Just to note, same happens in Belarus. This is one of the reason we can't travel there to see our grand parents - risk of being put in to prison and kids taken away is just to high to accept.
But it's not like Lukashenka runs some policy think tank anyway. He mostly wings it, often demonstrating an uncanny political sense for a self projected image of a simpleton. Still he certainly blew it big time in 2022. After participating in a breezy (now forgotten) invasion in Kazakhstan he went all in with Putin's next adventure. Now his ambitions of great commander appear to be back on ice and the focus is on survival. And while his own people remain his #1 enemy he is awake to the threat of complete Russian take over as well.
The reason I'm uncomfortable with this narrative though is it denies Lukashenka's part in this. All Belarusians are aware of the sheer amount of glee, joy and pride in his addresses during the build up and the first day of the invasion. I am convinced he was a willing ally, seething to get even with the West and to show it to stubborn people home who's the great one.
And the country certainly could have been entirely another place. Yet he's ultimately our people's creation, who voted him in democratically 29 years ago on an authoritarian leaning, populist platform. Now we're paying for the ultimate sin of not giving a fuck.
This is a strict requirement to become a dictator/authoritarian. It's a job only for the delusional and shameless.
On the other hand there is Putin whose army occupies his land, practically forever. They will make sure Belarus stays under Kremlin's influence. But for some strange reason he managed to refuse sending his own soldiers to Ukraine, so Putin's grip over him seems not that tight one would assume. Maybe Putin is afraid whoever comes after Lukashenko might be less easy to control so he agreed to keep him in power.
It's a strange situation and it is very unstable. But for the duration of the war in Ukraine, ironically Lukashenko's position is now probably more solid than it was before.