Unchecked corporate pricing power is a factor in US inflation
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This is auction-style pricing. Good for lumber and some other commodities, but not great if you want to buy eggs, bread, medicine, or gas on the way to work.
>We always sell to the highest bidder. I have no idea how we'd even do it otherwise -- a lumber lottery? All of this reporting about corporate greed is truly dumb.
Well, the other way to sell it is to put a price on it and sell it to the first person willing to pay that price!
You mentioned that you have a lot of competition. That along with auction-style pricing will normally get very close the the WTP ("ideal") price of a product. This is not always possible. It is usually difficult to dial in the "right" price of a consumer product. They can just not buy your chips or cheese! It is no big issue for them and the psychological effect of raising prices for no reason will cause just that reaction. That is why shrinkflation has been a thing.
Imagine having to outbid someone at the grocery store for milk. Or having to outbid someone at the pharmacy for your child's insulin. You can see why certain products cannot be sold to people that way.
Another way of looking at this whole situation is that every company is greedy to some extent. Pricing is hard. And they took advantage of certain events and situations to try new pricing. Many lied about why (claiming supply issues, because saying "we just want more of your money" doesn't sit well with people), which is not cool. If the new pricing sticks then it is probably closer to the "real" price. If it is too high, people will not buy the products and the price may go back down. I say "may" because there is always the possibility that selling fewer items at a higher price might produce more end profit than selling more items at a lower price.
btw, auction-pricing is the wet-dream of every MBA that runs a company. It is the closest thing that people have to find out a person's WTP, for exactly the reason's you outlined in our comment. But you can't do that with loaves of bread, or bacon, or laundry detergent, or nearly anything else.
No. In fact the manufacturer might sell through the distributor that pays the least, if they have high enough sales/coverage (think Walmart) and the total profit is acceptable. Think about selling your product through a mom and pop store that pays you more per item and you clear $1 but they sell 10, or selling 100,000,000 million of your items but you are only clearing $0.05 each. It is much more complicated and larger grocer chains do not have to pay as much wholesale, because they have access to a lot of loyal customers. So they don't compete they way you think and they sure as hell don't have to "bid" on items if they are a large chain. If anything, sometimes it is the reverse, where manufacturers have to pay for self-space and placement. All the ones of a similar size likely sell the product for about the same (in the same demographic area), but may pay different wholesale prices. Or they may not. It is much more complicated. The main point is that it is not like your business. Yours is special and highly-sought after in business, but almost never available.
>We don't sell on auction boards like you're implying. Our sales floor takes calls from buyers, and they makes calls to buyers, and every day our traders close sales on the basis of who's willing to pay the most. It's not that complicated.
Auctions don't have to be complicated. Whenever anyone "bids" on something and the winner gets it, it is auction-style pricing. There are many kinds. The ebay style is one. The one at estate sales or Christie's is another (called open-cry), etc. But it is the holy-grail in business of determining price. The only thing better would be to somehow scan the brain of a person and know the maximum that would pay and charge that.
There's where you lose the thread. They sell to Walmart not because "total profit is acceptable." They do it because they believe it will make them the most money in the long run. Maybe potato chip manufacturers are different than lumber manufacturers, but I doubt it.
I mean that the exact same way you do. If the word "acceptable" is tripping you up, we can substitute "maximize" and it means the same to me.
>Maybe potato chip manufacturers are different than lumber manufacturers, but I doubt it.
I mean, the fact that people call every day to bid on your product and (presumably) the prices changes daily and they don't on theirs, objectively means that it isn't, right?
I agree. The exogenous shocks from Covid (and the shutdowns/working from home) and the money that the govt. lavished on people and businesses caused a lot changes in market dynamics. Some temporary, some seemingly permanent, and some still in flux. As an example, I own rental property on the side. In the town I live in, there hasn't been a decrease in housing and there hasn't been an increase in population. However rents doubled in the span of 3 years. As for why, it seems, they just did it because others where doing it. Taxes didn't go up. Insurance didn't go up. Repairs cost the same. It appears that you can just charge more and people will pay it and so that is what happened.
>There's been so much discussion of price gouging,
When I think of price gouging, I think of someone buying up all of the bottled water after a hurricane and then selling it for 10 times as much when there is no other option available to people. What these companies are doing is testing new price points. In fact, if they are publicly traded and didn't try to maximize shareholder profits they could be facing being ousted or even legal threats.
On a side note, HN has a funny relationship with "price gouging" because many love dynamic pricing (like Uber uses) which is literally price gouging, but if someone tries a new price point on bacon or a dozen eggs they flip the fuck out.
>I know for a fact the pricing was a product of radically increased demand. It seems very likely to me the same is true for potato chips.
I mean, you know your business. I believe you. But there really are companies out there testing new price points just because it is convenient and they won't face the typical backlash from customers because "inflation", or "supply chain issues", or whatever, but really they are just seeing if they can get more profits. This shouldn't be shocking to anyone but it rubs consumers the wrong way when it happens and when everyone does it, it contributes to CPI inflation which people feel at home.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2021/apr/16/...
I promise, spend time in old growth vs forest cleared in the last 150 years. They're completely different places.
