A passenger aircraft that flies around the world at Mach 9?
arstechnica.com
arstechnica.com
In the alleged ethical dilemma I was responding to there is clearly no claim that would bar fast passenger travel per se. There is possibly a claim in a round about way if the externalities of carbon output are not taxed at their marginal cost via a carbon tax, but that is not a reason an ethical dilemma to be considered for fast travel, it is an ethical dilemma of improperly priced externalities and would again not be a reason to bar fast passenger travel.
Near as I can tell, some people will starve regardless of if someone else is rich or not.
And some folks will be rich, regardless of if someone else starves or not.
https://history-computer.com/why-is-supersonic-flight-banned...
Anyone can toss out a series A, a high mach number, and some renders. Why do these people have an article? What is the story here?
They could only fly a couple very specific paths because of the sonic booms.
https://www.thecgo.org/benchmark/congress-should-legalize-su...
Over the time the overland ban has been in place, commercial airline speeds have stagnated and even regressed. Before the ban, speeds kept increasing. From the Boeing 314 Clipper to Concorde was only 37 years. Now that Concorde has retired, we are flying slower than the cruise speed of the Boeing 707 in 1958.
(1) The linear extrapolation of maximum speed over time--a trend that is driven almost entirely by the Concorde--to 2,500 miles per hour today is ludicrous. I thought this was a joke when I first read it but the author seemed to take it seriously.
(2) The decrease in speed (which is slight, ignoring the Concorde) has more to do with deregulation and airlines competing on price post-1978 than with the speed limit. Flying somewhat slower is more fuel efficient, and when customers choose flights based on cost being fuel efficient means being competitive. The author makes no mention of this factor.
It may be reasonable to remove the speed limit, but it would almost certainly not result in a broad renaissance of supersonic commercial flight. As a niche for the rich, like the Concorde was, maybe. But the majority of travelers are still going to select cheaper subsonic flights, and PR pressure to fly more fuel efficient planes will also bolster subsonic flight.
https://www.zdnet.com/article/microsofts-azure-iot-takes-to-...
This is such a horseshit motivated reasoning claim. The speeds had nothing to do the sonic boom ban. Before the ban, the jet airliners maxed out around Mach .90. Nowadays, jet airliners max out around Mach .90. The supersonic airliners were a commercial failure. The 747 can cruise at Mach .92. Newer airlines forgo that because even the 747 never flies at that speed, because it is fuel inefficient.
How much do things change? Flights halfway around the world won't be exhausting anymore. And to be rational, there should ONLY be flights that go ONLY halfway around the world. Otherwise, it is more economically disruptive and less resource friendly.
So that means, Beijing--New York, London--San Francisco, Dubai--Hawaii, South Africa --Tokyo, etc.
The time zone change is another thing.
Compare with the g-forces of a suborbital flight.
It remains to be seen how much time could actually be saved. When I fly from Heathrow I turn up an hour beforehand and get on a plane. An hour from arrival to blastoff seems optimistic. Weather rarely affects things either.
First class is even not something I could consider. Nor really business in most cases.
I find the main exhausting part about transcontinental travel is first of all the jet lag, and secondly all the other steps that don't involve sitting in the plane. This doesn't really solve either of those problems. The actual sitting on an airplane part I find pretty relaxing.
Man I wish I felt that way. Every second I'm on a plane is torture to me. The tiny seat, that smell, the noise, the other people, my knees locked in position for hours and hours. I hate it so much.
I mean, first class travel is not within my means either but if we're talking about rockets flying half way around the world we're not talking economy seats, not for a long time. If the prices were similar I imagine a lot of people would take an extremely comfortable long flight over a short cramped, g-force intense rocket trip.
I’m not so convinced. These days we’ve got very usable internet connections on planes. Anyone can be very productive while in the air.
1. Price. Not viable, even using fantasy calculation of 2mil/flight (I suspect it will be at least 5-10 times more). You get 20000$ per ticket assuming full utilisation of 100 passengers. That's first class ticket price, or a seat at the shared business jet. So only rich people can afford it, but it is maybe realistic.
2. Utilisation - you will not find 100 people who simultaneously want to travel from A to B in the same exact hour while planning this trip weeks/months in advance. Planning trips is a vacation mode, business trips happen sporadically and quickly. This automatically throws off item #1 because then your price will skyrocket due to fewer people travelling.
3. Safety for passengers - no comments. Obvious blocker even on its own. Also Gov authorities will demand passengers training etc. (billionaire would go to months long training to save few hours of flight? lolno)
3b. Evacuation requirement. There is no possibility for quick evacuation of the 100 humans in spacesuits on the launchpad, so Gov will ban this idea.
