Currently the nationwide days-on-market is still way below long-term historical norms and even below recent history. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARUS
I wonder if there's been a material shift in who is making offers that won't revert to 90s behavior. Specifically, investment firms specializing in single family housing, who might have more incentives to make a lot of lowball offers and not worry too much whether they win or lose a specific bid.
Obviously you have imitators like Zillow trying to edge in as well, and step back after taking heavy losses, so its hard to say for sure where the new equilibrim will end up at.
I dont think I have seen good data that includes or calls out "investors" rather than "investment firms" I suspect that a lot of property ends up in the hands of individuals be it a vacation home, rental, air BB or flip.
They have a much better idea of what's available and what's a good match for what they want.
[edit] No supply + high demand = prices go up. Higher interest rates only help at the margins because it doesn't actually change the demand factor which is that the humans in America need a place to live, and the more they make, the more they can afford to pay. And it certainly doesn't change the supply factor!
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_housing_shortage
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5...
https://www.zillow.com/research/most-popular-city-2022-31925...
This is about 1 mile from where I live in Overland Park, KS. PV is all single family homes with near zero apartments. Of course the city is trying to re-zone to put in higher density housing, and the population is vehemently opposed to it; I don't blame them. People move there for that reason. Higher density leads to more crime and other frustrations. People learned their lesson from the pandemic.
Poverty and general desperation leads to higher crime rates as people resort illegal means to get by. And that's what happens when there is not enough housing for people.
In the United States, we have a whole bunch of terrible housing policies, so maybe people are conflating density for poverty. But you can find many examples across Europe and Asia where there is little correlation between density and crime.
- "I want affordable housing!"
- "Hm, ok, how about we build new houses in the places people want to live, increasing supply to meet demand"
- "NOT LIKE THAT"
It's just like the "no take only throw" dog meme.
If you don't want to live next to other people, buy the land around you. If you can't afford the land around you, move further away. There's no reason your tastes should dictate what I can do with my property. I'm sorry, I thought this was America.
As soon as interest rates started rising, conditions went from what you describe, to, in a lot of cases, houses sitting weeks or months on the market. They go through, sometimes, multiple prices drops before going under contract.
I'm speaking specifically of homes that are in the range of those I'm considering purchasing, so maybe it doesn't apply to the overall market. For me, though, it is now much more of a buyer's market than it was a year ago.
Getting into spring, I could see more people start looking again, with some pent-up demand not met from last year.
Inventory is gone. Not low. Gone. In the 45 mile radius we are looking in for an area with a pop of ~100,000, at houses under $350k (90% of listings)...there are weeks with ZERO listings.
This has lead to an insane situation where offers end up way over asking but there are so few comps that virtually all FHA is back out, not because of issues with the offer but because the appraisal issue: no house actually apprises near the price it goes for.
If you take a look at Zillow, most houses that sold last in 2019 after a renovation, with zero changes since, are listing at $330k. This has crunched the rental market as one would expect. Rental prices, in absolutely a low cost of living area have multiplied overnight from ~$700 to $1500+. I know most in this area are absolutely not paid like us so I'm pretty sure the area is about to hit a wall. One might expect a market to limit itself as homes that cost too much wont sell..but the other side of it is that I think we are getting to a flexible point of 'well everyone needs a home', I mean...is this a housing bubble coming? When that bubble pops, what happens to all the people with $350K loans on houses that are back down $200K?
I've never believed in doing something just because everyone else thinks its the default thing to do. Putting 1.5M to 2M into a small average house didn't make sense to me when that is enough money to retire in many different beautiful places in the world.
So I left. Switched jobs and started working remotely. I now live in a MCOL area and things are about 30% cheaper than the Bay Area. Better schools. Nicer environment. More diversity (including economic diversity). More access to activities (like gymnastics) for my kids at a reasonable price. More free time.
I make a little less money in cash. And a lot less money in equity. But all in all its a better life.
I hope more people open their eyes and realize these tech hotspots are actually hell.
Wouldn’t that make the other currently nice places hell again :^)
Anecdotally, I follow many smaller markets in the Midwest and the South (plus Chicago). I wouldn't call it a buyer's market anywhere. But I'm not seeing anything like this.
I also have a few friends shopping on the East coast - and they're in a similar situation. It's not a buyer's market. But also not crazy.
My understanding was that The Bay, SoCal, and Seattle had massively slowed down. So I'm just wondering where this could be - or if things have recently turned around a lot.
Maybe my info is just bad...
So at least here in Cupertino, things are still nuts.
The older neighbors are generally people who have owned for 30+ years and bought when things were still reasonable. The houses in our neighborhood are all about 60 years old, and we even still have some original owners!
But the point is for the most part people here are not so wealthy they can stop working, they just have high paying local jobs to pay for their really expensive house and don't have a lot left over after housing expenses.
https://www.yahoo.com/video/everything-bigger-texas-includin...
But basically the higher property taxes and additional taxes and fees that Texan's pay on consumption, like energy taxes, end up more than making up for the lack of income tax, unless you're a top 1% earner (which is somewhere around $700k/yr). Energy tax is a big one because Texan's use a lot more energy since they have hotter summers and colder winters.
So if you're a top 1% or more, you save at least 4X in taxes. I'm sure you come out on top in TX financially for the vast majority of people reading this site, $100k+ earners. Everyone I know that moved to Austin from CA did so to avoid paying taxes on cashing out stock options.
And a lot of those people are now moving back after that one time tax savings. Heck even Elon is moving back.
> So if you're a top 1% or more, you save at least 4X in taxes
Only income taxes, but property and energy taxes are still higher.
