The summary: it doesn’t matter what Afghanistan has because the political situation is a mess.
It’s not about who controls Kabul. It’s the social structure of the entire country.
Ik there was always a military presence in Kohat Agency since the British era (Battle of Saranghai for example) but was there a significant increase in presence in the leadup to Zarb-e-Azb, or were levels maintained?
It was a garrison slightly north of Thal. I think it was renamed Fort Gulistan after the 3rd Anglo-Afghan War.
> It’s the social structure of the entire country.
Isn't U.S, Soviet Union and Great Britain who ruined this country for a last century to gain geopolitical space in the middle of Asia?
It became mess after these countries invaded them, let's see if they can recover from that in upcoming 50 years, if they can, we might see another fast growing economy with their resources
The local political structure in the region was always clan driven due to the 300 years of near anarchy in the region stretching from Khorasan to Punjab following the collapse of the Safavid and Mughal Empires.
[0] - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan%E2%80%93Sikh_Wars
[1] - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mughal%E2%80%93Persian_Wars
(Slight disagreement with the above wiki page - I wouldn't treat Afsharids as Persian)
[2] - https://thediplomat.com/2015/10/300-years-ago-afghanistans-g...
Another good read is “Under The Absolute Amir” by Frank Martin (early 20th century and out of print, probably online somewhere)
He talked about how it was impossible to get the necessary insurance to check for resources.
If you can’t get insurance to check, the rest doesn’t matter.