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Comment by xqcgrek2 | Hacker News Reader

At Tesla's profit margin and economies of scale, it might be the first decent sub-20k USD EV

Are there any new ICE vehicles currently selling in the US for less than $20k? I'd expect the Model 2 to be priced at least at $30k.

There are some low end Nissans, Kias, and Mitsubishis on cars.com for sub-19k USD as of right now.

The Model 3 SR in China is ~$33000USD and in the US (after tax credit), about $34000. Tesla is aiming for a much lower cost to produce... they've stated 50% COGS of the Model 3, which would put its cost at about $18000 USD. Their goal is to achieve > 20% gross margin, which would still be achievable at a selling price of $25K USD.

Except... by the time it actually ships, probably $40k :(

A base model Nissan Versa is $15k MSRP. They have other models in that range.

Or you can get a new Toyota Corolla for $21k MSRP, which is close enough.

Now do the math for now expensive the gas is for that in LA going out to the next ten years assuming ten miles a day commute during the week and 30 miles on weekends.

With how the Hoover dam and others are looking as well as taking into account a rising number of people that will want to charge EVs, maybe you want to do some scenarios around electricity pricing as well.

The people increasingly charging their EVs from their solar panels on the roof?

As more and more cars become electric, wouldn’t the price of gas also drop in the next decade?

Heavy industrial demand won't change. And let's not expect the petrostate cartel to make the transition away from their product to be an easy one.

Why am I pricing the gas in LA? Most car buyers do not live in LA.

1. Less than a handful. $25k brings several options.

2. To effectively be a $20k car EVs have an advantage because of their tax subsidies. {Base Price} - {Tax Credit} < $20,000 is plausible. It's impossible to say who will qualify or how big of a tax credit US customers will have by the time this would launch.

Nissan Versa, $15,830

Mitsubishi Mirage, $16,245

Kia Rio, $16,750

Hyundai Venue, $19,650

Kia Forte, $19,690

Subaru Impreza, $19,795

Kia Soul, $19,890

Tesla is behind the competition. There are already multiple sub-20k USD EVs on the market, such as the BYD e2 ($15k) or the Geely Geometry EX3 (below $10k).

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