner workings, not real understanding of them. So we are modelling "I" as an entity, and it seems useful enough for day-to-day purposes, but how accurate is it really if you get to the bottom of it?
It matters as a point of principle to the physicists who are asking questions about whether true randomness exists - if the physical world can be influenced by something outside of the natural forces they know about, they want to measure that force, even if measurement and computing equipment to model the universe down to the Planck scale cannot exist.
Where it really matters is when you get to computer simulations: Without access to a source of non-determinism, an AI can hardly be said to have free will. Give the same pattern of bytes running on the same instruction set the same inputs, and it will deterministically generate the same outputs.
for me personally, this is a "soft free will" distinction, i.e. we have true free will, but we're very unlikely to actually use it. the other one is the question of "hard free will", i.e. whether "god plays dice" and the fully deterministic universe.
In computing systems it's fairly common to have a monitoring and control layer on top of the core functionality. Is it beyond the bounds of possibility that evolution could have come up with something similar and that control view is what we call "consciousness"?