4. G forces. Old and frail billionaires won't be able to fly this due to health concerns.
5. Landing pads. They need to be dozens of kilometers of both start and destination. This will eliminate any fantasies about saving time. And they will introduce immense additional expenses (so no 2mil flights).
6. Countries paranoia. Ballistic missiles of foreign force regularly overflying their countries in their airspace? Won't happen. The Axis of Pissed Contrarian Kids will block their airspace on principle (China, Ruzzia, all middle east, half of the South America etc.).
7. Reliability and reusability is not yet proven at all.
There are probably ten more issues with his plan if someone would sit and carefully analyze it and calculate costs.
tl;dr
Both hyperjets and passenger Starship is the same basic idea - futuristic travel via small but advanced "pods". Where "pods" is whatever futuristic looking vehicle of the day is used, with small capacity and unrealistic use case. Like hyperloop, autonomous cars, monorail cars, flying taxis, private rail vehicles etc. All complete bullshit.
1) fully multi-reusable rocket - not yet proven. It can happen, or can't. No need to imagine anything - Shuttle famously had been marketed and designed as super rapidly and fully reusable. We all know how it really went.
2a) food costs - negligible savings.
2b) inability to eat tasty or even gourmet food, in a normal human position and environment (jet or first class seat) is actually a negative factor. But let's disregard it.
3) passengers in pods ??? - what's a "pod" here? A space suit with a different brand name?
4) passengers without space suit - lolno, won't happen. Maybe it would be some fancy low profile suits, like new SpaceX ones for Dragon use only, without space walks and EVA capabilities. Even then they would still be pressurized airtight suits. This is actually yet another negative factor for my list above. Manufacturing thousands of unused space suits in different sizes, so that on any flight they would have a hundred suits in arbitrary random sizes ready at each start complex is a laughable idea. Just the suits cost 0.5 million dollars each (4 suits = 1 fantasy Starship launch price (fantasy price, not the ship, obviously)). And their maintenance is also not cheap, regular checks, repairs, replacements, cleaning, etc. Costs would be astronomical.
5) little to no staff - doubtful but maybe. 2 pilots would be needed at minimum, and I suspect one or two more aux flight engineers too. No service crew, yes, that would be cost savings. But lets look wider. Maintenance crews for the Starhip - much bigger and much more senior and technical. Dispatchers at the cosmodromes - a lot of people in every location, dozens of people per location. Aircraft can be controlled by a lone dispatcher, maybe with an assistant. And the list goes on. There will be much more people involved per 100 passengers than with any aircraft of any size.
6) 10 flights a day - funnily enough, some industries DO NOT benefit from economies of scale. Like almost at all. Starship is one of them. Regardless of the number of flights per time period, if you will increase number of rockets, their costs would almost wont go down. They will stabilize after first few units and stay constant. Same with all operational costs. If you need to fuel 1 Starship you pay X money. For 10 Starships you pay 10X and no less. If you service 1 flight you pay in aggregate Y human/hours of highly qualified workforce wages. If you service 10 flights, you will pay 10Y for human/hours. The only scalable component here is engine production, but after stabilizing manufacturing at some large number per year, cost drop would also stop.
And finally - 10 passengers per flight is not 20k, it is 200k dollars, which is 2-3 times more than entire top model large business jet rental for the whole flight. And jet is available on demand at the time and destination which YOU decide, airport is conveniently located almost in the city border and there are literally no restrictions of any kind in such flight for rich people. E2E rockets are not viable.
I used to love this idea, but when you actually think it through it's just not necessary / borderline plain dumb. Unless I am missing something, I really hope that US tax dollars are not thrown into this boondoggle.
1. This will come up on any ballistic missile radar as a threat. "Oh don't worry nuclear armed enemy, it's just cargo."
2. Unless it's a one-way trip, this would require huge infrastructure investment for "stage zero" and for logistics required for the oxygen and methane tank farms at both ends.
3. The trajectory is much more predictable than the flight path of say a C-17. This would greatly simplify interception.
4. The landing options are hugely limited compared to say a C-17. There is no go-around option. LZ got hot during transit? Too bad, we are landing!
5. I cannot identify the type of cargo that would be better served by the least stealthy delivery method possible, and most fragile landing infrastructure, only to save a dozen or so hours of transit time. Prepositioning the cargo closer to potential trouble zones and using traditional aircraft seems to be a much better idea in all cases that I can imagine.
But, to attack my point, the utility is very limited - essentially for special ops insertion an hour or so before all the conventional forces show up. A very expensive paratrooper insertion with the possibility of a one way trip.
