More Americans are using ‘buy now, pay later’ services to pay for groceries
marketwatch.com
marketwatch.com
How many Americans were using buy-now pay-later a year ago? 10,000? 50,000? (out of 200 million). A 40% increase in market share from what? A market share of 0.0001%? Did the BNPL amount stay the same, and the market shrink (and what is the market -- on-line purchases or total grocery sales?) And there are 10% more orders, but 19% less revenue. So perhaps fewer people are paying more because of inflation, or more, how can we tell?
Perhaps written by Chat-GPT with the proviso that no actual information be provided.
> everyday BNPL orders, including groceries, accounted for barely 1% of all [BNPL] purchases in 2021.
Presumably the share for groceries alone didn't increase meaningfully in 2022, or that would have been noted for effect, so we're looking at less than 1.4% of all BNPL payments for groceries. Of course, there was also the secular increase in online grocery orders:
> This trend may be partly due to the fact that Americans are simply spending more money on groceries online. Online grocery spending grew by nearly 27% year over year to $8.4 billion in February.
> Presumably the share for groceries alone didn't increase meaningfully in 2022, or that would have been noted for effect, so we're looking at less than 1.4% of all BNPL payments for groceries.
It could just mean that BNPL as a product was not much used a couple of years ago, no? It could just mean that these folks would merely then put their groceries on a revolving credit card (which in many ways is worse). It doesn't necessarily mean folks are shifting to riskier forms of debt?
That said, you're right that this could also just be a product of new offerings, as BNPL in point-of-sale systems is newer than BNPL online.
1. Lower friction because more stores offer free/cheap delivery with decent CX (maybe also wider SNAP acceptance?)
2. Higher opportunity cost for low-income shoppers because of labor market gains (maybe also higher gas prices?)
3. Lingering wariness of high-touch public spaces (not sure about this one, but I still see masks here in Seattle)
The pandemic created a big pull-forward in this demand, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the trend continue.
My general observation is that not as much changed because of the pandemic as people thought would happen. But grocery delivery is something that does seem to have had gains. (Not sure about food delivery outside of the sort of deliveries that have long existed. And meal kits never really took off even during the pandemic.)
Percent of purchases seems like the wrong statistic. It is likely the case that most purchases are very small, people buying a single pack of cigs at a gas station and things like that. Furthermore, people with a lot of money likely make more purchases than people with little money. The percentage of the population making such everyday BNPL purchases is the interesting statistic, and I suspect it is higher than the % of all purchases.
[1]: https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/cfpb_consumer-...
Just think about BNPL for 3 seconds. How do they make money? By selling people shit they can't afford, waiting for them to miss payments, and charging hefty interest and fees – sometimes totaling up to as much as the product itself.
You can argue "it is legal" "they signed the contract" "they should have known better” all you like, but just like payday loans it is a social ill that we need to deal with.
Payday loan companies as they operate now belong in the class of companies that should simply be destroyed. Put betting shops in there as well.
BNPL often ignores credit check or specifically targets groups that credit cards would deem too risky.
For me this doubles the problem with the BNPL space: not only are the predatory, but I have serious concerns about their own risk management.
I knew of a start up that was experimenting with running their own BNPL service with zero credit checks. The users that were being targeted had a 30+% default rate (because other users had credit cards) but the upper bound of interest that could be charged was around 25%... the company seriously didn't understand why they weren't able to make profit on this product. But hey, revenue did grow which is all VCs cared about so it worked for them.
Here's a simple test – if everyone paid their balances on time and in full, credit card companies would still survive. BNPL would not.
That goes against my understanding. Do you have a source for that?
I'm pretty sure credit cards make their money off of interest. It's not from the interchange fees from people who pay their balance each month, as those often go straight back to consumers through rewards programs, and just administration costs generally. The card I use most has no annual fee but 2% cash back on everything.
American Express in particular makes more of their money from transaction fees and membership fees than interest. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/012715/how-ame...
In the US they're around 2%. In Europe they're more like 0.3%, which is why cashback/rewards aren't a thing.
My point is that interchange fees aren't where credit cards make money, it's on the interest of people who don't pay in full.
