Also what happens to Europe? All these companies behind LLMs are from US, and Europe is nowhere to be found. This seems like it will dramatically accelerate the wealth different between the US and the EU.
Also what happens to Europe? All these companies behind LLMs are from US, and Europe is nowhere to be found. This seems like it will dramatically accelerate the wealth different between the US and the EU.
Europe in itself is (together) the single biggest market/economy in the world by the way, and the US is actually falling behind into developing-country territory when you look at the population and their access to basic services. And just because right now it is convenient to rely on the US companies, and we're deep allies btw, doesn't mean europeans couldn't spin up the same tech if really needed.
And given the amount of time needed to actually build this against the current pace of AI progress, the angry mob should materialize itself much earlier. French Nobles didn’t see the Guillotine coming either, even like a day before the revolution
At a point when all labor is obsolete there will be literally no method of survival for anyone who doesn't own the "compute capital". The two options will be to let everyone starve because they weren't lucky enough to shareholders in the company that owns all the bots, or just make that enterprise socially-owned and pay the unemployed workers.
How about subsistence farming?
Truthfully I think we'd have a few large societal shifts before we ever got to the stage where genius level AI could be spun up and down like containers, but it helps to illustrate the point that a post-labor society is incompatible with the tenets of capitalism, which is something that a lot of people fail to comprehend when they worry about AI.
The fact that the net result is positive doesn't mean that everyone profits equally. Having lived in capitalistic societies should have made that clear already.
Yet here we are.
It’s a human-political issue, it is not a technology issue.
What’s the difference now?
OK, put your money where your mouth is and send me 10% of your pay check.
And while we are here obviously I do my best to pay as little taxes as possible, but due to where I live I do end up paying more than 30% of my salary in taxes.
Did you ever put beers into those fridges? Or just took them? Because that's what looting is.
I guess Socialism is always nicer when you see yourself on the receiving end. We are both in the top 1% of the world, so we'd be giving away pretty much all we have.
You have no idea how I live to make claims about my political inclinations.
Then again I never advocated socialism, and you're fighting a shadow.
The fact is that anyone who understands even at a basic level what the computer is actually doing and isn’t afraid to look at it at a low level can’t be replaced by an AI trained on stack overflow.
It may be that I will spend more of my time on code review of LLM generated code, or make my money in the new kinds of legacy code created by copy pasting ChatGPT snippets together instead of SEO optimized stack overflow scrapes.
For me the outcome is the same. The skills I need to be more effective than the machine are the exact same as they were decade, century or even millennium ago. I still don’t see these LLMs do any synthesis of knowledge, and they don’t seem to have a grasp of logic or grammar at the level I expect a bright middle school student to have.
Lol, I was thinking about this the other day. Eventually most devs will essentially just be praying to the Machine spirit to make the computer do what they want. A small few high clerics will bother to learn how computers actually work. The rest will simply be cargo culting to the maximum extent possible.
Same as it ever was.
If the technology pans out the way the techno-enthusiasts hope it will, upward social mobility will be nearly eliminated... unless there's some kind of successful Luddite revolution against the technology and the people that own it. But that's not going to happen: there are all kinds of social pressure against revolution, as well as strict gun control in most places. Anyone who tries to resist their obsolescence will soon find themselves either ridiculed and condemned or in jail.
Of course, downward social mobility will accelerate, and be celebrated by idiot technologists who just want to build tech, and don't really care to think about the consequences of the technologies they build on real people.
Those round to the same number: 0.
How is this not a huge problem? The vast majority of people are not exceptional. Cutting out that middle band of ability and resources is a surefire recipe for social unrest.
I don't know, the US has been pushing that envelope for 40+ years and people are still paying taxes...
And people can push the "meth consumption" envelope for years before they finally die from it, too.
Getting away with unsustainable practices for X amount of time doesn't prove they're sustainable and won't end in collapse. It just means collapse can take more than X amount of time.
To claim AI tools will strip out the wealth of the middle class and cause unrest can be disproved by the fact that it was beaten to it by the US corporations by over a generation.
The "middle class" was an invention of post war US to reward the soldiers who fought in Europe and the Pacific. Things are just reverting to a more long (as in multiple centuries) trend behavior of economies. Few haves, lots of have-nots and barely anything in between.
