Comment by 5e92cb50239222b | Hacker News Reader

Comment by 5e92cb50239222b | Hacker News Reader

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5e92cb50239222b

I really wish this got more attention (but I guess Russian citizens receive zero sympathy these days, their political position notwithstanding). Maybe then we would see less of this tiresome bullshit from keyboard warriors from around the globe who blame ordinary citizens for being unwilling to throw themselves unarmed against a neo-Stalinist dictatorship that the West has supported for more than two decades.

The EU only banned sales of riot control gear and weaponry in October 2022! and they're still buying tons and tons of oil, gas, diamonds, and other natural resources that directly finance the war (taxes on natural resources go to the army pretty much right away, unlike taxes on sales and salaries that finance local projects like roads and schools). In fact, Russia made record profits last year.

I do not live in Russia, but I have enough experience living under a strongly authoritarian rule to know what it's like. Another favorite of the West in fact, that did terrible things to the people in January 2022, and no-one batted an eye.

>In fact, Russia made record profits last year.

There was a lag between the jumps in prices and the move towards other sources than Russia. Russia is going to have massive budget issues from this year onwards. Saying that Europe is still a massive buyer of Russia gas and oil is simply false.

Do you have a source? I found that after start of the war imports doubled from Russia for gas and news try to hide this elephant in the room. Same with swift, they said that Russia was disconnected but it was just a publicity stunt and I personally sent wire to Russia via swift in usd to test and it did work. Don’t know which sources to trust but seems like they all lie

A fairly clear graph over time is halfway down the page: https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451

Yes, gas imports increased after Russia invaded (but did not double) because countries were topping up storage before inevitable disruptions. And I remember them talking openly about it, not as an elephant in the room.

(of course “LNG” is doing a lot of work in that graph since it probably contains some Russian gas but the trend is clear)

Do you have a source for your “Russia disconnected from Swift” claim? I can find reports of individual banks being disconnected but don’t see any credible source for that.

If by "other sources" you mean Latvia, India, and the like, then sure. Maybe you would like to know who that oil and gas is really coming from (or maybe not if you want to sleep well at night — that what others have been doing).

I've read enough of this bullshit about Putin supposedly being out of rockets, Russian economy supposedly collapsing in a couple of weeks, etc, to not believe any word of it. And I really hoped it would happen quickly (dig into my comments if you don't believe me) because what he's been doing to Ukraine destroyed me emotionally — unlike most Westerners who didn't know what Ukraine was until very recently.

Russian state is under tremendous financial stress. If one were to listen to sources projecting an imminent collapse - they’d be disappointed, but still it is happening, albeit not as quickly as some have hoped.

The western countries despite their best intentions couldn’t move as quickly as some have hoped - whatever costs they impose on Russia are often a double-edged sword and risk harming their own economies.

Before one dismisses it as cynical - one must realize that to ensure long-term support for Ukraine - politicians have to be careful and court the public opinion in their own countries, and an economic burden will not help that cause.

But still - claims of some magical resilience of Russian state to the biggest collection of economic sanctions in history - is also a form of Russian propaganda. The extraordinary outflows of investment capital, flight of economically mobile population, import and export bans, loss of western gas and oil markets - is and will be more effective with every passing day.

The alternative to this gradual effect - is an overwhelming military defeat as the result of bold offensive action by NATO, but one can only guess how this would end. So we must wait.

On top of increased capacity from Algeria, Norway etc., a lot of it just comes from the US.

On the effects of Western sanctions and the like, Perun did a very complete sum-up three weeks ago : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmO1kfCr_II

Toute nation a le gouvernement qu'elle mérite.

First and foremost it was the russians who supported their government.

russians were silent during Chechnya, during the Yukos case, after Putin's comments on Kursk widows, after killing of Politkovskaya, Nemtsov, and so on and so on. Look at any russian popular media in early 2000s and you will see a huge amount of really casual racism, with "Brat 2" being the pinnacle. Nobody spoke out against it.

Just because they let it fester for so long that now they can't even protest is still on them.