Even then the Orbital Drop Shock Troopers banging the door down are probably too vulnerable to SAM during the last phase of flight. I guess the hope would be that operators would ignore or be confused by a massive radar blip traveling at high speed before the suicidal burn?
The more realistic case for Starship is shipping lots and lots of military tonnage to orbit. Rods from God are achievable if Starship reuse pans out, and those are truly perfect hour zero weapons before the stealth planes show up.
Surely the primary issues are that the efficiency would be dreadful and that the price would be ridiculous even for “the very wealthy”?
This would only be accessible to double if not triple digit millionaires, and is the gain in time really worth the hassle versus the comfort of a long-range business jet?
I guess you're thinking that drag increases with the square of the speed, and so for very high speed the fuel consumption should be horrendous.
This is only if all things are equal. And they are not. Two things change when you increase speed: you decrease the cross-section (via decreased angle of attack, and shorter wings) and decrease the air density (because you fly higher).
A regular commercial jet flies at about 10 km height, where the air density is about 3-4 times lower than on the ground. The airplane discussed here is supposed to fly at 50km where the air density is more than 1000 times lower than at ground level [1].
By the way, I don't think this particular project has any chance of ever becoming reality. The main problem with hypersonic vehicles is the aerodynamics, not the propulsion. These guys are simply working on the wrong problem.
[1] https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/standard-atmosphere-d_604...
When I read this, my first thought was this company almost certainly won't succeed, but it's great that there is private investment going into developing the technology. What a way better thing to explore than some "me-too" SaaS CRM thing or wherever the usual VC money flows.
That's what you get when 200 years of "progress" destroyed more things than the previous x00 000 years of human existence
> The people designing the planes of tomorrow got so caught up in the technology that they forgot to ask the very important question, “what are we building this for?”
To get from point A to point B more quickly.
This is true of any propulsion technology. Rotating detonation engines [1] are efficient, noisy and complicated. That doesn’t, at first glance, seem like a great fit for single-use applications.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotating_detonation_engine
I know I’m a bit off topic, but in 2023 are we still saying “why not” when someone comes up with another cool way to burn hydrocarbons?
Sounds implausible. Fuel usage increases drastically with speed.
All in all, I'd be extremely surprised if this technology reduces fuel consumption.
The only mention in the text about fuel usage is that they need to use a special engine with lower fuel consumption to even be able to put people and equipment on the plane. Why don't regular jets have that problem? Because they don't consume that much fuel.
Commercial airlines have an extremely strong incentive to reduce carbon emissions, more so than virtually any other industry. I wouldn't worry too much about aviation tech moving in the less efficient direction.
We say we care about the environment, but none of our actions (again, as a society) recently back that up in a real way.
Until the effects of climate change are felt in a very real way by people currently alive with something meaningful to lose, then there’s not much hope for people to do anything but look for another cool way to burn hydrocarbons.
People like to have recycling bins and eco friendly water bottles, but they don't think twice about driving a few hundred miles in a gas guzzling truck, producing as much CO2 as tens of thousands of water bottles.
Nor do they worry about firing up the AC or heating, burning loads of natural gas, far outweighing the little solar panels they put on the roof to look eco friendly.
It's all for show.
This is a strange complaint to levy while the world’s largest economies aggressively electrify their transportation systems.
Heat pumps [1]?
This is solvable with synthetic fuels and offsets.
> work on ways to reduce travel altogether
Good luck forcing quality of life reduction as an explicit policy goal. Or betting on less contact widening of our circles of empathy in the way we must to address global, long-term problems like climate change.
https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/50689/carbon-...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed...
https://www.zeit.de/zustimmung?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zeit.de...
https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/the-era-of-the-great-...
> Good luck forcing quality of life reduction as an explicit policy goal.
Either we chose to do it willingly or we'll be forced to do it.
One is chose frugality, the other is forced poverty, either way we'll eventually get there
> we chose to do it willingly or we'll be forced to do it
These outcomes are distributed differently.
That's not very convincing. In a perfect world with perfect people and infinite money we could indeed do a lot of crazy things, but then again we have to deal with reality
Your problem is based on a Mach 9 proposal and technology we don’t really have yet. We’re both necessarily speculating.
Because I'm funding their actions since 20 years now, and I wonder if I should switch to something else, like Exxon maybe.
Or... I should stop giving indirectly any €€€ to Exxon and alike, and give all the gains to Greenpeace instead.
Well, until it is solved (and it clearly isn’t- carbon offsets are basically bullshit), maybe we should work on that rather than making the amount of stuff to offset even bigger?
