Crypto/blockchai/NFT never once proved real value.
AI has instantly provided deep and real value - certainly to me.
I'm looking forward to wave after wave of ever better AI products from everyone from Apple to Amazon to all the IDE developers, the toy makers and just about every other sector of the economy.
AI is already reshaping the way some things work and it's only months since the real revolution started.
In technology you can reasonably expect that pretty much everything will fundamentally change.
The most exciting thing is that it is like the first days of the web - back then all we could think of to use it for was transfer printed stuff onto. It took years until the technology was understood and applications developed that leveraged its inherent strengths.
Stuff is coming with AI that will blow your mind ten times more than what we have seen so far, which is already mind blowing.
AI is going to result in advances in other fields like medicine and energy - things that no-one thought possible in their wildest science fiction dreams.
New fortunes will be made, existing fortunes will be lost or will diminish greatly.
You may have to find something else to read if you want to get away from AI.
As a programmer I use ChatGPT constantly all day every day.
I can imagine any number of ways in which AI is going to completely redefine what programming is, and how software works.
AI is going to be able to make connections and draw conclusions from large data sets that humans simply cannot, which will make vast difference to things like energy production, the efficiency of any number of energy consuming and generating devices, in medicine, in cosmology, in aeronautics, in defence, in agriculture. Name any field - engineering, construction, education - everything is going to have some level of influence from AI.
Consider something as mundane as tax, finance and accounting..... AI means you will be able to say something along the lines of "analyse the past three years of my 4 banks accounts and my tax account, consider my age, assets and demographic position and tell me all the tax breaks that I am legally entitled to and tell me what to do to take advantage of those tax breaks". Later developments will likely allow you to go on "And then go ahead and register the changes with the tax department and the bank and let me know and send me an alert every time I have financially benefited from making these changes that we have just discussed."
AI will be able to draw connections, see things, hear things, watch TV, watch cameras and make decisions and draw inferences based on what it has seen. Following a crime, police will be able to say "is there any CCTV in North London from about three months ago showing a man in a red hoodie and blue jeans". Politicians will be held to account in real time for saying things that contradict themselves because the AI systems will know everything and if you say "Tell me any time a former President contradicts themself against previous statements", then that will happen.
Without wanting to be insulting, anyone who can't see this perhaps lacks imagination.
The biggest one is that AI will in time come to underlie everything that computers do at some level.
Programming already feels closer to painting than it ever has thanks to AI.
I'd be surprised if Apple hasn't allocated at least $100,000,000,000 to AI development at a minimum and likely similar numbers from Amazon, Google and Microsoft. In addition huge number of small companies and open source developers are working on stuff. ChatGPT is just the start and it's not going to be a monopoly like Google4 had on search - this will be fragmented and domain specific in many cases.
Just this morning I was thinking "I wonder if I could tell the AI to pretend to be a Furby and only discuss topics that relate directly to Furbies.", with the idea of putting one into a toy for fun building on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQQbs94qung
Its not hype.
> Its not hype.
> ... AI to pretend to be a Furby...
Sorry to pick on this and be a little snarky, but all of this is hype.
100B? That's more than will ever be spent on fusion research - unlimited cheap energy.
OpenAI, the leader in the space, is valued at 29B and they've delivered a compelling product with seemingly less than 1B raised.
I get that people are excited, but this will be imo a smartphone type innovation. Sure it's made a lot of stuff sort of different (but not that much imo), lot's of new applications and apps - the "world's entire knowledge at your fingertips" but has it really changed humanity? Most people play freemium games on them, order takeout or take selfies and browse social media.
So I'm guessing this new wave of generative AI will mostly give us more of our shallow entertainment... virtual celebrities and gossip, on-demand personalized games and chat partners.
These companies have the money, they’ve been saving it for a rainy day which has arrived.
Meanwhile I propose replacing `AI` with `Yogurt`. Not only it reads better - we already have yogurt. Also, wasn't there a Black Mirror episode featuring yogurt? In any case, there's also this: https://www.rifters.com/crawl/?p=6315
I've never said the same about crypto. Don't let it confuse you.
In general this is not going away. Language models are wrong and hallucinate every now and then, but they often get all the basic questions right, and it's clear they'll be more than suitable replacements to humans for many tasks. In general if people engage with these models enough maybe they'll collect enough tuning data to make giant expert systems to reduce error over time. The tipping point in LLMs may not be the tech itself, but being just good enough for mass engagement, where all your users are like mechanical turk training data
Also people will keep finding ways to prune the LLMs to be tinier, once some Fabrice Bellard level genius makes them run super fast on cpu with lower memory they will be unavoidable.
If you've got a startup that does logistics or something, you can probably fundraise whenever, subject to macroeconomics. If you made am NFT wallet or a chat GPT-powered dog sharing app, you had / have a tiny window to try and snag some dumb VC money before it's chasing the next thing.
And (chat)gpt and the apis help us replace humans we never wanted to hire in the first place, but we had no choice because writing software to replace them was not in the budget (enterprise companies…); now it’s so cheap that it is in the budget, like coffee is.
Some tools are worthwhile, most are not; how is that different than other software dev? I would just not put the letters gpt in it and just make it do something people value and will pay for.
Gpt has to be in there because the ‘products’ are generally crap and jittery and slow, so to ask money and get away with it, gpt is a ‘pre-alpha quality’ sticker somehow.
If I need to do something that requires those skills, it used to take me an hour to get up to remember how to do everything, and another hour to do the work. With ChatGPT it took ~15min as it handled all the boilerplate/basic stuff I was previously grabbing from documentation. It's not hard or impossible to do without it, but it did save me significant time.
If you're an efficient engineer with photographic memory, it will not significantly improve your workflow. If you're an average generalist programmer who uses Stackoverflow more than once a day, GPT models will save you time.
If the number of articles in my RSS feed that I need to mark as read isn't an indicator of wasted CO2, it is an indicator of how boring my day will be.
Played out? Those are still going strong. BTC is almost 30k again after ‘it was almost gone’, Altman is banging on Worldcoin, most Twitter promoted stuff I get is crypto while I follow no one in crypto (actually quite the opposite). Same for fintech; a slew of people I personally know from meet-ups just got millions for vague copy/paste ideas. How did it play out? Feels like it has many years to go still.
Best to buckle up and get familiar
-- ChatGPT (GPT 3.5)
In order for a potato knish to have the same gravitational pull as Earth, it would need to have a mass comparable to that of Earth. This is physically impossible for a pastry of that size. Increasing the mass of the knish to such an extent would also cause it to collapse under its own gravity and form a very different type of celestial body, and it would no longer be a potato knish.
— gpt4