Ideally, defund the police and so on, so that every state worker also is keen on getting that wealth redistribution done.
I'm not underestimating civilians. If what you're suggesting was at all realistic, China would be a democracy and Trump would still be president.
Sure, tens of millions of unarmed people with a single mind could probably do anything (like a mass of zombies can), but you'll never actually get that. There are numerous mechanisms preventing such a mass from forming, and more to dismantle and negate it afterwards.
I'm not talking about right now.
> And trump is simply an idiot that only get enough votes somehow because both parties in the US are a joke to begin.
Trump literally had "a crowd of people at some point ... walk into the [government's] home and make [them] agree with handing over [power]." How did that go?
Those businesses would not be around for very long, so who cares?
As you might have noticed, the AI boom will decimate the code writing jobs as well, something that the EU is behind on. Europe missed the "tech" age, but notice how the EU is not any poorer than the USA. Sure, some countries are poorer than others, but not everywhere in the US is Silicon Valley. Why? Because despite the EU missing out on "tech", actually the EU is very technologically advanced. Tech doesn't mean only low-touch high-scale computer-based businesses. There are chemists, biologists, anthropologists out there who don't know how to write a single line of JS and are paid like 1/5th of a junior JS developer, but the work they do is very valuable to society. Guess they don't need to learn JS anymore.
Also, notice how despite the thousands of layoffs, the US job data keeps coming out very positive - there's no unemployment problem. This is because of the markets, but AI will have similar effects. The world no longer needs that many CSS experts and React gurus who pull in $200K; the world apparently needs more hard-tech engineers and retail workers.
The AI thingy is devastating just for a subset of the "tech" workers and creative industries. It will enable other types of people and industries.
Startups who are trying to solve food production issues, for example, might finally outshine the next grocery delivery startup.
EU is significantly poorer than the US. Lots of different ways to measure it, but it’s a factor of roughly 1.5-2x in purchasing power parity.
Not saying the system isn't bad, but 10k for a doctor's visit is kind of a stretch...
Healthcare spending per capita in the USA is 12K, the second most expensive is Germany and it’s 7K.
The life expectancy in Germany is 82 and in the USA is 77, so it’s not the case that Americans are getting much better one, explaining the higher costs.
Oh and that appendicitis? It kills much more Americans than Germans(0.08 vs 0.06 per 100K).
I'm just saying that I see these weird takes about Americans paying like 10k for a single visit when that's just not the reality for most people. Only 8.6% of Americans were uninsured in 2020. Most insurance plans have a cap that doesn't even allow you to pay more than like 2-10k in an entire year.
Is it more expensive? Duh. It's just that there's more nuance to the issue. If I wasn't American (or I was an American that didn't understand how insurance actually works) I might have read that and believed that the poor Americans are all living in hell.
So yeah...we can talk about the issue because it's a big deal. In fact, I think it's the #1 biggest problem with American society right now and it's maddening that I never see anyone focusing on it. However, I don't like to see this kind of hyperbole from OP because people turn their brains off and stop looking at the facts.
That 10k doctor is a myth and certainly not something the 100k developer will have to pay. That's covered by his company. Healthcare is an issue in US when you're at the bottom of the food chain.
I'm just waiting for an "Ask HN: What are some job alternatives for people who know programming and can't get a job anymore since ChatGPT replaced us?"
And so on. Maybe the answer is in fact "yes", or even "yes, and it would have done these things even better than humans did". But so far it seems to be amazingly good at doing things that we showed it how to do.
If we stop creating actually new things, will it do that for us also?
Why would it care to do so? What interest does it have in creating new things on its own?
If the amount of people that will have social mobility opportunities will be equivalent to the amount of people who could have invented the MPG format or something comparable, then my point is made.
This is my insurance against LLMs, only works if the market demands new things...
The question isn't really about "genuinely new things". The number of permutations of existing things is such that at any given job you're likely to do old things in a new way.
E.g. you'd think that all streaming services are the same. Superficially, yes. Internally, Netflix, Disney+ and Apple Tv+ are likely to be different as night and day.
Could you?