Forcing quality of life reduction is going to be hard enough without the world’s 1% (i.e. us) finding new ways to spew out carbon by jetting around at Mach9
False economy. Developing e.g. rotating detonation engines requires solving flame front, detonation mechanics, additive manufacturing and materials science problems. (Off the top of my head.) Do you really not see any interdisciplinary applications for any of those?
This is the failure of top-down industry planning and scientific regulation: you miss unexpected gains.
This is the failure of lack of scientific regulation: you go head first in the wall.
Do both. Does this investment in hypersonic transportation somehow prevent others from pursuing carbon reduction and cheaper transport technologies?
I wish. But unfortunately, both synthetic fuels (e-fuels) and offsets are severely lacking in terms of actually contributing to solving the problem. We do not have enough energy to produce enough synthetic fuels to cover the same amount of oil and gas that we use today. And carbon offsets are in most cases not a reliable way to actually keep carbon out of the atmosphere long-term.
> Good luck forcing quality of life reduction as an explicit policy goal
Climate change will be the greatest quality of life reduction that humanity has ever faced.
Part of the problem is that people consider being able to travel that much as "quality of life". There is nothing in human psychology that requires us to be as mobile as we are today. In fact, it is harmful that this degree of mobility is deemed "normal" by our western culture. This has to change.
We’re not jetting around at Mach 9 today. Or tomorrow. Rotating detonation engines [1] are closer to basic research than commerce. The earliest this could be technologically viable is in the 2030s; commercially, the 2050s. (That is ambitious.)
At the point we might consider scaling such kit, our options will be less limited (or we’ll have consigned ourselves to doom). If they aren’t, we can choose not to use it for passenger travel.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotating_detonation_engine
Instead, work to change the regulatory environment so that a non-eco business plan isn't profitable.
That most likely means carbon taxes, carbon caps, or carbon trading.
If slave labour is legal in North Korea that doesn’t mean we can’t criticise someone posting in hacker news about their new startup that will offshore UI testing to Pyongyang slave workshops
Carbon caps maybe but it might cripple industry as opposed to taxes which just become priced in. Maybe start with carbon caps 20% higher than today’s levels and bring them down over time. Still, unclear how to enact it. Is it per industry? How do you define that industry? What about companies in multiple industries? Is it for a single country? The price of carbon might sky rocket and you’ll get weird secondary effects like making oil companies richer yet.
Carbon trading no. I used to think it was an interesting idea to explore but it’s extremely difficult to avoid scams: well I was going to clear cut a forest, but I didn’t so now I get carbon credits. Or “donate $X while flying to offset your emissions” and it’s completely unclear where that $X actually goes (not to mention you’ve still emitted carbon and that $x hasn’t necessarily lowered carbon utilization somewhere else nor led to extra carbon sequestration.
I think ultimately we need a carbon tax that subsidizes creation of more green energy capacity from sources like solar, wind, nuclear (~30%) + long distance power distribution (HVDC) and investment in startups doing sequestration or making nuclear even cheaper (~70%).
> Instead, work to change the regulatory environment so that a non-eco business plan isn't profitable.
Huh? But the first step in identifying which regulations to put in is to apply "eco-morals," as you call them.
Countries like the U.K. already charge poor tax on airlines - fly 20 people from london to paris in a 747 and you pay far less tax than than flying 100 people on an a319, despite causing far more pollution.
Instead charge based on the length of flight the the efficiency of the plane, regardless of how many people are actually on.
You’ll probably have to cap the tax on longer flights east otherwise everyone would transfer via Istanbul or ME3, but it wouldn’t require taxing fuel, or having airlines fuel up at the other end
There are big benefits to being global transit hubs. Cheaper fuel is one way to become that.
2% of emissions.
Coal power plants 25% of emissions.
So many people going after aviation, it explains how we got this far into the problem.
Carl Sagan warned everyone about coal 40 years ago.
So, instead we talk about aviation
The people who plug something into the wall won’t know the difference if the electricity is generated from something other than coal.
And please don’t wait 40 years to fix the problem.
That delay likely increased climate change by a decade or so.
Those 25% from coal are themselves composed of several smaller percentages from different sources. The tricky part about climate change is that you have to start basically everywhere and look for opportunities to optimize, reduce, or completely eliminate emissions.
Sure, kicking the can down the road requires more miracles now. That “we need to do everything at once” is what people say after spending half a century off basically ignoring the problem.
I assure you the people who suggest flying should be limited to reduce carbon emissions are not the same people "kicking the can down the road" for half a century.
The future is cheaper more energy efficient forms of travel like bicycles, e-bikes, micromobility and dare i say, walking.