What happens when no junior devs are hired for 5 years? Who works their way up to replace the seniors who are leaving?
What I didn’t say but should be a given is that these AI tools won’t be able to completely eliminate the need for any human touch, it will just reduce the need to the point where there won’t be the current huge demand for developers, and thus, the only people that travel down that path will be the ones that are truly passionate about development.
The question then is how exactly does one become better than AI at making software if no one is going to pay you to make software until you are better than AI?
The same issue with art - we need a sea of mediocre artists and a market for their work for great artists to emerge. AI takes over mediocre art market - all commercially driven art disappears.
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general...
Date of Artificial General Intelligence https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-...
The latter includes this criterion: "Able to get top-1 strict accuracy of at least 90.0% on interview-level problems found in the APPS benchmark introduced by Dan Hendrycks, Steven Basart et al."
The APPS benchmark: https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.09938
Note that the predicted date of "stronger" AGI has moved quite a lot since GPT-4 is revealed, from late 2030s to 2033 at this moment.
> By the late 2020s, it's entirely possible that a "weaker" AGI will emerge.
For example, I've been predicting the financial demise of Facebook for over a decade now (amongst other things for being too greedy), but Zuck's still doing well enough. Even if Meta is declining now, it still might have been rational for him to be so greedy over the past decade.