If the US actually gave the slightest care about preserving the environment, then they should rein in the companies that are destroying the environment with no chance of nature being able to recover. Cut back on the amount of oil being pulled from the ground and burned, stop bleeding all the rivers dry because of century old water rights, stop creating newer and worse pesticides and stop building bigger and bigger SUVs for the love of god. That it's being done on softwood lumber is entirely a protectionist measure. It has absolutely nothing to do with the valuing the environment; it only matters because the lumber industry has a vested interest in maintaining high prices.
This is a fabricated sequence of events. It's the SEC/CME/FTC, etc's job to verify the following in this example: 1. Did Home Depot raise their prices _more_ than was necessary to respond to increasing consumer demand and decrease supply? 2. Did the suppliers stockpile or falsely report their availability to result in over charging? 3. Did pricing between sawmills/loggers and suppliers increases proportionally? Did pricing between retail and suppliers increase proportionally?
These questions will help to understand possible unnatural inflation was introduced. In the sequence of events the sawmill behavior is just a single indicator along the way.
When people stop buying what they’re selling, we know the product or service isn’t worth it, so the price comes back down.
When you're selling something people need to survive, like food or medicine, your moral imperative runs in the other direction, and profiteering at the expense of deep need is immoral in the extreme, especially if there are factors preventing competition so you have a captive market, like increased corporate concentration or a government-enforced monopoly.
You won't find it in Marx, Keynes, etc.
The only reason capitalism isn't 100% broken is because of regulation. Therefore we must accept that pure free market forces are not the morally superior path.
I remember that the day before gmail went into beta, yahoo mail was charging 25 dollars a month for 100mB of storage. Gmail went beta and offered 1 GB for free, and the next day, yahoo mail offered the same thing. They always could have done that, they just had no competition to force them to do it. So they charged artificially inflated prices.
This is what many older people don't understand. Back when they were young, there were many competing businesses in many fields, but now, there are often one or a small number, and they engage in widespread price gouging. Because they can.
This is the natural evolution of a capitalist economy- no conspiracy is required. The point of competition is, after all, to win, and after you win, you get to set the price of goods and services to be whatever you want it to be. Just ask Martin Skreli. Price fixing in this country is ubiquitous and standard practice. In that case, sometimes the government can step in and introduce competition to a market where there is none- as California is doing to insulin- or they can regulate prices- as they do with power.
If you remember before gmail, then you are ancient.
Tell us, gramps, more about these $25/month Yahoo! email accounts.
It was just an example. I think it’s a pretty good example, I remember thinking, wait, yesterday it was 25 a month and now you get 10 times as much for free?? How does supply and demand explain that?
Anyways the people making most of the decisions in our society are 30 years older than me.
I mean its a real indictment of the state of America if a $1200 check can just radically reshape the economy. I guess its possible the even larger corporate checks were a factor here too, but I was really surprised that restaurants and other establishments didn't take the time as an opportunity to remodel or update, but obviously there was a lot of fear, probably a lack of willing workers, etc that prevented a lot of that.
As a personal anecdote, I didn't receive any stimulus funds of any sort, but thought a nice covid-safe project would be to get my driveway redone- its a pretty simple outdoor concrete driveway, but no one would do this in all of 2020. I still can't get anyone to do my punch list of small $5-15k projects.
Yes, and also, aside from the general stimulus payments, there was also the combination of a whole lot of unemployment plus federally increased and extended unemployment payments that were designed to approximately, on average, to boost unemployment payments to 100% of last employment level. So you had lots of people with extra time on their hands (whether newly remote workers saving commute or people completely out of work) with less “normal” activities to spend time and money on, with their normal money or more. So, yeah, there were lots of opportunities to knock out household projects that were otherwise being deferred, or to discover and take on ones that hadn’t been planned.
It was far more than that. There were child tax credits, student loans were paused, evictions were paused, unemployment insurance payouts were massively increased etc. With the covid boosts my wife made no less on unemployment than she did working, and some people got a moderate raise to stay home!
It sounds like a very small amount of money when you put it that way.
What do you get if you multiply by the number of people who got it?
Also, do you not recall more than one check?
And, yeah, there were lots of other payments in those bills besides the income-tested-only stimulus payments to individuals. (
For a small restaurant owner, the combination of these two loopholes created an intense pressure where building out this outdoor seating was simply a requirement of doing business
Now, your iPhone, prescription drugs, favorite personal products, chicken, meat and eggs are a different story. These markets are controlled by a few dominant producers that distribute through tightly controlled retail markets and hold great pricing power.
Lumber initially shot up if I recall due to a supply issue when covid caused mills to shut down with limited labor supply and even outright restrictions to operation by local governments. It subsequently whipsawed to much lower prices once mills came back online as evidenced by the volatile lumber spot prices shown here:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/lumber-price
As for corporate profits and their impact on recent inflation, see the following article which states:
“Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a pronounced acceleration over the 1.8% price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Strikingly, over half of this increase (53.9%) can be attributed to fatter profit margins, with labor costs contributing less than 8% of this increase. This is not normal. From 1979 to 2019, profits only contributed about 11% to price growth and labor costs over 60% …”
https://www.epi.org/blog/corporate-profits-have-contributed-...
