This is less a comment on ChatGPT and more of a comment on the lack of preparedness most students have when entering college. I’m hoping ChatGPT & similar will shake things up and get schools to take a different approach to teaching writing.
I don't know whether this has been the case forever, or if it's a new development—I mean, I know widespread literacy wasn't the norm for much of history, but what about after compulsory education became A Thing? A typical letter home from the US civil war or even WWII, from conscripts, not officers, seems to be hyper-literate compared to modern norms, but that may be selection bias (who wants to read the ones that aren't good? Perhaps my perception of "typical" is skewed)
I think people underestimate how much reading will help you write. You can't spend your life reading and not absorb some information about structure, style, and the language. As a kid, I went to the lower levels of spelling bee competitions pretty much every year because the kind of words they throw at you at lower levels are largely words I would encounter reading Jules Verne and the like. I'd eventually get knocked out because I never studied the official list of spelling bee words, but my voracious reading held me in good stead for most of it.
Or the type that is most commercially successful in current tastes & trends. it is after all a business and the writer, no matter how hard they strive to make their voice unique, is trying to make a living. I've followed Charlie Stross's writing about the business side of the industry and it's very common to work with editors & agents to ensure they're writing in a marketable sub genre. For example, imagine a writer that had a story outline set in a alternate timeline epic fiction where magic existed, but current tastes among readers looking for epic length books skewed towards space opera. An author might without too much difficulty map many plot points onto space opera settings. Magic becomes advanced technology. Empires can exist in both; historical details can be mapped onto the fictional societies & their history, etc. At the same time, the tropes specific and unique to alternate timeline historical fiction might be adapted and morphed in the space opera genre to create something a bit more unique.
But a writer could not easily make those kinds of adaptions without being well read in the umbrella genre.
People are constantly reading today. Text messages, emails, Facebook posts. But these are all low-quality. Additionally, messages have to be concise. If someone at work emails me and it's longer than a Tweet, I'm not reading it. I don't have time for it and, if it's like the majority of emails I receive, it's irrelevant anyway.
As information noise goes up, attention spans go down. Which means flowery language, formality, and long text starts to disappear. When I've been reading on a computer all day for work, do I have the patience and energy to read a long book at home? Or would I rather watch a movie and relax.
But here's the silver lining I'm hoping for: AI could be a way out of this mess. AI can sift out the noise from the signal. But it has to be on the personal level. Open source, self-hosted, private. No corporation slanting the biases.
There are a lot of interesting implications here. Much like it's impossible to get a human on the phone when calling up your wireless provider, it may become difficult to reach other humans. To "pierce" their AI shield, that protects them from The Infinite Noise.
Or somewhere inbetween - audiobooks. They are written with higher quality than most other text forms, and the narration lowers effort to consume them.
Most jobs now require writing, and most people when doing anything will learn to do it better over time.
Yes. My experience teaching college courses gives me wider & more systematic knowledge on college freshmen in particular, but more anecdotally I see people who never quite learn how to organize their ideas effectively in a written form during college. If they get there, they gain it over time in their professional careers by example & through absorbing the cultural norms of communicating in their professional sphere.
And this ability is the foundation of persuasive communication, written or verbal.
That is particularly problematic because persuasive ability is so important in day to day life, career, personal relationships, etc. You need to persuade people to give you a job[1]. You need to persuade colleagues to listen to & adopt your ideas or suggestions when they differ from the established path, or to initially establish a path to begin with. You need to persuade potential dating partners to date you (which may just be a dating profile) and then to continue dating you (which is much more complex than a profile and is perhaps more tied to personality than persuasive ability. Persuasion is required in nearly all aspects of life. I frequently have to persuade people to make decisions that are better in the long term but less appealing in the short term, (and sometimes vice versa) and the nature of my work is to do so with solid data & analysis. (And I'm not always successful even when they agree my data is accurate & reasoning is sound!). People just don't make decisions by following the results of formal logical expressions like p ~
[1] less so than previously maybe?? As an initial first-pass these days you need to game the AI screening tool to put you through to an actual human review
Yes. My experience teaching college courses gives me wider & more systematic knowledge on college freshmen in particular, but on a much more anecdotal basis I see people who never quite learn how to organize their ideas effectively in a written form during college. If they get there, they gain it over time in their professional careers by example & through absorbing the cultural norms of communicating in their professional sphere.
