Although off topic from the original post, would you entertain this question? What's Taiwan's position on integration with China? What does Taiwan want for itself? I'd like to hear more about that minus American and Chinese input.
Many Taiwanese don’t want war, but they already are functionally independent. The PRC has never governed in Taiwan. The ROC, which governed China from 1912 to 1949, governs Taiwan and its child islands.
Many young Taiwanese just want to be Taiwanese and left alone, but the vast majority want to keep the status quo as long as it’s tenable (it’s not, Xi Jinping has indicated a timeline). The big question is how this might be possible without poking the bear that resembles Pooh… It’s obvious to most Taiwanese that China won’t keep its promises, since it made clear violations of promises made to the HK people and UK.
Recent elections have shown KMT party (pro-PRC relations, the grandfather of the Republic of China government, and in someways the father party of the Communists that forked from KMT) gaining ground because people are afraid of war. Nobody in Taiwan wants war, but as the saying goes, in order to have peace, prepare for war.
Maybe data suggest otherwise?
The number of Taiwaneses that support Taiwan to "Maintain status quo, move towards unification" and "Unification as soon as possible" has been dropped from 12.8% and 5.0% in 2018 to 7.5% and 1.4% in 2019. Meanwhile the number of Taiwaneses that support "Maintain status quo, move towards independence" has been rised from 12.8% in 2018 to 25.8% in 2020.
Note: I am a one of the HongKongers fled to Taiwan after the Anti-Extradition protest in 2019.
[0]: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963
Taiwan was in negotiations with Hong Kong to extradite him and the protestors were afraid of the implications.
In the end, a much stronger National Security Law was passed after the riots and the murderer still walks free.
Taiwan: fine, we can negotiate the extradition if you insist on us taking the case.
HK gov: actually we are gonna make an all encompassing law that deals with extradition. It also makes extraditing criminals/political refugees/booksellers/whoever the ccp request quick and easy but please ignore it.
No.
The HK government broke off the negotiations on purpose. They want to use that as an excuse to pass some laws that gain Beijing more control over HK.
It was the proposed laws that terrified HongKongers, not the negotiations.
And yet most of the young people I encounter are somewhat resigned to the inevitability of invasion.
Prior to the HK affair, some older Taiwanese I met would suggest that closer integration could bring economic benefits, but I don't hear that these days.
With a number of HK journalists that I respect now in prison or having fled, I can only agree. The HK spirit and culture that once thrived in the city has all but disappeared, as the Chinese government applies their embrace and extinguish approach to cultural assimilation. When you can be imprisoned for life for uttering the wrong words, it tends to silence any dissent.
Lots of producers of different kinds have had their technologies copied, skills learnt and then abandoned for and only to hire them on a consultancy basis for when things break.
In hindsight it has likely hurt Taiwan's economy more than it has helped.
I don't think this will end well.
I don't understand a lot about it, but wouldn't people expecting an invasion from a much larger country want universal compulsary service and as much training as they can get? Even for those less motivated about winning, it would help them survive a war.
Throwing bodies at it won't work.
If something happens it's likely over air/sea/tactical weapons than lots of foot soldiers.
A strong majority want to maintain the status quo or gradually move toward independence. Very few want unification. It's important to understand that China promises to invade if Taiwan declares independence (the Anti-Secession Law requires that response), which means many people would ideally prefer independence but in practice support the status quo because de facto independence (the status quo) is better than being invaded. Both sides of Taiwanese politics formally support the status quo, although the DPP has stronger pro-independence leanings.
Taiwanese identity (as opposed identifying as Chinese) has also trended up in recent decades and now most people only consider themselves to be Taiwanese and not Chinese. https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7800&id=6961
It's not my personal opinion. These are the polls from varies institutions in Taiwan (in Chinese): https://www.modernchinastudies.org/cn/issues/past-issues/106...
The first column is date (ROC year 80 = year 1991, etc), the second is pro one-country-two-systems, the third is against it.
You can see the percentage of pro went from ~10% to ~30% then back to ~10%. It has never been the majority.
Table of contents:
- Taiwan: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat
- The past: How Taiwan is shaped by its history and identity
- The economy: It is time to divert Taiwan’s trade and investment from China
- Semiconductors: Taiwan’s dominance of the chip industry makes it more important
- The home front: The battle with China is psychological as much as physical
- Defence: Taiwan needs a new defence strategy to deal with China
- Politics: Taiwanese politics faces a crucial election in early 2024
- What Taiwan needs: Taiwan desperately needs support from the world