There's all this reporting about corporate greed because the average person think corporations wouldn't do this, and that it is quite bad for corporations to do this.
Or that the media is making a mountain out of a molehill, like they often do.
I wasn’t offering a solution. I was remarking on the idea of we’re just selling to the highest bidder as a universal defense for this behavior. We can recognize it when a grocery store raises the price of water after an earthquake. We should be able to recognize it elsewhere.
My intent was to link the logic OP described with the logic behind price gouging. I didn't think it was expecting too much of the reader to have a negative view of price gouging and therefore view my comment as a criticism of OP's explanation.
Even now I can't be sure whether you think the multi-quarter increase in price of building supplies in 2020 and 2021 was price gouging or not.
I specifically used general terms in my comment. This included using "disaster" instead of "pandemic" or "COVID". I included an "or" in "supply shocks, demand shocks, or both". I also referred to "various industries". I thought collectively that was enough to make it clear that I was speaking more broadly than just referring to OP's specific situation. I don't know exactly were I lost you, was it just the fact that my comment was a direct reply to their and you took that as an indication that I wouldn't speak beyond that initial context?
Obfuscating the true value of something discourages new production, so California remains stupid.
If I'm considering a pricing strategy for my business, want to stay on the good side of the law, and am given a choice between a set percentage and two vague words in which there is no exact definition, give me California's stupidity any day.
[1] https://forisk.com/blog/2021/09/15/sawmill-expansions-in-the...
[2] https://www.timberprocessing.com/sierra-pacific-industries-a...
[3] https://www.forest2market.com/blog/are-you-planning-for-the-...
If it didn't make sense for you to build a sawmill in 2019, it probably didn't make sense to build one in 2021 either.
The few thousands in stimulus dollars was minor compared to two coasts of high income earners wanting to improve / expand their houses to support work from home.
$2,000 is almost nothing when it comes to home improvement. A couple large appliances, or maybe replacing 2 windows + trim.
There was also a huge demand for new houses in areas that traditionally had lower population density, this shift in living location also drove part of the housing boom.
This is not water in a several-week-long shortage after a hurricane. These are building supplies for several-quarters-long chronic shortages. Delaying having drinkable water is not feasible. Delaying building is.
No, price just puts a floor on the value creation required. It doesn’t actually enforce the efficient use of scarce resources. Beyond that floor, higher prices tends to allocate goods to the people with the most money.
Yeah, because my house is more valuable than yours, as exemplified by the fact that it costs more money to buy lumber for it, so it can create more value. Clearly I'm a more valuable human than you (because I've got more money), and I deserve better and more valuable house.
"Laws often include exceptions for price increases that can be justified in terms of the increased cost of supply, transportation, demand, or storage."
IANL Based on the above definition, it sounds like OP is not describing price gouging. Their business is not setting the price of the goods directly. The buyers are competing for a limited supply and pushing each other to bid higher amounts. That sounds like a justifiable increase.
Now, if the mill saw the emergency and said "we won't take less than cost + 45% ..." or something like that, it would likely fall into price gouging territory.
(1) Rising prices in systemically significant upstream sectors due to commodity market dynamics or bottlenecks create windfall profits and provide an impulse for further price hikes.
(2) To protect profit margins from rising costs, downstream sectors propagate, or in cases of temporary monopolies due to bottlenecks, amplify price pressures.
(3) Labor responds by trying to fend off real wage declines in the conflict stage.
So they say that the sellers’ inflation generates a general price rise which may be transitory, but can also lead to self-sustaining inflationary spirals under certain conditions.
[0] https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1...
I think rather than pricing regulation we just need better antitrust enforcement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BlackRock
Im continously suprised that people, by assumption of brands and company names assume we still have duopolies or oligopolies.
You can own a whole industry sector without mergers and funny make pretend competition. The competition may hold true for software, because its such a young sector, but for everything else...
Collusion at board level? Or the two sides playing chicken, enjoying the profits and hoping neither does something drastic? It doesn't seem like a stable state but I could see it go on for a bit until there is a correction.
EDIT: Ah, the "Ownership and transparency" section of the article clarifies.
Those M&A have devastated so many markets and companies, IMHO.
Some of these forces are things we want to encourage (economies of scale), some of them we probably have to allow, and some of them are pure emergent evil that we have "collectively" decided not to mitigate.
Deregulation only address one of these forces. It's not a useless idea, but it gets wildly over-promoted by people who A. can't bring themselves to admit that the free market would ever create emergent bad incentives on its own or B. don't want the government to stop them from exploiting said bad incentives.
The problem is that the the big stores (Walmart, Amazon, Costco) are too big to compete against: they can afford loss leaders or, hell, even entire loss stores simply to drown the entirety of smaller stores in dozens of miles around them, and on the purchasing side they can demand insane rebates and other terms (e.g. payment schedules >> 30 days) from vendors which makes it fundamentally impossible for smaller stores to get the same terms.
If raising capital for competitors is hard (see current financial situation) then even without a trust, the competing entities benefit from raising price as the demand is captive.
Competition by itself is not a solution. You need new competition. The current state of financing a new entrant is what needs to be looked at.