Even at the lower rate, the property taxes on the Cupertino house alone dwarf any tax difference they would pay for a comparable lifestyle in Austin [1].
To be blunt, but it looks like you deliberately chose a misleading comparison to push the narrative you already settled on. That's below the standard I've come to expect of your comments.
[1] Here's a $3.2m Cupertino home, which shows $40k/year in property taxes. A comparable home in Austin for the $700k the parent mentioned would have ~$14k/year in property taxes. https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/21467-Krzi...
So, paying the $2.5 million ... to pay $26k/year more just in property taxes.
The cost of shelter for an Apple employee in Cupertino is what, 3.5x the cost of shelter for an Apple employee in Austin? Nuts.
Only because most people who can afford to buy in Cupertino aren't paying for it with earned income, right? Google tells me a $2.5M mortgage has minimum payments of $230k a year, anyone who makes enough to afford that is probably paying at least $50k/year in CA state income tax, on top of ~$25k in property taxes. Austin has high property taxes but I don't see them coming anywhere close to that, and the sales tax is lower.
But do you have 1,700sqft shacks going for $3.2M in Texas ?
Stress makes people have a harder time filtering and looking at the long term.
Default is different, it's an inability to pay debts. They have no problem printing more dollars and paying debts.
Well, Realtors are incentivized to portray the market hotter than it actually is.
I could see them telling buyers that the market is hotter than it is. But even that might backfire, if they make qualified buyers think that they can't afford to buy in the current market.
Move rates are roughly 9-10% a year. I bet we see that a lot lower for this quarter and next few quarters.
That’s why short sales, foreclosures, ‘mailing the keys in’, etc. were a thing.
With housing, it’s NEVER a thing that someone just sells at a loss just because.
They sell at a loss because they don’t have a choice, and the bigger the loss, usually because the less choice they have.
If labor market is still doing well, then there is little pressure. Usually that happens a bit later anyway - construction workers out of work because housing isn’t being built, or folks employed by tech workers get laid off because tech isn’t so sure about those bonuses, etc.
We’ll see though - maybe the fed will pull off a soft landing this time.
> 2019 it has to crash sometime
> 2022 ok now is the time for home prices to call
> 2027 it must crash!
The reality is that home prices are buoyed by a number of systemic factors that cause supply to be constrained. Prices will go down in total value due to interest rate rises. Homes will not be more affordable.
As somebody with the cash, I'd settle for even seeing this much. So far it's been high interest rates with the same high prices (in much if the Northeast).
Supply: low and expensive new builds, heavy rate lockin.
Demand: muted due to higher rates, but sometimes people gotta move. So a slight haircut, but in many areas most likely less haircut than supply constraint.
We are seeing some sifting in the market but I personally believe sales volume is driven by supply lockin, meaning its still a seller's market.
But the normal buyers will get more and more priced out, and the affluent area will end up with less and less volume as sellers start waiting it out because the volume of available buyers gets thinner and selling gets riskier.
In 08, the poor labor market meant that many people had to sell. That caused prices to drop.
We aren't at that point yet this time, and I don't think anyone knows whether or not we are headed for a seriously rocky job market.
Sellers now with a 2.75% fixed-30 mortgage could trade down a significant amount in housing cost and end up with worse cashflow if they take on a new mortgage at 5+%.
The assumption is, since almost no one can afford a house, prices MUST fall. Here's the thing no one gets: the "almost" part is very important. If, in a city of 100,000 people, only the richest 100 can afford (less than 1% of the population) a house but there's only 10 houses on the market, then prices can still continue to skyrocket.
Overall demand does not need to be super high for prices to go up. It's Demand relative to supply that matters. And in markets where supply is really really tiny then demand doesn't need to be very high in order to outstrip supply.
Edit: At least this has been my experience. Have people found otherwise themselves?
We delayed buying a house to have a bit more in savings? House prices skyrocket, our friends who leveraged the crap out of themselves look genius.
We wait to buy a car to have a bit more in savings / wait for the used market to come down? The used market goes up, our friends who bought new cars look like geniuses.
There's part of me that keeps waiting for a correction, esp. in the housing market, both so that houses come back into our budget range, but also maybe because there's part of me that feels vindictive about the fact that everyone who, to my sensibilities, seems to be acting recklessly are making out better than we are.
Some of that is reasonable, I suspect: we're very financially conservative relative to our peer group, which means we're going to miss out on some opportunities, and I don't want to be "proven right" in saving for a rainy day by everyone else having economic hardship, but I do feel rather confused about how we're "supposed" to behave in this market.
We're also remarkably well off, as is our peer group, which will obviously skew the data radically, but it also scares the crap out of me: if these are the thoughts we're having with a household income just barely under $200k this young, what is everyone else thinking?
Financial decisions are not so black and white. IMO only basic rules apply: live below your means, save more than you spend, avoid debt, etc. Any advice beyond that is a crapshoot.
It's okay to save every penny but you can't keep it in cash. You've got to buy some real asset: either real estate, gold, equities or bitcoin.
Previous owner died, someone bought it and cleaned it up to flip it. It actually looks very nice.
No one is buying it though.
In Austin prices are def. down ~ 8%, after this hike and sustained layoffs I am betting it will shed another 8 by the end of summer...
In our area, age on the market is increasing and I think the average for some areas is over 60 days, which is an indicator for a buyers' market.
- how many buyers are investors from private equity or foreign investors vs residents (who intend to live in the property)?
- What is the true population including undocumented people? this will be off by 30-50% in some areas
- What is the true vacancy rate? In my area there are many houses sitting vacant. I’m assuming they are investments or tax dodges
It baffles me at how critical the housing market is and that no one takes responsibility to understand what is affecting prices. We just accept prices as a force of nature.