There is a spread between rewards provided and actual fees (fees are closer to 2.5-4%, rewards usually top out around ~2%)
According to the BNPL industry, fees and interest make up a small portion of their overall revenues. Whether that's wholly accurate is another story.
In sum, they would indeed exist. Its more a question of how large and profitable they would be.
Check out Klarna's financial reporting to get a sense of this: https://www.klarna.com/international/press/klarna-reports-fo...
It may also be irrelevant; I'm more interested in their forward-looking forecasts than their current revenue sources.
How did you miss to learn about those at your University, Man?
Obviously I'm missing here because there is no way the BNPL industry would exist without profit, but I just don't get it.
And, not surprisingly, comedians used to make exactly that joke! When fast food chains like McDonald's started accepting credit cards, they would joke that if you pay with one, it's like you're saying you can't afford the meal all at once.
I have absolutely no idea if that is true or how I’d even ascertain the veracity, so don’t quote me.
The major difference between some BNPL apps and credit cards is that the apps don't require a credit check. So, y'know, there's a certain segment of the market they are targeting.
I think the ethics are fairly mixed -- access to capital is important and capital is expensive to some people for a really good reason. Of course there are fairness issues and predatory lenders, but there's a balance between the two concerns.
But the risk modeling for CCs and BNPL are quite different. I expect there to be a BNPL blow-up at some point.
But why would they extend a one-off unsecured line of credit without a check of creditworthiness? It’s not like they can repo the groceries if you don’t pay.
The way this makes money is that they charge the merchant, and the hook for the merchant is that they are opening up their target demographics to include people that cannot otherwise afford the product. In that sense, I think BNPL competes with Layaway rather than with creditcards. More broadly, it's kind of a known factor that the middle class is shrinking and BNPL helps keep consumerism accessible to people that would otherwise be downgrading their lifestyle.
The risk is that if you do not manage your finances very well you can get tricked into thinking you can afford things that you cannot and end up underwater to payments. It's like R-A-C but they won't send the sheriff to repossess your sofa.
BNPL companies target people who are unlikely to afford the purchase and they will be in far worse position afterwards. Since these are high risk loans, so they come with even higher interest rates and fees too.
* advertised as "no interest unlike credit cards" ("free") but if you are struggling, you will get hit with fees
* less strict credit checks, so more struggling people can get it
* attracts struggling people because if your credit is good and you are paying off, you will get much better deal with CCs in terms of cash back, miles, etc - nothing like that here
* merchants actively promoting bnpl to entice struggling people to buy things they can't afford (merchants typically don't promote one-click-pay with specific credit cards)
all these add up to heavily incentivizing broke people to become even more broke, more so than credit cards
BNPL lenders don't tend to check a buyer's credit, and those that do don't pull a full report, so it's more accessible than a credit card. But successful payments to a BNPL also don't get reported up to credit agencies, and missed payments can be (at least a third and up to three-quarters of those who missed a payment took a subsequent credit score hit), so paying down a BNPL plan exposes the buyer's credit score to risks with no potential benefit. Since the lack of credit check makes BNPLs attractive to demographics with poor credit scores - young, poor, and underbanked - even responsible usage of BNPLs do nothing to improve those scores.[1][2]
Like with many low- or no-friction payment tools, BNPLs can facilitate overspending by people who already have poor credit, and the consequences of doing so can be dire to the overspender with few or no consequences to the BNPL lender. Planning a BNPL purchase isn't a problem, but point-of-sale BNPL options and BNPL instruments in debit-card form factors make debt an impulse buy in ways that credit cards can't do in some jurisdictions because they face regulations that BNPL lenders don't (yet[3]). People under the most pressure are buying necessities with BNPL and paying the BNPL debt down with credit card debt, a sort of worst-of-all-worlds scenario.[2]
BNPL usage has only increased with inflation and spread to necessities, which in the long run benefits only BNPL lenders. BNPL users are juggling a mean BNPL balance of $665.[2]
Another thing that raises hackles about BNPL lenders is how often they promote their services as a social good by pointing out how they avoid the predatory practices of credit cards. As for-profit institutions this can ring as dissonant to people who've experienced stress from debt, because it can suggest that providing low-friction debt to people who can't afford higher-friction debt is a moral imperative. The cringe of it expands when such platitudes are in the company's report to shareholders about its financial successes.[4]
And on top of everything, the business model for BNPLs existed only with low/near-zero interest rates. Their value as businesses is evaporating as they face actually having to pay for the money that the lenders themselves are borrowing to fund BNPL transactions.[5]
1: https://www.creditkarma.com/about/commentary/buy-now-pay-lat...