If capital is expensive, being a good business with profits becomes a competitive advantage again, so I expect more competitors in the long term.
Which. Is not a given rn.
For example, if there's a sudden spike in demand for, I don't know, remodeling homes, even perfectly competitive suppliers will take time to increase production.
Pine trees take time to grow before they can become 2x4s I suppose.
Then there's the question of if they believe the spike is temporary, in which case it may be too costly to expand production enough to restore the old equilibrium.
Following your example, a lack of 2x4 has to drive timber prices up, so the scarce resource is used where is most needed: to the people who is paying the higher prices. If that people is wrong in their predictions, they will suffer the consequences. The market dynamics should 1) allocate the current available 2x4 where they are more needed, 2) accelerate the production of 2x4 that previously were non profitable (e.g. remote forests) and 3) explore possible substitutes previously non profitable.
But when you study inflation history, you notice it's always blamed on the business raising prices. With an ideal fixed amount of money in circulation, a spike in timber prices is only possible if other prices fall. If prices are increasing everywhere, someone is playing foul with money. Sometimes and for short periods it can happen a credit expansion or crunch (imagine people hoarding or spending gold thus varying the amount of money in circulation), but that won't extend for long unless someone is minting gold coins with some cooper in them.
This isn't true. If there's less stuff being made then prices go up and people get to buy fewer things. Which is roughly what happened during covid.
I don't think this is evident at all - a supply shortage will still cause a price increase? Nothing in the classical demand curve model depends on money supply. You can get shortages that increase prices in one area and change the distribution of consumption and investment. The business cycle is still real, and indeed theory was developed around it, even on the gold standard.
But this is something missed by all sorts of hard money advocates. Using bitcoin can't stop OPEC from driving up the price of oil, for example.
There's some ways to deal with it like futures contracts and strategic reserves... or more aggressive gov intervention like how Quebec built their awful maple syrup cartel via forcing companies to stockpile supply centrally. But mostly there's some hard limits to how much you can optimize a market.
Ultimately it's gigantic corporation vs gigantic corporation. Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon, et. al. aren't being pushed around by suppliers. If there were great margins to be made in manufacturing these companies would (and do) step in with their own branded products.
Anecdotally, I think Covid was like a conductor giving the orchestra a cue to start playing. Everyone ran into supply issues at the same time and naturally raised prices to the new point on the demand curve. Those that didn't see supply issues saw everyone else raising prices and figured why not take some easy money. Even if they wanted more market share they wouldn't have been able to expand production.
IMHO, it also revealed that demand was more inelastic in the short term than expected. Like my kid's frozen waffles went up like 2 bucks for an 8 box over Covid. I pay more than I want to but my demand's pretty inelastic. Not gonna fight my kid on his food choices over 25 cents a day. Eventually that will break and I don't think I'm gonna start the next kiddo on the same habit.
Some fancy pants buying a car with cash at $35,000 over MSRP last year during the new car shortage could be called a "new point on the demand curve." But actually financing a car for that last year? Unless there was an enormous increase last year in down payments, it points to bank shenanigans. Loans typically last longer than a year, and banks look at trends past the year in which they write the loan. Granted $35,000 over MSRP is the worst case I've heard. But the more common case of vehicles financed for 5 - 15k over MSRP for rapidly a depreciating asset is still a problem.
And now, a year later, it seems we're already seeing the other end of those shenanigans-- increasing delinquency levels and banks holding off on repos. Because after repo, the difference between the loan and the actual value of the vehicle is stark for all to see.
I have no idea where this market is going. But greedy dealers and finance depts have added so much energy to "natural" market dynamics that it could push many of the cash-strapped used car dealers out of business. Hell, even Carvana may not have the billions needed to survive this volatility. None of this is good, and it's all based on short term greed with little to no basic oversight last year to stave off the obvious risk.
If that behavior is in the set of "natural market forces" then the term is so broad as to be meaningless-- might as well say "inflation is what it is" at that point.
As far as I can tell, the claims about unchecked corporate pricing power being to blame are only about the steps after that and the companies further down the supply chain that rely on the bottlenecked sectors for their inputs, either directly or indirectly. The argument is that unchecked pricing power, a lack of competition and the knowledge that their competitors are facing the same cost increases allows companies to pass on the costs in full or even pad out prices further and increase their profits.
(Also, a lot of the capacity issues are in fossil fuel production, which the mainstream media and activist investors have been campaigning to further reduce capacity in by trying to end new investment to replace declining wells - and telling people that the only downsides of this are for fossil fuel companies whose profits will reduce. Then they blamed corporate greed when this actually had the effect that basic economics said it would.)
minimum wage in most places is still $7.25, and in some places as low as $2.13
It's pretty intuitive. If you're going to change the price due to an increase in costs, why not increase it a bit more and then just blame it on inflation?
Or, if costs come down later, why reduce prices unless you have to?
This is why inflation is can be so stubborn, increase costs in a single input can ripple though the system, then cycle back and increase costs even further (say cost of labor).
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bruceupbin/2011/10/22/the-147-c...
https://www.ted.com/talks/james_b_glattfelder_who_controls_t...
