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What some are arguing is that the future is now. A 1-in-20 chance of another AI winter is not worth serious consideration given the enormous progress in last 5. The challenges do not involve hardware at this point.

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You cannot say that with any certainty. While GPT4 shows great promise it’s still not clear at all that the current architecture can keep scaling up. Presumably they’re already using all the data they have access to. So what’s left to improve performance? Changes in architecture, some of which could require significantly different hardware.

The massive amount of money going into AI could invariably lead to the development of new and even more successful architectures. Although speculating on what and when would be like perfectly predicting the development of the Transformer architecture while living in 2010 or something.

> What some are arguing is that the future is now

Yes, I know. But there's no way to know if these people are right, right now. That will only be possible to know in the future, looking back, so it's still "predicting the future".

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