2: https://www.creditkarma.com/about/commentary/consumers-rely-...
3: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-consumer-watchdo...
4: https://www.klarna.com/assets/sites/15/2022/02/27195201/Klar...
5: https://www.reuters.com/technology/buy-now-pay-later-busines...
The entire thing is a tongue-in-cheek take on "we won't change the price of our pizza for a year" but they make it sound like a mortgage. You can even go online and get pre-approval for your pizza.[1]
To me, this smells of some marketing people thinking they're really really clever. It's fairly well-executed. But just completely tone deaf. Some people are losing their homes. They're trying to feed their children[2]. This is not the time to goof about the absolute fucking dystopic idea of food mortgages.
[1] https://www.pizzapizza.ca/fixed-rate-pizza/
[2] My wife volunteers at our kids public school's snack program (Canadian schools generally don't provide lunches). The school has a very wide range of income levels, so you get everything from kids who ignore the snacks (fruit, veggies, sometimes cereal bars), to kids who are sent to school with an empty container to bring food home. Luckily there are some really good social systems in place to try to remove this responsibility from a child, but it's soul crushing to see. This footnote is tangential but I'm having a very raw moment of anger, sadness, and hope.
It looks more like a joke about inflation than mortgages.
Perhaps I'm feeling sensitive to this and it is a funny joke. Naturally the audience can decide for themselves. =)
You also need to be the type of person that keeps on top of your finances. The main trap for inexperienced/impulsive people is getting locked into paying for more than they can afford. Without BNPL they might look at their balance and decide not to buy the item. BNPL introduces a different type of calculation where you now "it's only $5/mo", and need the experience to consider "how many more $5/mo payments do I have".
The other problem is people with a volatile monthly income. They might be fine paying $50/month for a few months but due to their industry or changes in their financial situation they're now stuck with a commitment they can't afford and otherwise wouldn't have had without BNPL.
Will missing payments of it hurt your credit history? If so, why is such one-sided credit reporting legal?
Since 2008, the Fed has been paying interest on deposits using newly issued currency. That free money will keep entering the economy and cause inflation. The higher they raise the rates, the more free money will enter the economy.
> “While a pay-in-four plan doesn’t usually charge interest, longer-term BNPL plans may charge an annual percentage rate up to 30%,” an article in Nerdwallet noted in 2022. “Fees, like for late or rescheduled payments, range from $1 to $10 and are sometimes capped at 25% of the purchase value, depending on the company.”
So I guess if you pay in a four-month-installment on time, it could make sense, but that seems like a super risky gamble.
I was surprised to learn that essentially all lenders offer a fixed 8% interest rate... When annual inflation is at least 10% in my country and reserve bank interest rates are on the rise. If it was a variable interest rate, that would present some risk. But it's not even the case. It's literally a fixed 8% annual rate over 5 years (by which point the loan will have been fully paid). So assuming that I can keep my income in line with inflation, it ends up becoming easier to repay my loan as inflation progresses.
It's not quite the same situation for people with real estate mortgages as their rate is variable (or fixed only for a couple of years; so not really fixed when you consider that the loan is 20 to 30 years...) and their repayments increase along with the reserve bank interest rates. My repayments are constant and my debt is being inflated away as we speak.
I bought a basic/small, but good quality car as I think it will hold its value well due to its focus on utility and fuel (cost) efficiency.
Ally Bank currently offers 4% apy interest on a Money Market Savings, maybe you can find similar from a better bank. 4% apy over the term isn't much, but it's certainly fiscally better than paying cash today.
This isn't some mastermind long term plan to gain a few cents over years.
It just means more and more people can't afford basic necessities, it's the case pretty much everywhere in the west, food banks are busier than ever this alone is a clear signal.