The reality is probably less than 10000 people globally control more than half the wealth in the world, these people control that wealth both individually (billionaires) and professionally (fund managers and board members). This is a result of unequal outcomes from the rise of globalization and the Internet. The world is a more interconnected place, including in finance and business, which squeezes out smaller players and rewards more handsomely cooperation on a global scale.
Nonetheless, all of the evidence, at least in the US, points to small business ownership as being one of the best pathways to financial independence and familial wealth. It is not necessary to create a globally recognized publicly traded company and to become a billionaire to set your family up for success in a way that is not open to most in the world, you can do this simply by finding a niche and excelling in either global niche markets or in your local market.
In USA broadband you have the incumbent cable provider, the incumbent telco and maybe the 5g fixed wireless, which is from a different telco.
In other parts of the economy you will see the same pattern.
"Your pay is not tied to any cost of living index."
"Our costs have gone up so we're raising our prices."
Sigh
Even the government is more willing to fight inflation by harming workers than a company's profits.
We'd need more unions - groups with some power over companies who will speak for worker's rights. And while they are starting to proliferate after decades of FUD, their power is also being cut off at the knees by laws that prevent strikes.
It's critical that the jobs be filled, yet those who fill those jobs have no power.
I see that, though it's interesting that Social Security is getting an 8.7% COLA.
Edit: Which is unusual, and new.
Opinion time: One might even say Social Security is primarily used by the cohort with the most time to dedicate to political ventures.
Bluntly, it's a bribe for the Baby Boomer generation to remain loyal to their politicians.
It's better than people being forced to work multiple jobs just to provide the basic necessities for life.
Employee wages are already lagging behind every measure of a employee's worth (productivity, revenue per employee, etc) over time... why do we think it's good policy to fuck them over even more?
Morals matter, even for businesses. Perhaps especially for businesses, given the power imbalance in their favor over ordinary citizens.
Plus if everyone is auto-raising every employee, that would include lots of well to do professionals, not just those struggling
Because no professionals are struggling? Given how some 80% of people identify as living month to month, and fewer have 3 or 6 months of emergency funds saved up, that seems like it's absolutely not the case.
And frankly, everyone is ignoring the elephant in the room - corporate profits which are at absurd levels. Dial those back, and suddenly you don't have a feedback loop, since you can increase pay without having to raise prices.
But Marx forbid we slow the growth of shareholder wealth to help society at large.
Literally everyone should care about an inflationary spiral.
In the face of all this money, corporations can do a few things:
1. Change nothing, allowing the first customers to buy everything and leave shelves empty.
2. Ration, choosing which customers merit being sold to, or restricting the quantity that any particular customer can buy.
3. Raise prices until the pressure is equalized and people don't empty the shelves.
The cost of inputs doesn't matter too much, except to the extent that they might actually reduce production if they aren't able to pass some/all of these costs on with higher prices.
People pay for it because they don't have a choice.
>Change nothing, allowing the first customers to buy everything and leave shelves empty
The ridiculous economic rationalization. "Hey everyone, we increased the price by 30% so we keep more on the shelves by pricing out the lower/middle class!"
You sound like you are just out of a micro economics class and think everything "has to work this way". What you don't realize is that your ENTIRE MINDSET is viewed on MAXIMIZING PROFITS for that SPECIFIC CORPORATION and not the overall welfare of society. You also assume EVENLY DISTRIBUTED WEALTH if you are disregarding the welfare of society.
If I run a donut shop and can produce 100 donuts a day. According to you, the only way to run the business is to charge as much as possible to still sell ~100 donuts so I can make the most profit. What if by selling them at a reasonable price, everyone is able to afford them and we are still able to pay our workers and ourselves well? Gasp! Another solution presents itself which makes the overall society better off. It doesn't have to be about charging as much as possible, where that extra money will just go to the owner and not the workers anyway.
For reasons (quality, scale) you can only produce 100 donuts a day. Definitely no more.
On an average day, you have 200 potential customers. Busy days, closer to 400.
A donut costs you $0.20 to make (incl labor).
Do you sell them for $0.20 each and let the first person in the door buy all of your donuts for $20? Do you ration them and let each person only buy one? (Sorry mom! Guess you have to split with the kids.) You have not benefitted anyone! You have made the situation worse.
No, you raise the price of your donuts to $5 or so. Some people will buy a couple but most people in the front of the line will get a donut still.
This is literally what the super famous donut shop near me does! Buying a dozen donuts from them would be like $60+, but almost everyone can buy a donut or two.
Raising prices for a limited commodity when literally not everyone who wants one can get one is the best strategy.
> everyone is able to afford them
It doesn't matter if all 400 people in line could afford them if the first person in line buys them all!
> Raising prices for a limited commodity when literally not everyone who wants one can get one is the best strategy.
...
> It doesn't matter if all 400 people in line could afford them if the first person in line buys them all!
the other solution to raising prices is to limit purchases per customer isn't it?i seem to recall they did this with ps5, and same for iphone in the old days during launch... its not novel idea imo... e.g "limit one dozen donuts per customer" etc
Almost everything has substitutes. I did some construction projects these past years, and because lumber prices are up, there's a lot more metal in my construction. Metal siding and roof for a goat shed, metal studs in new walls. Those were always options I wouldn't have normally chosen. The metal goat shed is likely going to last longer, which is nice, but the metal studs in the wall don't provide a benefit, other than cost/availability.
