Ask HN: What do you think about efforts capitalize on SVB crisis to pump crypto?
Are they justified, or alarmist and profiteering?
Balaji made a "bet" that cannot be understood as anything other than a pump attempt (since it violates forward pricing via no arbitrage carry, something you learn in finance 101).
He also makes it seem like you should be in BTC as a hedge instead of, you know, actual assets that will be hyperinflating according to him.
The big move will be when a US state like Florida or Texas, or a "normal" country like Estonia, Singapore, Saudi, Hungary, or UAE buys BItcoin. And when narendramodi tells India's central bank to buy Bitcoin, even as a hedge, it's over.
Why will it be so fast? Well, hyperinflation happens fast. We've seen digital pandemics (COVID), digital riots (BLM), and digital bank runs (SVB). Everything will happen very fast once people check what I'm saying and see that the Federal Reserve has lied about how much money there is in the banks. All dollar holders get destroyed.
The thing is, people are still tuned to an analog world where things get gradually worse rather than all at once. But there isn't much forewarning for a digital event — it's 1 and then it's 0. Just like the bank runs, except this is the central bank.
There are however two sources of forewarning. First is the chart of the long-term depreciation of USD vs BTC, from less than $1 USD per BTC to $25k USD per BTC. Much of the smart money has been voting against the dollar since the financial crisis. The end is a digital drop off a cliff, almost invisible on the chart — but highly visible in the world.
This tweet is the second forewarning. It'll be ignored and mocked by people who still trust the US establishment, even after the last few years. Who can't imagine that the US banks and media could be lying to them to this extent."