This idea is an example of Neo-Fisherism.[1] It's not really a mainstream view, but Erdogan's central bank has been trying it out (cutting rates to ease inflation).[2] It hasn't exactly worked as he expected.[3]
[1]: https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/j...
[2]: https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/01/27/...
> People who use BNPL for purchases tend to be more financially distressed than nonusers, according to a March report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. They’re also more likely to be an active user of other credit products such as payday loans and credit cards, the report added.
HN comment: "This is a smart way to hedge interest rates vs. inflation risk in their portfolios!"
I love this place sometimes :-D
I am willing to pitch in to help
that said, why would I not be surprised to find out many of these people have a newer and more expensive phone than me? a nicer car?
sorry for the cynicism but I've watched too many people in the drive-up food bank line in $80k pickups...we have a disconnect here
I don’t think it’s good, but that’s the truth.
> acting like your credit card is a debit card.
Damn, sounds like a good deal.
Those are people who sprinted off the cliff.
Not paying the credit card bill has consequences, but having the option to choose whether to pay timely for expenses you already incurred offers flexibility.
If you had paid cash for your groceries the day before you got laid off, the cash is gone; if you paid on a credit card, you have an unsecured debt, but you can use your cash for other things, if need be.
Recent profile on one program and the kind of gatekeeping people face: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJDk-czsivk
It's a global phenomenon unfortunately.
Who holds all the debt?
BNPL makes their money by charging a network fee. AFAIK AfterPay charges about 7% and this is meant to cover the debt charges from the banks and administration fees.
> 75 percent of truck owners use their truck for towing one time a year or less (meaning, never).
> Nearly 70 percent of truck owners go off-road one time a year or less.
> And a full 35 percent of truck owners use their truck for hauling—putting something in the bed, its ostensible raison d’être—once a year or less.
The F-150 is America's most popular passenger vehicle, and I'm pretty sure construction worker isn't America's most popular job :)
[1] https://www.thedrive.com/news/26907/you-dont-need-a-full-siz...
I do recognize that a lot of folks buy it because the false sense of safety or for "rolling coal and sticking it to hippies".
Do lawn or woodworking projects? Probably gonna haul materials in an F-150.
When I purchased my last vehicle, I had several considerations in mind, but the reason I didn't purchase a truck was that the gas mileage on those vehicles is typically not great AND it would cost me less month-to-month to simply rent a truck from U-Haul or Home Depot on the days that I needed it.
I pay almost $500 a month for the right to drive a 2019 SUV that cost $19K when adding up monthly payment and insurance. There are far too many people on the streets paying over $1K a month simply for the right to be mobile in a recent-model truck.
I don’t own a truck. My boat wouldn’t fit on a trailer towed by a 150 anyway. I just think that the core market for that model is tradesmen or apprentices. Secondary market is the fools that think it’s cool to have a 10mpg truck for just having a trucks sake.
If you own a truck and have legit towing, hauling, or other “truck” business then it makes sense to own one rather than rent one. Like you said though, if it’s just one or twice a year - go rent one.
For a better anecdote, my father is a contractor and a few years back started actively avoiding his F-450 for day to day work because it's such an expensive pain to operate. Instead he got a smart car and drives that to the site most days, complete with table saw and other tools. Again, not saying that every every tradesperson can work like this, but just think of how much easier parking would be if half the people on site weren't driving F-series trucks.
Requiring or expecting that people burn through all their material resources before getting help isn't how you get people out of poverty. Such requirements are a part of America's "poverty trap" and also cause misery in the disability system.
I spent a solid year looking for a good cargo van to turn into something other than a van-life van (more a mobile hacking station… but that’s besides the point).
The reality is, one’s transportation here in America is one’s livelihood in many situations.
It's probably easier to buy a good small pickup than a big van right now, especially if trading a bigger pickup + accepting cash which would be great for someone in financial trouble.
there's an opportunity cost for that expense. it reminds of this episode of Schitt's Creek - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hg1Uk60rBsc.
If you want to help help, if you don't don't. What you're doing here is the worst of both basically.
They seem to only marginally help those who already have money, but frequently negatively impact those who either don't have money or just make very bad financial decisions.