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Comment by jefftk | Hacker News Reader

Note that this is a very large group of people, with 1230 additions annually: https://www.forbes.com/30-under-30/directory/

"The American lists recognize 600 business and industry figures, with 30 selected in twenty industries each. Asia and Europe also each have ten categories for a total of 300 each, while Africa has a single list of 30 people." -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes_30_Under_30

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It looks like the US prosecutes about 300 people each year for fraud, out of a population of 300 million. With a pool of about 7000 US citizens on the list you would expect about 1.4% chance of one of them would be charged with fraud in the next two years if fraud was uniformly distributed through the population.

Would be interesting to see how the numbers break down for just C*O positions, as many of the 30 under 30 are founders and other executives.

[1] https://www.justice.gov/criminal-fraud/facts-statistics

> the US prosecutes about 300 people each year for fraud

That's way too low. [checks link...] That's just cases handled by the DOJ Health Care Fraud Unit, not all fraud.

It’s fraud prosecuted by the federal government for fraud against the major federal public healthcare programs (one of which is joint federal-state program where much of the fraud is prosecuted by state prosecutors, not the feds.)

Its... very much not all healthcare fraud prosecution, much less all fraud prosecution.

Other extreme is field medal in mathematics given once 4 years to encourage young folks to do mathematics. Every decade, he promote,encourage, recognize two and half people. By all accounts, they are already super motivated and accompolished.

On the "fraud" side though, math is about as fraud proof as it comes.

There is lots of fraud in experimental science where it's easier to fudge, like business. It would be interesting to see how many early career research award recipients in experimental fields end up also being frauds.

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