When all the items in the category go up, there's not much substitution to be had, of course.
Rice has many suppliers and a couple types, but if that's not enough, other grains are available. If the cost of rice has gone up, some of those other options look more appealing.
I understand this doesn't help if you're already at the maximum cal/$ and now those items are more expensive. But in that case, the problem isn't there's no substitute, the problem is there's no affordable substitute.
Fixing the price of rice, so that people with low income can afford it doesn't work when there's low supply, either though. In that case, they can afford it, if it's in the shop, but chances are it will be out of stock. And you still have the hard/impossible problem of how do I eat when I can't afford food?
Yes I know that other foods exist.
Maybe that was sarcasm and I missed it..?
If you're eating for example beans and rice as the base of your diet you're already near the bottom of possible prices for sustenance. Sure junk food is cheaper per calorie in the short term, but we don't have public healthcare where I live and you're just signing up to be publicly shamed for your health problems later.
But that money has to come from somewhere. Money is not infinite from the perspective of any individual actor.
If you spend more on gas and 2x4s you have to spend less on something else. Consumer and business credit makes this kind of fuzzy but for the most part it holds.
>If I run a donut shop and can produce 100 donuts a day. According to you, the only way to run the business is to charge as much as possible to still sell ~100 donuts so I can make the most profit. What if by selling them at a reasonable price, everyone is able to afford them and we are still able to pay our workers and ourselves well? Gasp! Another solution presents itself which makes the overall society better off. It doesn't have to be about charging as much as possible, where that extra money will just go to the owner and not the workers anyway.
What are the margins on this hypothetical donuts shop and what do you do when the price of labor goes up 20%, energy goes up 80% eggs goes up 100%?
Sure the prices have to increase. But what if they just increased by the amount that it actually cost? And then decreased as those costs go back down?
That's the entire discussion here- corporations are increasing by WAY MORE than what the raw inputs cost.. otherwise they would not be making more profits. And then are not proportionality decreasing as their costs go back down.
3 choices were given.
An item that costs $1, costs $2 when you double the amount money for the same amount of assets.
This is a common misconception. One big reason it's not true is because the vast majority of the wealth in the economy is stored in assets other than money (real property, stock, bonds, etc.), so doubling the money supply is very different from doubling the amount of wealth everyone has.
Now I imagine some might still be skeptical, but luckily this has been studied, and there are metrics like M2 that represent money supply. If you look at a graph of M2 vs inflation, they look pretty independent, and indeed studies have failed to find any statistically significant correlation between the two.
Cui bono is definitely at play here.
Secondly, it doesn’t matter where the “wealth” is stored unless it’s sitting in someone’s basement like Scrooge McDuck[0]. The money gets out into the economy through loans and businesses doing business causing prices to rise because there’s more money chasing the same amount of goods.
[0] though, apparently, this is a Silicon Valley thing as was seen by SVB.
Total money supply means that eg doubling the amount of liquidity does not double the price of items, but printing money can cause inflation on goods depending on where that printed money is absorbed. Making free money for building houses is different then sending a check to every American.. but in practice the Gov did the latter and now eggs are more expensive!
Where you add the money makes a big difference!
Unless you suddenly think "rent seeking" jumped right as the Government happened to start printing more money, it sure looks like inflation tracks quite nicely.
Here's a nice investopedia breakdown of how printing money can cause inflation: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042015/how-does-mon...
Inflation is just a tax, a way to tax the poor.
Real Estate, stock, bonds and goods will, in aggregate, go up.
Sure, the distribution is going to be uneven but I wouldn't say "prices of goods are not going up" and then complain you can't afford a house.
Unless you are proposing that every company in the world is secretly conspiring together to raise prices, I assume you agree with me that the actual source of the increase is the huge influx of money supply that governments created and injected into the economy.
Businesses will absolutely adjust their prices to whatever the market will pay. However, they are dependent on (or follow) inflation for the actual pricing numbers.
One of the major US issues was that the vast majority of the $6,100,000,000,000 in funding the last couple years that was added to the money supply was given to the wealthy via ownership in companies. They used it to purchase commodities, houses, stocks, and many other assets causing the producers of those assets to raise prices to adjust for the inflated money supply.
This means we see houses doubling when really, money supply doubled and our purchasing power halved.
Is it really "conspiring" when economists speculate that inflation is coming and businesses fulfill that prophecy to either enrich or insulate themselves? It's not even a stretch, just obvious.
Curious how much inflation would happen if it weren't announced that it's time to do inflation.
Two different things they try really hard to make sure people can’t tell the difference.
it affect prices of assets, houses, but this does not, in any way, affect prices of food. The entire argument is fictitious.
You mean like crypto or meme stocks?
Regardless, even it if had only been for banks. Anyone was able to borrow nearly interest free money to turn around and spend.
