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Comment by t-3 | Hacker News Reader

2035 is way too close to be practical. Electrical infrastructure, charging stations, public transport and rail all need to be beefed up to make a full EV transition realistic. The increased expense and shorter lifetime of EVs is bad enough (but could plausibly be improved to near parity in a decade), making it near impossible to own a car without living in a house is another thing altogether.

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2035 is for a ban of sales of new vehicles isn't it? That seems completely viable to me.

We're at well over 50% now and set to hit near 100% in 2025 here in Norway. We heard the same skepticism here over the years, so it's remarkable how easy the transition has been so far. Challenges, yes, but nothing too hard. Since we started the transition several years earlier some things have been much harder than it'll be for latecomers. When I got my EV 50kW was the fastest non Tesla charging option.

Since electricity is now billed by the hour, and smarter homes can eliminate high power peaks, there doesn't seem to be any big grid infrastructure upgrades needed.

Do you have any concrete numbers for EV lifetimes? I know some models have been problematic. With Nissan Leaf, which is a worst case scenario due to a very small battery with no cooling, yes you see the battery is basically useless for a car after 10+ years. But then you see quite a lot of cases of people buying a new battery to keep the car going. After all, the rest of the drivetrain can last far longer and with a new battery it's as good as new, or better (can get longer range). The old battery can be used for grid storage or the materials can be recycled. Both of those are already being done commercially. So I'm not sure I see any fundamental issues with the lifetime of EVs.

It's only the sale of them. People keep their cars for 10-15 years. If we don't even stop selling them in 2035 they'll still be on the roads past 2050.

I think I read that half of all cars that will be on the road in 2035 have already been sold.

Moreover, there will be millions of new cars sold to holding companies in December 2034 and then sold as "used" in 2035-2040 with zero kilometers on them. Same things happened every time there was a new emissions regulation in EU.

Given all the loopholes and the lifespan of modern cars, I would say 2035 is ridiculously late and it should have been 2025 or 2030 at most.

The goal is to stop manufacturing, the ban achieves that.

Who is going to want to buy "new" ICE cars in Europe after 2035?

Gasoline sale is already plummeting by up to 30% a year some places in Norway. The people who drive the most are the first to convert to EVs since the economics make more sense for them, and newer cars get driven more than very old ones. So EVs will soon dominate the number of miles driven and thus the impact on fuel sale will be larger than you'd think.

By 2025 I think you'll start to see gas stations closing down in Norway. By 2035 you'll see the same across Europe. You'll still have gas stations here and there. But it's not going to be as close and convenient as it is now. Even just a few gas stations closing down will get people to panic about whether they'll have a local gas station in the near future. Who will want to buy a new ICE vehicle in that situation?

Sure, there will be some enthusiasts. But not enough that it's worth thinking about.

I think Norway is far ahead of other parts of the world, due to being rich and the tax structure around ICEs.

But I do wonder about the the gas stations. It is well known, that gas stations make most of their money on snacks and carwashes and random stuff you buy and not on the gas. Does that break down or will people in EVs still stop in gas stations to buy a snack? Maybe on roadtrips yes, on random visits no?

Will there be small shops selling snacks and coffee next to charging stations as well? Could gas stations pivot to being charging stations? (I guess not the inner-city ones, due to space, but the highway rest stop ones could).

I don't know what it's like in the rest of the EU, but in Ireland there are entire neighborhoods where everyone is forced to park on already crowded streets overnight. Getting these people into electric cars with guaranteed access to power each day requires a radical change in infrastructure.

Or, it needs a re-think of human transportation in general. If people are forced to park on the street, that indicates to me that these people are living in neighbourhoods that were built before the car. Why not build public transportation that meets the needs of those people to reduce dependence on a cars?

Because people want cars?

They want them less when public transit is very good.

It doesn’t have to be all or nothing.

That is true. The changes we will need to make will be significant. There is a change that some technology will cross the threshold of being the best-in-class or the-next-best-thing and the adoption will skyrocket. And those things might change very switfly.

Likely problem is with industries that are more difficult to electrify. Like aviation.

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