* Amount of training required (crystallized intelligence/ability)
* Amount of intrinsic ability required (fluid intelligence/ability)
Some jobs require neither a huge amount of training nor inherent ability. These are paradoxically often hard to automate, because they typically require a lot of rote physical movements that are difficult for machines (e.g. fast food cook). There are few white collar jobs that fit into this category, since they’ve already been automated away.
Some jobs require a lot of training but don’t require a huge amount of inherent ability. For example, after years of training, most anyone will have the skills to be an excellent truck driver. The tech equivalent would be a generic CRUD developer. These are the jobs most at risk for LLM automation. As I see it, a large proportion of white collar jobs fall into this category as well, and that’s where we’ll see the most economic disruption.
Finally, some jobs require both training and ability. Regardless of how long and hard they train, most people will never be a professional athlete, because they simply lack the innate ability. The tech equivalent is something like a kernel developer or machine learning scientist. These jobs will be hardest to replace with an LLM, since they require totally novel ways of thinking that are not baked into the LLM’s training corpus. A lot of blue collar jobs are here as well: good electricians, plumbers, mechanics, contractors, etc. require both years of experience and a high level of intelligence, since every house/car/jobsite is different.