Japan Breaks with U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap

FWiW I was part of a mineral and energy intelligence group started decades ago that was sold onto S&P a decade ago ( mineral arm at [1] ) and the protocol there was to report solid factoids backed by solid references and where applicable create GIS links.

That was the product many paid good money to subscribe to, not our opinions or claims.

[1] https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/met...

They're expecting our newish Labor Gov to tear up agreements to fix this.

>"The consequence of these well-intentioned policies will be that the increasing energy demand in our region will be met by coal and not by natural gas," Mr Ueda told MPs at private parliamentary function.

>"The result will be much higher global greenhouse gas emissions and will make net zero by 2050 an impossible task.

>"On the geopolitical front, Australia's 'quiet quitting' of the LNG business has potentially very sinister consequences.

>He said the question of who would replace Australian supply into the market was front and centre.

>"Alarmingly, the 'inconvenient truth' is most likely that Russia, China and Iran fill the void," he said.

I don't think this is coincidence, and I do believe Japan has a lot to lose from the often talked about 'energy wars' given they have no resources to rely on domestically to fill these requirements.

Japan is oil and resource poor and is looking to have a more stable energy future pushing for more "next gen" nuclear reactors, etc.

In the meantime they have high energy demands that need to be met somehow.

Invading Saudi Arabia is really complex because there is more oil coming from there than Saudi Arabia itself. Expect oil prices over $500 overnight.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS4Vw6cuW4M

> China is doing everything it can to signal to its own population that war with Taiwan is imminent

I haven't seen this at all, though it may well be true. What I have seen, however, is a sudden regularity in articles over the last few months on how China is a threat to Taiwan, how everyone including somehow China really seems to admit it's very much not a part of China, and how its allies need to be prepared and proactive about "defending" it from China.

Not saying Chucky isn't a bully, but I can't shake the feeling that going round telling people how you're rounding up the gang and are preparing to give him and his chums a lesson, isn't exactly the peace-maintaining de-escalation people think it is. Especially in the absence of an "if he tries something" clause.

> On the other hand, the US has shored up massive support from all of Europe ex Belarus, Japan

Regarding Japan this very news article contradicts you somehow.

> Finland joins NATO tomorrow.

Finland is insignificant from a geopolitical point of view. Its joining NATO only makes NATO less secure as a whole, rather than strenghtening it.

On the contrary, perhaps relations are not that good.

https://hindupost.in/world/target-modi-us-regime-change-mach...

China and the Saudis are the perfect match. Both are authoritarian regimes that do business. China needs liquid energy and the Saudi needs access to stuff and capital markets. The Chinese can now provide an alternative.

Call me when every European nation actually hits their required NATO spending amount. Until then, talk is cheap.

I've been wondering about that. I imagined that countries buying weapons from Russia would be worried and considering to pivot to another seller. Maybe this not because of the poor display of those weapons in combat, after all they just must be not worse than the weapons of the neighbors or of the other internal factions, but because they could run out of spare parts and new items. If Russia doesn't have enough weapons to refill its own losses, it can sell some to get money, but not as much as one year ago.

I don't think that China is an option for India, so maybe the USA, something from Europe or internal production. The latter would be best because of no strings attached, but is it feasible in the short / medium term?

We just got 100s of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians killed so we could write a huge check to the US arms industry.

> Meanwhile US relations with Europe would be at the lowest level since WW2, it would be seen as an utter abandonment and betrayal of our shared values, including US treaty guarantees on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine

If you’re referring to the Budapest agreement, it’s not a treaty. And other countries should educate themselves and understand that unilateral commitments by the President that aren’t ratified by Congress aren’t worth anything.

It's probably in their best interest not to signal "it's fine to forcibly annex someone else's lands".

Why should Japan care about it? For obvious reasons.

There are very long tensions between Japan and Russia about the Kuril Islands, that both countries have a claim on. It is very possible, that the same vague claims used on annexing Crimea today, or Donbas, would be used against Japan, and may not stop there. What is more, Japan is an ally of the United States since WW2, and seems to benefit much both militarily and economically. What is more, another raising power in Asia and growing tensions around Taiwan may have the same consequences for Asia, which may threaten japanese influence in the reqion. We are also seeing proliferation of nuclear weapons, and the threats and blackmail is rising, when deescalation is seen as a sign of weakness.

Usually, being united against common threat is the cheapest strategy, and to pay a few bucks less for oil might turn to be very expensive in the long run. If there would be no punishment for disrespecting international law, the chaos would come.

For the same reason your neighbor should care if someone breaks into your home, points a gun at your family, and says half your house is theirs now. Oh and no police are coming.

This also sets a precedent for other neighbors. Korea claims random islands and politicians sometimes call for extreme actions to defend them from Japan (Japan does absolutely nothing and Japanese people, for the most part, do not know of the existence of these islands). China claims random islands that Japan controls with some of the more extreme factions saying Okinawa in its entirety isn’t legitimately Japanese, so it should be independent. But also Okinawa used to be somewhat subservient to China, so eventually independence would mean being a province of China, just like Russia is claiming with eastern Ukraine (or even all of Ukraine, depending on the day).

And there’s also Taiwan, which if China sees people get burnt out with the Ukraine war and go back to normal trade in a year, gives them pretty good odds to rain down missiles then rush in and seize the land with minimum international backfire. And if Taiwan is easily claimed, there’s no reason not to pursue Okinawa and South China Sea territories. And South Sea conflicts would screw over Japan as well, since there’s loads of trade with Vietnam and other countries in the region, and Japan is heavily dependent on food imports from China and elsewhere.

Japan has a lot of reasons to care. If Russia’s strategy pays off (and it’s unfortunately seeming like it will, since people outside of the region are getting burnt out on it and Russian mothers will happily fight until their last son is getting picked apart by dogs), those same methods will be used in East Asia.

also they murdered millions of people in very sadistic ways