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The math here seems pretty well reasoned. But it assumes that the price doesn't change as the amount of materials increases. Can an organization just write a $10b check and get the batteries? Does anyone just have the stock of them sitting around?

I'd have to imagine not. And that it might take as long to get all the batteries built and installed as it does to build a nuke plant.

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If you cut a $10 billion check, I think you can negotiate yourself to the front of the line. Also, we are talking about the UAE - $30 billion for energy is a significantly better investment than a large number of Softbank bets.

Total global battery production seems to be 200-300GWh/year. If you want to buy approx 30% of total yearly output it's very unlikely you can negotiate your way to the head of the line. In fact, buying that much might raise global prices for batteries.

If I want enough solar panels and batteries to make my house off grid I can just write a check and the stuff shows up in a few weeks. But that doesn't scale upwards without limit. Eventually the limits on global supply kick in no matter how much you want it.

Nobody said the installation had to happen overnight. A five year plan would be impressive and still feasible.

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