Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War: Take Him Seriously
foreignaffairs.com
foreignaffairs.com
That's what a military is meant to do, be prepared to fight. That's true all over the world. China's military budget is still smaller than that of the US's. Further, our military budget is partly a product of the corruption and cronyism between defense contractors and the US gov't. That's also one (of many) reasons why we wouldn't win a war with China imo.
The US gov't would be better served working on the numerous problems we have at home. Obviously that won't impress anyone at board level at various defense contractors.
If he'd been patient about Hong Kong's transition and "one country two systems" he'd be most of the way to reeling in Taiwan by now, instead of prepping for war and cosying up to Putin.
Then there's the Covid strategy. Zero Covid made perfect sense before vaccines were available and allowed most of China to carry on as normal through 2020. Sticking with that policy all the way through into late 2022 with no sign of an exit strategy was pure stupidity though. Then there's the breathtaking petulance of dropping all the Covid restrictions suddenly with absolutely no mitigation, as collective punishment to the whole population in retaliation to widespread protests. Xi really does not like to look like an idiot, but everyone there must now surely have suspicions that he may be one.
Total control of the media and the Great Firewall have allowed the Party to manipulate public opinion pretty effectively, but I'm not entirely convinced support for the government could be maintained if Xi starts a war. Hopefully Xi feels the same way.
Should we believe the official Chinese line on number of Covid deaths this year?
China kept at zero COVID because they were concerned that a lot of elderly people would die, who weren't enthusiastic about Sinovac having grown up during the cultural revolution. But it turns out, they didn't have much to worry about.
Basically Stalin 2.0.
Dumb, but aggressive.
I'm not an expert in Chinese politics, maybe I should check what the real experts are saying.
Who's everyone? Do you mean the political and pundit class of the US and the anglo world?
China's economy continues to grow while the west is stagnating economically, culturally. The US has unfettered gun violence, a racist criminal justice system, an ever worsening homeless problem, opioid addiction, most people only one medical emergency away from not being able to afford their rent, awful education system, people living paycheck to paycheck, rising cost of living while real wages have been stagnant for decades........
China handled the COVID epidemic far better than the US did. Approval rating for Chinese gov't and US gov't don't even compare. And how the Chinese populace views its future vs how most westerners view theirs, much the same.
>....have allowed the Party to manipulate public opinion pretty effectively
uhhh, we might want to read up on the mass media in the US/West since we're talking about manipulating public opinion.
I somewhat agree with your appraisal of the state of the US, based on what I hear & read. China has big problems internally too though - not least a massive looming demographic crisis. The absence of a free press, free speech and an independent judiciary are definite negatives. Corruption remains part of everyday life in the forms of bribery and nepotism - if you're seriously ill you'd better have connections to senior hospital staff or local government (or lots of money, but that kind of comes with the connections anyway).
Mass media in the West is largely in the hands of private interests with their own agendas, it's not in lockstep with whoever is in power. Arguably the media controls the politicians, not the other way around. It's a totally different problem, it's mainly polarised and divided our populations which is pretty much the opposite of what Chinese state controlled media does.
On it's own that's not a controversial thing to say. But headlines like "Xi Jinping says he is preparing china for war" don't tell the whole story. China is only preparing itself in case things get worse globally. The US is often the aggressor, and the US has been trying to destabilize China for a very long time. The Chinese government knows this.
>Mass media in the West is largely in the hands of private interests with their own agendas, it's not in lockstep with whoever is in power.
I would argue that these "private interests" have a big part to play in getting people into power, and for influencing those in power.
baseless rhetoric
> If he'd been patient about Hong Kong's transition and "one country two systems" he'd be most of the way to reeling in Taiwan by now, instead of prepping for war and cosying up to Putin.
The CPC were reacting in part to outside meddling and interference into the affairs of HK.
> Sticking with that policy all the way through into late 2022 with no sign of an exit strategy was pure stupidity though.
damned if you do
> Then there's the breathtaking petulance of dropping all the Covid restrictions suddenly with absolutely no mitigation, as collective punishment to the whole population in retaliation to widespread protests.
damned if you don't
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
deaths per 1 million:
…
015 USA 3,451
024 UK 3,057
220 China 0,004
baseless rhetoric
> Total control of the media and the Great Firewall have allowed the Party to manipulate public opinion pretty effectively, but I'm not entirely convinced support for the government could be maintained if Xi starts a war. Hopefully Xi feels the same way.
because the mass media in the West is a bastion of diverse opinion & thriving political dissent and not at all a coterie of subservient drooling establishment-worshiping lapdogs
DAE think this kind of translation is evidence of subtle racism? I find myself reacting negatively to such simplistic English, and reflecting poorly on the speaker, until I remind myself that it's the translator's choice of words I'm reacting to, not whatever the speaker actually said. Moreover, I find translations like this are more often applied to certain languages than others, especially Chinese, and especially in this article.
Supplemental theory: this very direct and literal style of translation may be common in the political sphere, which is perhaps why I associate it with translations of Chinese in particular. However, in this case the subtle racism or at least tendency to make Chinese leaders seem less intelligent does far more damage to recipients of these translations than to the original speakers, insofar as it leads them to underestimate their opponents.
