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The probability of getting caught is low. Unless you're bringing back several boxes.

Unpack, put it in your backpack, boom it's your personal item.

> The probability of getting caught is low

Why would it be illegal if you just bought a single laptop for personal usage?

Because you are avoiding tax, if you get caught you’ll pay the duty and a fine.

Because you need to pay VAT on imports into the country above a certain value (which is much less than the cost of a Macbook).

Again this isn’t about the probability it’s about the legality, saying that things are cheaper when you avoid tax is like saying water is wet.