Hacker News Reader

Comment by pydry | Hacker News Reader

And they could ramp up again, but it's not going to make a difference in the next six critical months especially without putting the economy on a war footing and suppressing civilian production like they did last time.

If China decides to supply Russia, it'll make even less of a difference. Russia already outproduces the US in steel (key input into shells, and a bottleneck in both wars). China outproduces by a factor of 10.

View on HN

Nothing is "critical" about the next six months. In fact, it's possible nothing much will happen in the next six months, if Ukraine opts to spend it training the >100k troops it just called up during the late fall and winter, waiting for the armour from the West to be delivered, and building up a stockpile of ammo. Ukraine has this choice because Russia just exhausted its offensive capability in a mid-winter offensive that didn't accomplish much and has stalled out. Russia is spent as an offensive force until the mid-summer at the very earliest.

If China decides to supply Russia, it won't be in the quantities sufficient to make much of a difference, because they don't wish to trigger significant retaliatory sanctions, certainly not right now when the Chinese economy is in a vulnerable state of coming out of the COVID-era funk. China significantly underproduces Western countries in terms of military industrial complex, quantity but especially quality. I don't want to pull numbers out of thin air but it's Nx, N > 1.

China outproduces by a factor of 10.

You mean Chinese steel, which is terrible, barely passable junk?

Yes, great for mission critical stuff.

Ukraine doesn't need artisanal, hand crafted shells. It needs 10x more than it already has.

Russia doesn't need shells exploding early, or combat gear parts snapping under load.

And that's what Chinese steel does. Fail.

They've only been able to make ball point pens, with a proper round steel ball, for a decade!

They built the largest high speed rail network in the world in less than 20 years.

And probably sourced the steel out-of-country, as they have for other things.

You're wrong.

Anshan Iron and Steel: https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/ansteel-co...

Panzhihua Iron and Steel: https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101439663/The-exclusive-s...

Baotou Iron and Steel: http://innermongolia.chinadaily.com.cn/baotou/2020-01/03/c_4...

Wuhan Iron and Steel: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/WUHAN-IRON-AND-ST...

Handan Iron and Steel: https://www.gneesteel.com/news/industry-news/hbis-successful...

You're wrong.

Sounds like a dangerous railway, then.

It’s not, statistically. But don’t let me stop you from clinging to ignorance.

Thanks for all the stats.

That said, clearly they've just been lucky. Sadly, it won't last, and people will pay the price.

Because Chinese steel is junk.

It's junk based on what? Racial inferiority? Why feed stats to someone who isn't interested in reality?

I knew it would come. "Racism". The last refuge of the rascal, throwing dispersion.

Stating reality in China, is not racism.

It's junk because it's of poor quality, and even worse, poor quality control. Personal experience has shown me so, steel product from China is junk.

And no, I won't disbelieve my eyes, and experiences, nor will the many other people I know who have experienced what Chinese "steel" is like.

Car parts, every manner of tool, I've seen steel snap like twigs, screwdriver ends break off, plyers deform when used, brake calipers snap, while North America made parts do not, including tools 50 years old, rusted, stronger than Chinese steel junk.

Chinese steel is junk. Everyone knows this. It's junk.

And calling me a racist is utterly pathetic.

Well China has produced half of the steel in the world and half of the finished steel products for many years. I can't think of a rational reason to believe that all that steel is constantly snapping "like twigs."

https://worldsteel.org/steel-topics/statistics/world-steel-i...

Producing half the steel(which seems highish, but not impossible), doesn't mean it is good steel.

And tools I buy with Chinese steel, do snap like twigs. Other steel does not. Because it's not junk.

Like Chinese steel does.

Because it's junk.

Are these tools all contemporaneous of each other and sold at the same price point? China will sell you anything you want. What most companies want today is planned obsolescence.

Ah, the old "but western companies demand cheap, so china makes cheap" argument.

A nice, classic deflection. Goes right up there with the racist deflection.

No. Western companies ask for spec, Chinese companies say "sure" when they bid, but then just make junk.

With junk parts.

Such as junk Chinese steel. Because they can't make quality steel, because the QA, and knowledge, and capability, and work culture isn't there. Note again, how it was only the early 2010s, when Chinese companies were able to make tiny little steel balls, reliably, and round enough, for ball point pens.

Because Chinese steel is junk.

No deflection.

Because no evidence.

Chinese steel is beautiful.

Because it is perfect.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com