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You may have an opinion, but can you justify why you don't believe chatGPT will achieve AGI?

Existing scaling laws show that perplexity (i.e., ability to predict next tokens in text) can be lowered by increasing model size and adding more data.

Why would a model that is better than us at predicting what words would occur next in arbitrary text not be an AGI?

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> Why would a model that is better than us at predicting what words would occur next in arbitrary text not be an AGI?

Because it is just predicting text at this point? Sometimes laughably poorly?

Because the appearance of intelligence may only be that?

Oh and the best one…

Have you been paying attention to how often humans royally fuck something up within inches of the finish line?

There’s a lot more to it than math.

But that’s not the same as your first question. The leading one.

The tweet said December. That’s a long ways off, relatively speaking. We will see.

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