I would say that's pretty clear in the long run. AI will most likely create jobs, but how many jobs can it create ? Every white collar job potentially affected against what exactly ?
but you gotta cross that bridge when you get there, if you get there
So we can have more of the "gene out of the bottle" or "train has left the station" response ?
Your concern is theoretical "social unrest" due to being replaced by automation even in the face of factual social unrest due to extension of retirement age.
Even if automation replaces jobs en masse, It's not as if this would happen in a vacuum even if it does. We already have social safety nets (even in US) like unemployment insurance, medicaid, food stamps, etc not to mention a robust private charity network. And government already showed, for example, during the pandemic, that it was willing to fund people in an emergency if and when it happens.
One thing I do know about AGI/AI and automation in general, is that it's not going to sweep through entire industries overnight all at once. It takes time to deploy, time to deal with edge cases, time to refine, time to reconstruct processes around automation, time to adapt to whatever downstream changes and efficiencies the automation creates, time to effect prices in the marketplace, etc. Time to see if other jobs not previously anticipated when a new tech replaces an old one, like "web designer" or "web developer" or "SEO specialist" did with respect to newspapers or letter carriers or television programming being replaced or reduced by the existence of the internet.
Are we really worried about elderly revolting?
Yeah, it's not like there was an industrial revolution or anything...
The impact of AI on jobs is a topic of ongoing debate among experts. While some argue that AI will lead to significant job losses, others believe that it will create new opportunities and stimulate economic growth.
To understand the potential impact of AI on jobs, we can draw parallels with the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution, which began in the late 18th century, marked a period of rapid technological advancement and social change, as new machines and manufacturing processes were introduced.
Initially, the Industrial Revolution led to job losses in traditional industries, such as agriculture and textiles, as machines replaced manual labor. However, it also created new jobs in manufacturing, engineering, and other industries. Over time, as the benefits of industrialization became clear, the economy grew, and new opportunities emerged.
Similarly, AI is expected to create new jobs in industries such as robotics, data analysis, and software development. These jobs will require specialized skills and training, and may not be accessible to all workers. However, they are likely to pay well and offer opportunities for career advancement.
At the same time, AI may also lead to job losses in certain industries, particularly those that rely on routine, repetitive tasks. For example, automated manufacturing systems may replace human workers in factories, and self-driving vehicles may reduce the demand for truck drivers.
Overall, the impact of AI on jobs is difficult to predict, as it will depend on a variety of factors, such as the rate of technological progress, the availability of training and education programs, and government policies. However, history has shown us that technological advancement can both create and destroy jobs, and that the economy can adapt and evolve over time.
both have led to job losses due to automation, but also created new jobs for skilled workers who were needed to operate the machines or run AI-powered systems respectively
which does prove my point, no ? Operate machines across all industries vs data science ?
> Operate machines across all industries vs data science ?
Operate the machines across all industries vs run AI-powered systems across all industries.
(Those chatgpt-like responses miss a major factor, though. Automatisation of agricultural processes didn't result in 95% of the population operating agricultural machines: it freed them to do other things.)
Sooo...data scientists ? Isn't the focal point of all of this the realization that given time (most likely a lot less than people thought before gpt's) AI systems won't need human oversight ? Isn't this the goal of OpenAI ? This is why I think making comparison to whatever that was is wrong. Our current situation is too distinctive. We're being potentially freed up to do things other than cognitive tasks - by the rise of AGI, or maybe a very refined language model.
> Sooo...data scientists ?
If someone using an AI-powered system is a data scientist (?) does that make someone using an electricity-powered system an electrical engineer?
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> AI will most likely create jobs, but how many jobs can it create ? Please walk me through the parallelism with the Industrial Revolution.
The creation of AI-powered machines and systems is expected to generate new types of jobs in addition to replacing some existing ones like data entry clerks or accountants. However, there are concerns about how many net job gains will occur as a result of the automation revolution that has already begun with robots taking over repetitive tasks such as manufacturing assembly lines and warehouses.
The Industrial Revolution brought significant changes to society through mechanization in industries like textiles or steel, but it also created new jobs for skilled workers who were needed to operate the machines. Similarly, AI will create opportunities for professionals with expertise such as data scientists and machine learning engineers that can help design algorithms and train models using large datasets.
The parallelism between these two revolutions is evident in their impact on society's labor market: both have led to job losses due to automation, but also created new jobs for skilled workers who were needed to operate the machines or run AI-powered systems respectively.
So the analogy of steam engines suggests that this can be quite dangerous indeed.
Also, we do have historical evidence at how fast human society reacts to changes when technology causes great shifts in needed jobs - not fast at all. Even getting to terms with decades-long changes caused significant social upheaval and strife, as in, for example, the automation of textile industry; If the current speed of technological change would cause a disruption in jobs which happens over the course of just a few years, it will be hectic and violent even if there is the same number of new, different jobs created.
> for example, the automation of textile industry
How many horses and mules were working in the textile industry again?
The cotton gin revolutionized the industry while it was still people-powered, including by slave labor (edit: and also horse-powered); and the Luddites (some decades after Ned Ludd) rebelled not against the looms being powered by steam but rather against the Jacquard loom - an add-on to the exiting looms which allowed complex products to be weaved by unskilled people, removing their bargaining power despite not changing a thing about how the loom was powered.
"Although some were driven by animal power, most early mills were built in rural areas at fast-flowing rivers and streams using water wheels for power.[3] The development of viable steam engines by Boulton and Watt from 1781 led to the growth of larger, steam-powered mills allowing them to be concentrated in urban mill towns, like Manchester, which with neighbouring Salford had more than 50 mills by 1802.[4]"