Padrino’s best bet is to appeal to a younger, fresher group of programmers who haven’t spent years learning Rails, just as Rails appealed to a younger, fresh generation of programmers who hadn’t spent years learning Struts. Those folks will find applications for it where Rails actually gets in their way. As they reinvent parts os Rails, they’ll invent new things that fit their model domain better than Rails does.
I’d bet that if Padrino becomes successful, it will do so with ORMs and other gems that aren’t popular on Rails because they haven’t been invented yet.
If you are resistant to adopting a new framework and having to reinvent a bunch of stuff, congratulations. You may be an early adopter or hacker in other areas of your profession, but as far as web development goes, you’re a conservative.