Indeed we do[0].
[0] https://www.iri.org/resources/iri-ukraine-poll-shows-strong-...
[0] https://www.iri.org/resources/iri-ukraine-poll-shows-strong-...
We can look at the general support for the Ukrainian establishment instead.
According to that survey,
The polling shows that in February 2023
31% strongly approve
40% somewhat approve
7% somewhat disapprove
4% strongly disapprove
18% difficult to answer/no answer
of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. This is a drop from 48% strongly approving in April 2022.
The polling also shows that the percent that strongly approve of the activities of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky have dropped from 74% in April 2022 to 58% in February 2023.
And support of The Parliament of Ukraine is low, with only 9% strongly approving.
So, I don't think that there's strong enough support of The Ukrainian establishment to conclude that the population agrees with their stance that "the war will end when the Ukraine wins the war" (not that I'm sure that is the Ukrainian establishment's stance).
>> Do we know if that's the view of the average Ukrainian?
Unless I misunderstood the question being discussed, it is answered precisely and directly.
"Do you believe that Ukraine will win the war?": 82% yes, 15% likely yes
"What will be the territorial boundaries of Ukraine as a result of this war?" 74% internationally recognized borders, 8% w/ Donbas but w/o Crimea, 9% status quo ante bellum.
These people didn't suffer for 13 months to accept some half-ass appeasement of a ceasefire to give Putin some breathing room to regroup.
I think this is not the case. The policy "we won't accept peace until we achieve x" is very different to "we won't accept peace until we achieve x conditional on the achievement of x being probable"[0]. The first implies a kind of "to the last Ukrainian"/"you'll have to take it from my cold, dead hands" attitude, the latter doesn't.
[0] A conditional such as this is implied by your claim that "The policy stance is directly implied by the probability estimate": if the probability estimate leads to the stance, then it stands to reason that the stance may change if the probability estimate changes, which would (in this case) contradict the very nature of the stance (specifically, the "to the last Ukrainian" aspect discussed above).
https://www.iri.org/news/national-endowment-for-democracy-ne...
Wanna know what they think of China? The answer is, they don't think of China. This is because, while China can afford the big boy pants and has probably already purchased them, they haven't put them on yet.