answer honestly any parents of teens here - would you volunteer your kids to defend Taiwan?
I have two 18 year-olds who will be on the first plane to Canada in the event...they're not dying so Apple can secure its relationship with TSMC
a) Canada would probably be involved. Just like it was with 1st gulf war, and Afghanistan, and Kosovo, and pretty much most other things other than the Iraq war. (And while we didn't send troops, there was still all sorts of backchannel support)
b) This ain't the 60s. Unless your kids are Canadian citizens our gov't would just deport them back.
Also it's not like the US has or needs a draft. By the time conscription became such a thing in such a war, the world would be so far f*cked that Canada wouldn't be a place to hide :-(
(Also just because they're Canadian citizens, we have extradition treaties with the US, and if they were breaking a US law, there'd be process. Dodging the draft is a crime. The 1960s Pearson and Trudeau govt's tolerated Vietnam draft dodgers. I'm not convinced a 21st century one would do the same)
War sucks. Let's not have one.
It does have a draft, it’s just not active. You still have to register for selective service as an adult male.Now , I don’t think that it’s ever going to made active again.
As far as needing a draft, there does seem to be a shortage of recruits, notably in the Army and Navy. The army has ads now basically guaranteeing new recruits choice of their duty station, and I’ve seen some interesting signing bonuses from the Navy, but most of those big bonuses are for things like physicians, where you’ll make a ton more money somewhere else anyway and probably aren’t hurting for work.
Honestly though, watching my father try to navigate his mid and late military career, and seeing my brother navigate his early career, I’m not shocked no one wants to join. They seem to be more interested in creating middle managers and bureaucrats than soldiers and fighters. I do have a friend who seems to enjoy it, but mostly because it provided him stability to support his daughter.
Americans talk big but isolationism has always been a powerful force. And not every president is a Roosevelt or Lincoln.
We have two oceans and Canada. I have seen what Europeans say about dumb Americans like me, and I’m not dying for them. Same with Sorks.
Good luck guys.
China is in possession of ICBMs with a reported range of 15,000 km, allowing them to threaten U.S. interests with or without intervening oceans. Unless you truly regard the U.S. has having no interests abroad, in which case, once war breaks out, the economic chaos that follows may disabuse you of that perspective.
the only real losers are the Taiwanese who now don't own those factories anymore (but are otherwise fine - they will be on the first planes out)...and American soldiers who are dead or maimed
...and still, no one seems willing to answer if they or their kids should be among the dead/maimed
rich Americans with opportunities are far too comfortable about asking poor/disadvantaged Americans (i.e almost everyone who joins the armed forces) to die for oil, phones etc
bring back the draft, get kids from Stanford and MIT CS potentially on the front line and you will see a 180 change in almost all US policy
I've heard that in case of invasion TSMC labs would be rendered useless. Suppliers like ASML will stop support and selling new goodies as well. China has only one real option: keep improving what they already have and hope to match competitors. The way things going they have a chance.
this is a narrow view of the possible outcomes. a huge amount of our military and intelligence capabilities, as well as much of our advanced manufacturing (i.e. the things that make us relevant on the world stage), completely depend on TSMC's chips. China controlling TSMC could remove the USA from the world stage in a single decade by simply refusing to sell us the best (or any) chips.
Similarly, military and intelligence sources would likely volunteer to stop using TSMC chips immediately since Chinese control could mean those chips are compromised through-and-through.
Basically, Chinese control of Taiwan represents an existential threat to US global power and the US would likely go to the mat over it. Paradoxically though, I think this fact also reduces the likelihood of open conflict over Taiwan, because unlike Putin, Xi does not appear to let his ego drive bad decisions.
The most likely outcome is a new Cold War, with smaller conflicts around the chip industry in Taiwan, most prominently seen at the moment with China's continued expansion into the South China Sea. They cannot risk open conflict over TSMC directly, but they can try to flex their growing naval power over the shipping lanes.
If there will be a conflict over Taiwan, it will likely not happen until the 3nm fab in Arizona is operational in 2026 (planned). We'll likely see a huge shift in the dynamic once we have US chip supply lines secured inside our borders. The paradox will be resolved and Taiwan will be vulnerable to invasion since the US won't need to risk lives and material defending it's chip supply chain, but China will still want to control advanced chips at the level of TSMC's production since while they have made huge strides to catch up over the last several decades, they are still struggling to match TSMCs level of expertise (as we all are).
The industrial areas of Ukraine near the Russian border are gone. Mariupol is in ruins.
Why don't you instead ask that of the Chinese? How many of them are willing to go to the bottom of the ocean in order to complete a pointless and petty war? There's a lot of hostile water between the mainland and the sovereign nation of Taiwan that they'll have to cross, many would die. And for what?
The USA has one of the largest and most ready navies in the world, if it came to a fight, China - which has very little naval experience in war as far as I can remember - might find itself massively outclassed between the US and possibly Japan.
What then happens in a war of attrition where China can't win, but won't back down?
The allies will basically blockade China until it chokes to death on it's own hubris, and industrial production will return to the US and Europe.
I wonder how many people would feel like they have to show up if you simply texted them personally, out of the blue, and put the country in a state of fear via the media.