But let's say that an MPG format specification is available. Even other code examples of interacting with an MPG file. But no examples, no library, no documentation on specifically how to extract a subset of one file into another file.
I would think a competent programmer could figure that out. Perhaps an AI tool could also; I have not yet seen an example of it doing so, but perhaps it could.
Of the handful of questions I asked, this might be the least interesting one. More generally, can AI tools advance the state of the art?
Would you?
This is exactly the opposite of what you would expect given the increased efficiencies that come from adopting computer systems and automation.
I see AI as a continuation of this trend and I don’t expect it to put people out of work, bureaucracy will always find new ways to justify itself.
Like, I could technically have a newbie running commands on a production router for a script that I wrote out...but even if I let them do that there's no way I wouldn't at least supervise. I don't think most companies are even remotely comfortable with the idea of having an AI system running code on their systems no matter how smart it is.
And at the very end, it will reduce to capital only, with no need for labor at all. Most people will be unemployed, and whatever capital they've amassed is unlikely to be enough to sustain themselves and their families for the long term. They (you) will end up as little more as impotent ants to AI-fueled Elon Musks, neglected until the infestation needs to be cleared to make way for some project.
I don't think it's that unrealistic. The trick will be, not going too fast, managing a few separate transitions, and making sure capital maintains control of the institutions with the monopoly on the use of force. The masses don't tend to act to project their interests until it's too late.
The masses are already showing signs of restlessness, and the only real problem right now is wealth inequality. Actual unemployment rates remain low. Forward in time a little, let's say 20% unemployment due to AI. The only way anybody is going to maintain their monopoly on use of force is if they hire every one of those 20% to be police. Right now the ratio of police to citizens is really low, and the ratio of weapons to civilians really high. I don't think the masses will wait all that long.
> The masses are already showing signs of restlessness
IMHO, "restlessness" doesn't mean anything. It would be expected in a AI-driven usurpation of labor. People have already been restless for decades due to de-industrialization, and that mainly got us Trump and an opioids, but the factories are still gone.
The key to fucking over the masses is making sure the "restlessness" doesn't get too strong, and doesn't have a clear (and correct!) villain identified, and maintaining a sense of inevitability.
> I don't think the masses will wait all that long.
IMHO, they probably will. Any individual or small group who takes action will be pilloried as wackos and thrown in jail. A larger movement will be (rightly) characterized as an insurrection and dealt with harshly.
People are complacent, and often don't realize they're really losing something until it's already slipped from their fingers.
I also think the Western world lacks the ideological tools to stop technologies like this. They'd basically have to start looking at technology like Amish do: rejecting technology that would undermine their social structure, rather than expecting the social structure to adapt to the technology.
We may not be that far away from when energy-intensive, latency-insensitive computing tasks are best located in space, to take advantage of cheap continuous solar power. The power capabilities of the next gen Starlink satellites are impressively cheap.
It does make sense, but you're not thinking about it clearly because you're too tied up in existing social structures. The end state "AI-fueled Elon Musks" (note that's a type, not a particular man) don't need common-man customers or their money, because they don't need to pay labor to operate their capital. They can directly operate their capital themselves, so they'll just do whatever the heck they want and nearly everyone who's now an employee becomes an ant.
At that point the main economy would mainly consist of billionaire ego projects and some trade between large corporations to support them. Common people would scrape by on billionaire largess and by squatting on resources not currently needed by billionaire ego projects and using it for small-scale subsistence production.
People who are in tech just to "climb social ladder" i.e. only for the pay check are going to be pushed out by LLMs and people who are actually passionate about tech will remain. This will cause less and less shitty code to be written (of course for next few years even more bloated shit code will be written with ChatGPT and Copilot by noobs who have no idea what they are doing)
So far technology has enabled use to increase economic output which means rising standards of living. Even if 99% of people subsist from selling their labor, the tools they use are a force multiplier that (in theory) drives wages up.
When you can spin up a bunch of Von Neumann level intelligence LLM-powered agents and have them run your company for you, there is no more labor to sell. You can either pay the former laborers to exist, or just let them starve.
So our two options are social ownership of all AI capital, or letting everyone without AI capital die, and let a handful of people live in the resulting AI-powered society.