"Other things being equal" means they'll continue the current state of never gaining territory. And perhaps again losing large chunks of it, like back in Sept and Nov.
How does that translate to a win for them?
Keep in mind that this is all coming from an armchair historian. It's easy to have a selection bias when comparing such things.
Had they not had the logistical and material support from the US in the first few years of the war, it’s quite possible the whole course of the war could have been changed.
The "Great patriotic war", as WW2 is usually referred to in Russia, also conveniently starts in 41 - not in 39. The reason being, that USSR were allied with nazi-germany 39-41 (which is also conveniently never mentioned).
A country a third of its size (in population), that -- very much like the Soviet Union itself in WW2 -- is resolutely determined not to be subjugated.
It ensures that the crimean peninsula remains russian. It ensures that the north crimean canal stays open providing fresh water. It ensures land access to crimean peninsula. It captures some of the best agricultural lands.
The idea that Russia is looking to conquer all of Ukraine and more is simply war propaganda. It makes no geopolitical sense for them to really conquer much more than they already have.
Russia’s goal would be to destroy the ukrainian army and state apparatus to the point where Ukraine concedes the land they currently under Russian control.
They probably never wanted to permanently hold all of the territory (especially not predominantly Ukrainian-speaking regions in the west).
But it definitely was their stated objective from the very beginning to decapitate the country's current leadership, and install a permanently "friendly" (to Russia) government in its place. Not to simply grab the 4 regions in the east -- which they've still not been able to fully take a hold of, despite explicitly claiming to "annex" them.
The idea that the disastrous initial attempt to encircle Kyiv (and the failed attempt to take Odesa) was some kind of brilliantly executed feint to obscure their "true" current (and ever-shrinking) objectives - that, I'm afraid, it simply "war propaganda".
It makes no geopolitical sense for them to really conquer much more than they already have.
Nothing about what the Russian Federation has done makes any kind of geopolitical sense. It's all just a giant (and incredibly murderous and destructive) fantasy.