This means anyone (that was wealthy enough) could take their $100k and borrow an additional $X00k they used to purchase assets. When half the purchasing power of the country does that you suddenly have 2x inflation as there are 2x more purchasers (or 2x more money).
Do wealthy borrow money to purchase perishable food?
We've been through this, we've printed money in 2008 and food prices did not increase.
You cant blame every economic problem on money supply
Between 2008 and 2015, the Fed’s balance sheet, its total assets, ballooned from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion. Likewise, food prices also increased.
However, this time we injected over $6 trillion in only a few months. A much faster rate of growth resulting in quickly rising inflation.
Nor is there ever a proposed formula for what the 'correct' money supply should be.
The big critics seem to only be able to come up with Gold standard/bitcoin.
They do not propose how money supply should expand when GDP grows.
They also never talk about relationship between velocity of money and interest rate, and the fact that if velocity of money is low, then the debt of everyone in the economy pile up to infinity, and cause collapse.
They do not address the perverse incentives we have to park vast amounts of money unproductively, instead of investment in the real economy.
The private banks ability to create money is limited by government regulations.
Headlines are crafted for maximum consumer reach.
The life and times of a Fortune 50 company.
It's almost like printing money out of thin air and sticking it in to people's bank accounts, means everyone suddenly has more money and then businesses raise prices to level everything out. WEIRD.
I'm glad we saved all the wfh white collar workers. They totally needed money on top of the money they were making from the job they didn't lose during the pandemic.
Politically, people can disagree with the lockdown, or later stimulus checks and later rounds of PPP.
But I have trouble critiquing the initial response in quickly getting money into the economy.
The initial 2 week response was understandable, everything after was not.
The study authors have a different answer about why than you do, though. What they are claiming is that in concentrated markets (like most markets are), shocks like the pandemic allow for firms to raise prices beyond their increased costs, and so increase profits. They have a very interesting graph of after tax profit margins showing that firms in the US are more profitable now than they have been for 70 years, in fact.
Then as inflation increased, companies used that as an excuse too. "We have to raise prices because of inflation! It's not our fault your wages aren't keeping up!" and people believed it even as companies were making money hand over fist and pulling in record profits.
But when Covid lockdowns forced temporary price increases, companies didn't see the backlash. And so they just continue to do it, knowing the average consumer has no choice in many cases.
If companies could raise prices 20% all along, why did they wait till now to do so?
Why not in 2019?
If I raise my prices but my competitor down the road doesn't, then I probably lose. At the very least consumer watchdogs will be all over me.
The massive media blitz about how we're in a recession and facing hyper inflation is creating the perfect smokescreen. If I raise my prices now, in current climate, ky competitors will likely follow suit. Because we all know we can get away with playing dumb and pretending it's just inflation.
/s
It's all pretty silly.
I can go to the store and buy a TV for half of what it cost me 5 years ago, even with inflation.
Companies push prices down as well as up.
Healthcare, housing, education, food, child care, vehicles, gas, insurance, utilities - all up.
Gas is the same as a decade ago.
Gas is three times more expensive than it was 20 years ago, and even when adjusted for inflation, 60% higher than it was 20 years ago.
What's silly is that the same is true for "a car" if you're as willing to overlook the details as you are with "a TV".
"A house" too! House prices are going down! All you need to do is move from a mansion to a trap house and B-O-O-M you're definitely spending less than half of what you were per month.
Not that shame was a huge pressure in 2019, but it's even less of one now.
Some percentage of people, even here on this very site, will argue with these conclusions, and say it's the pandemic, or wage pressure, or anything but pricing power, and that percentage of people is higher today than it has been in the past.
The pandemic and political environment provides an excuse that wasn't handy in 2019. The political environment provides cover. The naked greed has always been there (the motive), but the means and opportunity are stronger today than before.
This is the primary source of inflation. Secondary is removing millions from workforce so that less things are produced.
Articles like this are trying to shift blame away from the government.
We have the additional factor that the banking sector may not be able to withstand further interest rate hikes due to bad risk management. Protecting the banking system is pretty much the only thing that could prompt lawmakers into action (eg a windfall profits tax) but these aren't ordinary times.
But this will never happen. It's not even a partisan issue. Particularly since the awful "money = speech" decision [1], both sides of politics are bought and paid for by unchecked corporate power (eg [2]).
Corporate consolidation makes this worse. Terms that might otherwise be illegal like "price gouging" and "price fixing" have been replaced by sanitized legal versions like "price leadership", which is basically the same thing. One company raises prices. The other follows suit.
And for some reason corporate profiteering is fine but workers getting paid more isn't [3]. Weird.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_United_v._FEC
[2]: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...
How does corporate taxation reduce inflation?
Think of it this way: you can either do a $1 billion share buyback or invest $1.3 billion in the business. If we had a 75% profit tax then it would be $1 billion in buybacks or $4 billion in the business.
Additionally, higher interest rates really benefit no one. Higher taxes fills government coffers and allows income distribution to those most in need.
Lastly, interest rates are indiscriminate. They hurt every business and borrower. Taxes only impact profitable businesses to make them slightly less profitable.
Why would investing in business reduce inflation in the general case? That would only be true if production capacity was at it's maximum and the demand is anticipated to remain high.