Or I may just be overreacting to a poor/style-lacking translation.
It turns out that you'll find this on globaltimes and chinadaily, and it is basically a literal translation of what was said/reported in Chinese that just doesn't come off very well in English. I think it is more of a cultural translation that isn't being done rather than any actual bias in the translation. And doing a cultural translation wouldn't be very accurate with what was said.
> Otherwise, it was the translator's choice to use the stylistically lacking translation, and that could be bias.
Again, all you have to do is read China's own pro-CPC English translations in the English media they ship to the world to figure out that there isn't any particular bias from the article on this point.
Or you could argue that the way China teaches English translations isn't very good, which is valid. I'm pretty sure in either case the translator was probably trained in a mainland Chinese university.
Unless they get side-tracked by the looting of their own country like happened to Russia under Putin and his cronies, the Chinese can quickly iterate on their mistakes, correct them and move forward.
The CCP's complete disregard for human rights, environmental issues, copy rights and international law, accelerates this progress even further.
It is pretty unbelievable where China is today from just 20 years ago in terms of their geopolitical influence, not just as a manufacturing and trading giant shipping furniture and apparel.
Meanwhile in the US our incompetent members of Congress routinely get deadlocked on inconsequential issues letting our adversaries sprint through an open field where it is now very difficult if not impossible to tackle them.
If the CCP says they are preparing for war it is because they are ready for it
Unlike Russia, they are always two or three steps ahead of what they make us believe.
We also have to contemplate the possibility that Xi has calculated that the United States won't risk nuclear war to save Taiwan, even if doing so may be the only way to deter China from invading.
If I was president, I would hold a prime time address from the Oval Office to announce that any Chinese attempt to conquer or blockade Taiwan will be met with nuclear strikes on the Chinese mainland, including civilian targets. I would state my intent to sacrifice the lives of millions of Americans to protect Taiwan if that's what it takes. And to get the point across, I would detonate a nuke in atmosphere over an empty stretch of ocean between Guam and Hawaii, and release the footage for the world to see.
Yes, this would be insane.
But Xi's advisers may have determined that they can win a conventional war with the US over Taiwan, and that the People's Liberation Army Navy could keep the Strait of Malacca free from USN interference.
Xi may, correctly or not, have concluded that only such a threat could deter him. And that a US president is unlikely to issue such a threat.
We have to be prepared for the possibility that China will gain control over TSMC's foundries and use them to blackmail the West and any other unfriendly countries into submission.
If this is correct, then there are only three options: copy TSMC's capabilities in the West, destroy the foundries during a conflict, or deter China from invading. Or deny them a victory if they try.
But I don't want to hear "China wouldn't dare", "there's only a small window of opportunity where the weather allows an amphibious landing", "It would be the largest military operation in history", etc. China may have calculated that they can overcome any logistical hurdle. They're not stupid. They know all of this. But at some point, the hardliners will lose patience and demand results. And the hardliners happen to be in charge.
A US president is irrelevant. What are the elites willing to do?
You know, if the day comes that China does better Chips than the US, it won’t matter for the average joe
If China tries to invade anyway after these threats, I'm asking the military aide who follows the president at all times to open the football and I'm transmitting an order to Strategic Command to begin nuclear strikes on China. But that shouldn't happen because China is supposed to be deterred.
Second, you seen to think that China can't retaliate for nuclear strike. It wouldn't be risking millions of Americans but hundred of millions. China has built a lot of ICBMs recently, now have 400 ICBMs and 400 warheads. Plenty to destroy every city in America.
Third, while China can blockade Taiwan, the US can blockade China. The main thing that China imports that wouldn't stop is oil from Middle East. Blockading the Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca, or Indian Ocean would be within US or allies navies.
The US can't sign a treaty with a state it doesn't even recognize. And recognizing Taiwan as an independent country - a basic prelude to signing a treaty with that country - would cross China's red line and compel them to invade. Also, the bread and butter of any such treaty would be to extend America's nuclear umbrella over Taiwan. You can avoid the legal complications if you issue the threat in the first place.
> Second, you seen to think that China can't retaliate for nuclear strike. It wouldn't be risking millions of Americans but hundred of millions. China has built a lot of ICBMs recently, now have 400 ICBMs and 400 warheads. Plenty to destroy every city in America.
Reread my post. I would threaten mutually assured destruction if China invades. That should deter them. If it doesn't, may god have mercy on us all, because those ICBMs are being fired. A threat is not credible if you're not prepared to make good on it.
> Third, while China can blockade Taiwan, the US can blockade China. The main thing that China imports that wouldn't stop is oil from Middle East. Blockading the Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca, or Indian Ocean would be within US or allies navies.
The US should first try to break the blockade through conventional means. If that fails, nukes are on the table.
It makes a lot more sense to gradually escalate instead of go to nuclear threat. It should be reserved for nuclear use. The US and Taiwan could defeat China conventionally.
I think at this point those millions will tear you to shreds.