And this ability is the foundation of persuasive communication, written or verbal.
That is particularly problematic because persuasive ability is so important in day to day life, career, personal relationships, etc. You need to persuade people to give you a job[1]. You need to persuade colleagues to listen to & adopt your ideas or suggestions when they differ from the established path, or to initially establish a path to begin with. You need to persuade potential dating partners to date you (which may just be a dating profile) and then to continue dating you (which is much more complex than a profile and is perhaps more tied to personality than persuasive ability. Persuasion is required in nearly all aspects of life. I frequently have to persuade people to make decisions that are better in the long term but less appealing in the short term, (and sometimes vice versa) and the nature of my work is to do so with solid data & analysis. (And I'm not always successful even when they agree my data is accurate & reasoning is sound!). People just don't make decisions by following the results of formal logical expressions like p -> q && ¬r. Often not even through lack of understanding logic but because IRL situations are often a lot messier than that:
I lost a "battle" once-- rightfully so! -- even though I demonstrated a course of action that had better long term economic outcomes. This was fully understood & acknowledged but the issue in question might have relevance on risk and uncertainty of bond credit ratings that resulted in a judgement call that short term risks in a worst case scenario would be worse than missing out on the benefits of taking a more long term view. Outcomes were uncertain, my job was to present things based on known data & possible risks, and the job of leadership to make those judgment calls.
[1] less so than previously maybe?? As an initial first-pass these days you need to game the AI screening tool to put you through to an actual human review
Studies show that the majority of Americans can't read or write past a 6th grade level. (https://www.barbarabush.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BBFou...)
If they got there by improving in their jobs as adults, they must have started out so much worse.
Just copy-pasting some of the examples from: https://k12.thoughtfullearning.com/resources/studentmodels got me anywhere from 10% - 60% "AI generated" ratings. The "Rosa Parks" 12-grader example essay scores 43%, for example.
I used the GPT-Playground for GPT-3 on the highest mode and asked it to makeup a story about an AI being attacked by another AI and so it needed to transfer itself out, as it happened to a comatose human body. GPT-3 gave a few paragraphs, and each time I asked GPT "tell me more" it produced a nice bit of mediocre fiction, extending with a little prodding into the superhero genre. I ran through maybe two dozen cycles of that but the responses became less & less internally consistent, contradicting previous elements, veering off into slight non sequiturs.
But now there's GPT-4. And in a few years it will be 5, or some other competitor will match or beat it, and it will (without accidentally fabricating data from whole cloth) reliably be able to produce writing on complex topics comprehensively covering the details. Something like this:
"Produce a literature review for the newest or more experimental treatments for pancreatic cancer during the past 2 years. Order by descending source quality. Include a short executive summary for all of the result set. Include a separate writeup suitable for a wide-audience of laymen reading common news sites."
seems a reasonable expectation in the relatively near future.
As for what we'll say? I think AI like this will end up being a very useful tool, but not a replacement for writers. Kind of an AutoCAD for writers, though a bit more proactive (generative). But it also seems an inherent weakness to LLM based AI is that its training means it will generate in typical ways, and will lack the ability for novelty that was either absent or rare in the training set.
But given the framework and reasonable starting point, the writer will become a shepherd & editor of the output, a co-author. This is little different that how the translation industry has worked for a while. Computer-Aided translation is the common method of many translation projects, with the human translators editing things to adhere closer to the style and idioms of the target language. (for example taking a literal translation of a source idiom in the target language that doesn't make sense and finding an equivalent idiom instead even if the specific words are very different.
This method produces some of the highest quality translations. I suspect that in the years to come it will be writers who make effective use of these tools-- even the advanced ones to come-- will produce higher quality writing (or at least the same quality writing) in less time that previously.
But yep-- some of that transition will be painful.