> With that in mind, executives are striking a realistic tone within the company. This isn’t going to be a hit product right out of the gate. But it could follow a similar trajectory as the Apple Watch.
Their confidence is blinding.
Their confidence is blinding.
If it follows the Apple Watch, then it will be the undisputed market leader in the product segment, which honestly I think it will. The competition is very weak. Meta's efforts have largely failed with the MetaVerse and their whole ecosystem seams very stagnant. Valve and HTC aren't doing much in this space. Sony's PSVR is promising, but it is completely locked into the PlayStation ecosystem, so I see it being limited just to first person games for the most part. Microsoft has completely abandoned the consumer market with HoloLens and prefer to sell very expensive headsets to industry and the military instead.
This is a very ripe market for Apple to disrupt if they can execute well. Very reminiscent of the smart watch market before the Apple Watch.
What is there to disrupt?
Really think about that statement for a minute. Maybe telepresence if you market it right, but the money is all in gaming and social use. And if you're gonna buy a headset, would you rather get the $300 one with Beat Saber and VR Chat, or cough up $3,000 for FaceTime in VR?
I think Meta has done all they can here. It's frankly a shock they managed to sell over 10 million Quest units, it would be a miracle if Apple can ship over a million at the price they're considering. Even if they do get the coveted iPhone-level install-base (fat chance), Apple cut ties with industry standards like OpenXR and SteamVR years ago. Their entire ecosystem will have to get built up from scratch, and they'll also have to fend off competitors selling units at literally 10% of the price.
For Apple to become the undisputed market leader in this product segment, they'd need a lot more than just a headset that exists. This project is looking less Apple Watch and more Apple Newton.
This isn't about disruption, this is about creating a new market.
If I think of myself as an example, I don't have interest in the gaming angle. If it is comfortable enough and the experience is great, I might buy it for telepresence, if for no other reason than richer visits with my children on the other side of the country. Maybe there is some other use I would buy into, but I'm sure not seeing it yet.
Working with the industry seems like it could stand to make a lot more money for Apple. As a Quest competitor it's a hard pill to swallow, but as a high-quality dev kit for cross-platform VR/AR experiences, it could carve a lucrative new segment for itself.
On the other hand they wholeheartedly embraced gaming on mobile (their AppStore page is nothing but gaming, realy), so who knows
At $3000 it is already nothing like the Apple Watch. That's the real deal breaker that I see.
I have not found a use for a VR headset or the Apple Watch, beyond as a toy, or fashion accessory. Even then, it's been so long since I've worn a watch that wearing a watch is awkward. Yet apparently Apple sells a lot of them, and it is the smart watch with the highest number of global sales.
It was only once I started using it for its health tracking capabilities and turned off many of the annoying notifications that I started regularly wearing it.
Is it as essentially as having my phone with me when I leave the house? Ultimately, no, and it does require more thought about how to squeeze the most utility out of it (when compared to a smartphone) but I think the reason it’s so popular is the flexibility it affords:
- Sport tracking watches are great at tracking everything down to a fine detail BUT you wouldn’t want to be seen wearing them out to a dinner
- Traditional (non-smart) watches look very nice as a fashion accessory BUT are useless for fitness and integrating other data into the faster-to-read watch form factor
Particularly as it didn't show the time. (Initial versions didn't have enough power to keep the display on all the time).
Apple finally got me by fixing that and by making their phones too large to carry around while running. Grrr. But glad they did.
It's been eye-opening. The fitness and sleep tracking are fantastic, and if you are having issues in that area, potentially life-changing.
I was also resisting contactless payment, being a typical German "cash is good" guy. And I still think cash is good. But during the pandemic everything went contactless, and Apply Pay with the watch is just super convenient. Always there, no PIN to enter or signature to verify, ever.
Life-saver when my wallet got stolen on holiday.
And of course super-comfy listening to podcasts, books or music while exercising or on public transport.
Since I got it with the cell radio, I nowadays often just leave my phone at home. Who needs to carry that around? And no phone, no social media :-)