Reducing inequality could see world population fall to 6B | Hacker News Reader

Reducing inequality could see world population fall to 6B

newscientist.com

22 pointspaulpauper12 comments

"...suggests that if the world invested in a “Giant Leap” to reduce poverty and inequality, the world population would peak at around 8.5 billion people in 2040 and decline to 6 billion by the end of the century."

Like a great leap forward?

Or maybe focus on the things that actually lift people out of poverty, free markets and rule of law.

> things that actually lift people out of poverty, free markets

I'd love to hear this reasoning explained.

the last thirty years of history: https://ourworldindata.org/is-globalization-an-engine-of-eco...

Capitalism taking the credit for undoing a tiny fraction of the damage caused by colonialism.

https://archive.ph/epYI4

As we lift Africa out of poverty, which will happen during this century- we will see the population explode past 8bn. It will decline everywhere else but explode in Africa as they begin to industrialize and become more stable.

> As we lift Africa out of poverty, which will happen during this century

wait what? how? all of it?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/an-end-to-extreme-pov...

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2019-07-...

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AFR/africa/population-...

> Which will happen during this century

Can we be so certain? I know people who have worked for decades on development in Africa, and they tend to be pretty pessimistic. Then again, a century is a long time, and there are different levels of poverty.

> Then again, a century is a long time, and there are different levels of poverty.

Yes, once the continent is out of abject poverty then industrialization can occur - it will go very quickly... ~50 years probably for it to happen. Recall that China took ~35 years to go from an impoverished farming industry to the globe's largest industrial company, eclipsing that even of the US.

Once industrialization begins, the population will boom. With India and China looking to outsource their industries, Africa is the likeliest place for great investments.

Edit: yes I'm aware that Africa is composed of multiple countries with different interests and end-goals. But it will be a domino effect once it begins.

China and Africa have different people, culture, history, politics, etc. There is no fundamental reason that the success of China will automatically be replicated. And things can move in the opposite direction too; for example South Africa once had the most developed infrastructure of sub-Saharan Africa, but that is all collapsing now.

I am probably being very optimistic, and obviously China's success won't be replicated exactly.

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