In reality, there has been an active economic decoupling going on since 2012-13. The primary manufacturers for intermediate parts (the main portion of the supply chain that Chinese industry is competitive in) are Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese conglomerates like SK Hynix, Samsung, LG, Toshiba, Panasonic, NEC, Mitsubishi, Foxconn, etc. All these companies began leaving for ASEAN in the 2012-17 period when political crises between PRC-Japan (Senkakou/Diayou Islands), Taiwan, and South Korea (THAAD) lead all 3 countries to move FDI to Vietnam or reopen factories in Thailand and Malaysia that moved to PRC in the 2000s. And this isn't just in Hardware. Even in Software, American VC investment in PRC peaked in 2015 before crashing after that.
Basically, what I'm trying to say is those of us who have worked in or work adjacent to the policy space know that we are in a period of elevated tensions between the PRC and the US, but it's not at the "we're going to start a shooting war" level yet. The kind of hyper-hawkish and paranoid rhetoric among "normies" is ridiculous and I say that as a China Hawk. But then again, if you have intimate knowledge of how those specific agencies and governments operate, it starts looking less scary.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/06/07/anticipatin...
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/15/asia/us-air-force-f-22-guam-t...
https://www.armytimes.com/news/2022/10/11/army-prepares-for-...
People may have been talking about decoupling for 1-2 years, but the military has been sprinting to prepare for the last decade. Look at the B-21 raider, there is a reason it was one of the quickest and most efficient programs in US contracting history.
I've seen an increase of these kinds of comments and conversations after the Russian invasion in 2022, but what most normies seem to have forgotten or not realized is that Russia and Ukraine have been in an actual shooting war since 2014, and US and NATO forces have been in actual armed conflicts with the Russian Armed Forces (not just Wagner) since 2015 in Syria and Libya.
The US (and our core Asia allies - Japan, Taiwan, Phillipines, SK) and China have not been in an actual shooting conflict yet. Situations of course can degrade, but you would have a very public leadtime of 6-9 months before any such conflict.
China is forming the BRICS coalition which will see them completely sated in terms of energy and raw material needs for the foreseeable future.
They have no need or desire for war, their economy, influence and power will grow even with full decoupling from the US. War if anything is the only thing that can disrupt that so they are increasingly unlikely to be an aggressor. Why try change the state of the game if you are going to win by default with enough time?
At some point the US has to come to terms with the fact that the Western sphere of influence only covers a tiny portion of the globe and an even smaller fraction of it's population.
They are the ones driving the division but are being left on the smaller and long-term ultimately weaker side of it in terms of economic and even military potential.
They hold the upper hand for now but things don't look good if they keep moving in the same direction.
It's a numbers game in the end the East has more people, more land, more resources and more motivation.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-builds-mockups-us-...
The point is, if no one knows what the stakes are, it becomes easy for an accident to escalate into a war. A plane collision leads to war, war-games around Taiwan lead to war. The military is on autopilot without a substantial debate about what the US should do. Neither side wants WWIII but neither did the people who stumbled in WWI. Even Hitler thought he would be able to take Poland without France or the UK intervening and was not happy when they declared war. There is no winner in WWIII. It's not a numbers game because we all die.
Taiwan is part of "One China". Violate that, expect war.
China isn't really an aggressor otherwise. Little border skirmishes with India but that is going to get sorted out eventually once they finally decide on a damn border together.
It's not like they are planning invasions of Japan, Philippines etc and not really relatable to either Ukraine currently or Poland in WWII.
To me it seems pretty clear that China is happy to win economically.
US really doesn't want that to happen so there is a good chance they start a war over Taiwan to prevent it.
You're also defining "economic win" as "able to exist independently of the West" but in practice it would be returning to a Cold War like status: no winners or losers because the game isn't over yet.
While there is some level of economic integration among all the BRICS, on a Grand Strategy standpoint it's not very cohesive. The only commonality they have is supporting a multipolar world - basically a bunch of regional Monroe Doctrines. The issue is, for RIC, their near abroads all clash with each other which leads to them concentrating on each other. Finally, any conversation about the BRICS ignores the reality that SK+Japan+Taiwan are the true financial behemoths in Asia from an FDI standpoint.
They dont since Russian and Chinese SWIFT alternatives were launched.