> Maybe even higher wages
Which will likely increase inflation further.
> Higher taxes fills government coffers and allows income distribution to those most in need.
Which will almost definitely further increase inflation.
> Taxes only impact profitable businesses to make them slightly less profitable.
Why is penalizing successful businesses a good idea?
This is a myth perpetuated by people who simply want to suppress incomes to get slightly higher profits. It's the Tyranny of Austrian Economists combined with Reagan-era trickle-down economics and deregulation that have caused real wages to stagnate for 40 years.
> Why is penalizing successful businesses a good idea?
Why is a good idea that only people with incomes pay income taxes?
Why is it a better idea that everyone pays taxes instead of only those who are profitable paying some of those profits in taxes?
Are you really claiming that more money chasing the same amount of goods isn't going to cause inflation?
> Why is a good idea that only people with incomes pay income taxes?
The context of the discussion was increasing taxes. And you did not explain the mechanism by which increasing corporate taxes is supposed to reduce inflation.
With regards to b, It seems like there were two elements at work, 1. People were generally flush with money and could absorb cost increases, and 2. There was a frenzied period of price hikes/volatility, where everything was in motion and I think most people just said “it’s crazy eggs and steak are this expensive, but it is a few extra bucks I can afford right now, and things will eventually calm down”
The combination of the above led to consumer price inelasticity allowing companies to increase price without effecting volume. I suspect that to change in the coming couple of years as consumer balance sheets and employment weaken, and consumers decide to have two egg omelettes instead of three or buy chicken instead of steak.
I have a very hard time believing that most people in the US simply have too much money. I suspect that most people are struggling, and were struggling even before the pandemic and that people's standard of living is declining, their debit is climbing, and they are just a few missed paychecks away from disaster.
I think that as the pandemic situation improved, people were simply desperate for a sense of normalcy and for the things they'd gone without and they spent more than they could afford, even going farther into debt.
It wasn't "but it is a few extra bucks I can afford right now, and things will eventually calm down" it was "this is more than I can afford, but I need it, and I deserve it, and the world is burning anyway so fuck it". I think to a lesser extent that mentality is still going on, but people are suffering heavily under the increased costs of rent, food, and everything else. Evictions and bankruptcies are increasing and homelessness is rising (https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/pdf/2022-...) and has been for years.
I can't say to what extent greed is the cause of inflation, but I'm pretty confident it's a bigger factor than how much money most Americans are comfortably sitting on.
That doesn’t mean all individuals are well off, but there is no doubt that the economy is flush with extra cash. And since the number of physical goods had not changed, that meant inflation. Which honestly nullified any advantage people got from stimulus (which were temporary).
[1] https://www.cityam.com/almost-a-fifth-of-all-us-dollars-were...
In supermarkets I noticed a surplus on top of inflation, and my thought was that people would swallow that because their reference frame for proper pricing was out the door. So they wouldn't notice the surplus, blaming all to inflation. And subsequently getting used to new above-inflation levels as their new reference.
I'd also guess we get supermarket price wars, when inflation get under control, whereby the supermarkets keep their extra margins and pressure the supply chain below to get prices down.
I don't think businesses, or rather the boards and shareholders that run them, care about sustainability - especially if it has a neutral (or, god forbid, negative) impact on short term growth-of-growth or stock prices. If a business goes under because of a lack of sustainable practices, everyone just moves on to a different company.
I'm starting to think that anymore if you want a sustainable business, you can't go public.
Relevant quote: "In contrast, we argue that the US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers’ inflation that derives from microeconomic origins, namely the ability of firms with market power to hike prices."
Personally I'm glad we're not. Some things are more important than making as much money as possible, and democracy/self-determination is one of them. It's a terrible message to send if you say that democracy is important, unless you manage to hurt our economy then we'll support anything that gets us back to the status quo growth trajectory.
I know that might be controversial and I'm certainly not suggesting that the US is consistent in it's application of these ideals, but at least today it's nice to see us not immediately roll over once there start being 2nd- and 3rd-order economic impacts.
It feels like this is really about disciplining labor, particularly in big tech.
ALSO: if you're willing to put on your tinfoil hat, the SIVB collapse could have potentially reduced competition for top talent in tech in order to continue to drive down prices.
Whan I put my tinfoil hat on I think that they bailed out the tech industry as returning the favor for the years of cooperation censoring opinions.the government doesn't like.
In that context, raising interest rates to combat "wage inflation" seems misguided.
I'd like to know what that is? I'm not being sarcastic if there's a way I'd like to know.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM1NS
In the “modern economy”, “modern economists” seem to say it’s not a factor. But gosh, just look at it.
Edit:
> Before May 2020, M1 consists of ... (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.
> Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of ... (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts).
> Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.
This means the balance of all savings accounts was added to M1 beginning may 2020. If you want to look at "money printed", look at M2. AIUI the definition of M2 was not changed that date and you can indeed see some ~2 trn covid stimulus spread out over a few months in M2.
Coincidentally there’s been a rough doubling in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, with a familiar spike in 2020.
Plenty of journalism outlets out there to subscribe to. If you wanna avoid, say, Cargill agriculture, you'll have a tougher time.