I am not going to engage with someone who is so bent on his hatred that he's is willing to subvert the rules of the English grammar to show it, but let it be noted that it has been impossible to protest in Russia since around 2004 or so. None of what you're describing stopped the West from pouring insane amounts of money into Putin's military and repression apparatus. Oh, the irony. My relatives over there had it really difficult since the collapse of the USSR and life came out of pure survival mode closer to maybe 2010. I can't blame them for having other things on their mind, but I know you won't care.

Nobody is responsible for the state of Russia other than the Russians.

Since 2011 I would say. The first couple Bolotnaya protests (2011) were big and safe for the participants (i was there personally). That changed in 2012.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%932013_Russian_pr...

Saying that someone is accountable for their own country is hatred. Cool.

There are roughly 140 million people in russia. Out of that 2.6 million are “siloviki”. The 2.6 million are not the main reason for the regime, it’s the remaining 137.4 mil.

> russians were silent during Chechnya

Let me tell you how it actually was, first-hand - because you clearly got zero idea and seem to propagate the "we've always been at war with Eastasia" thing. So our family used to live in a small city/town (~10k pop) - everybody knew each other, and all that. A 18yo guy from a nearby house got conscripted and subsequently killed in that war. The next day his mother killed herself. Fast forward to 1996; Yeltsin (the autocrat who started that war) was running for his second term and organized a massive media campaign with rallies in every city and village. There was a pro-Yeltsin rally in our city as well, but the organizers had to literally run for their lives - everybody remembered that case. Two of them were hospitalized and taken into another city because even the medics refused them. Chechen war was everywhere, and Yeltsin had to promise to end it to even be taken seriously. Anybody who says otherwise got either no idea, no memory, or no honesty.

Cool. So what happened to Grozny?

I mean, Jesus Christ, 150-300k people died and you’re telling me that people were pissed for being drafted.

I'm directly addressing the point that people were "silent". No they weren't silent, and framing it as being pissed for being drafted is bizarre to anyone who lived during that time. They were angry at Yeltsin for bringing the war in the first place, to use military force in both 1993 coup and Chechnya. Why the massively unpopular person (with 6%-something support before the campaign) remained in power instead of someone like Nemtsov (funny how you remember his murder but don't seem to remember what role he was in during 90s) is another question, the answer will be far too long.

All irrelevant for the end-result: hundreds of thousands people dead, cities destroyed, warcrimes committed. 3 million "siloviki" in a country of 140 million - with these proportions, it's the 137 mil who are guilty.

Honestly, what I hear is moving the goalposts until "it's irrelevant whether you did anything, if you lost it's your damn fault lmao". Same with Belarus 2020. Well, if I'm hearing it right, then good luck with that brush. It might be understandable, but that doesn't make it excusable.

Honestly, this playing the victim is at best getting tiring. You've ignored my comment to hear it as moving the goal posts.

Again: only ca. 2% of the population are siloviki, who rely on the rest for support, for food, for logistics, for communication, IT support, etc., etc. If the protests fail, is because most of the 98% don't care, or snitch, or actively oppose the protest. That makes them culpable. A few complaining doesn't absolve the society.

You, on the other hand, dismissed my comment on how it was, made another unrelated claim, and now hearing that I'm playing the victim. (how on Earth?..) We can run in circles this way if you desire, but I don't want to.

It's only unlrelated if you don't care about the results. Which is the point I am making.

So you are fine with idea that if Ukraine loses war then it's okay to turn back no it at that very moment, call ukranians aggressors and punish them?

I just read your comment and it makes no sense.

EDIT: I think I understand now, but the amount of brainworms you have to have to equate a victim with someone silently supporting the aggressor is pretty big. russians are not the victims here.

Are belorussians victims or silent aggressors? And what about chechns? They are good example of nation that had 2 long wars with russian government for independence, in the end they lost and now region is considered ultraloyal to Putin. Ofc this loyalty hold mostly on Kadyrov and federals' brutality, but I suspect that you anyway won't call them victims.

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