It's not wrong, but it's also not applicable to all people who enjoy performing an instrument.
You can still do it - lots of documentation, emulators and other tools are available.
But nobody is going to pay for it now.
This one raised over $180,000 just four years ago, for example:
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/morphcat-games/micro-ma...
This one raised $32k just this past December:
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1222722105/full-quiet-a...
Another that raised $49k:
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/megacatstudios/ronius-t...
$55k:
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/artix/dungeons-and-doom...
$84k:
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/batslyadams/super-russi...
So yeah, far from an isolated incident. If you can make a slick looking campaign, you can definitely get people to pay you to make NES games.
"if you build a career in developing plumbing and glue code, in the future you could have a successful Kickstarter where nostalgic developers buy your curiosities"
But why not? There are quite a few businesses that basically run off of Kickstarter. Like 30% of the board game industry nowadays fund most or all of their prints runs off Kickstarter, including some of the largest board game publishers, like CMON, Awaken Realms, AEG, Eagle-Gryphon, Garphill, Greater Than Games, Renegade, Portal and Queen Games (lots more publishers than this too).
https://www.dicebreaker.com/companies/kickstarter/news/table...
Those Kickstarter opportunities are something you do once you already have a viable income in something else because in the end they don't pay particularly well I feel. It has to be a labor of love.
Source: raised and largely surrounded by musicians who either complained to high heaven about the pay or did something else to supplement their income. Engineers were a particular target of vitriol which led to me becoming one.
You can do both, at the same time, but one has external expectations you shouldn't forget about.
Still, even then he was far from "let's use new library, just because it's fun to play with".
Of course there's a real time component to DJing as well. Paying attention to the crowd and how they're reacting to your mix. That's the magic that's harder to automate.
The technical aspects were always not that important.
The truth is, had I done so, I’d feel a lot like you described.
As things get easier, true craft and skill are less appreciated and lost as the application becomes more democratized. From the perspective of the expert/skilled individual, this is terrible. On the other hand, it’s amazing what happens when everyone has a mindblowingly good camera on them almost always. In the end, we are collectively better for it, but individuals absolutely do see their value diminished.
> In the end, we are collectively better for it, but individuals absolutely do see their value diminished.
You've summed it up well.
Sure, you can entertain doing hobby music by yourself out of passion and it can have 0 listens and thats great. Keep doing what you love!
The tweet however is in the context of a JOB or CAREER.
If you code and produce 0 value in either saving engineering hours, saving money, producing revenue - whats the point?
So the analogy is rather about having an understanding and skills of a full-stack product person that has the context to build valuable things, rather than typing on keyboard in isolation.
It's still "how". Only on a higher level. For example, instead of placing the form elements exactly and designing them you describe data flow and meta info about the data to be gathered via the form, and how it looks and where elements are placed on various screens happens automatically.
Writing code in a higher level vs. assembler still is coding, but you worry about very different things. Just compared with assembler, since looking back is easier than looking forward. Instead of worrying about (the few) registers and interrupts and in which RAM cells you place what you now think about very different things. It still is programming though, and you still tell the machine "how". Only on a different level.
When you lead a large company instead of working with a machine on the factory floor the work is very different, you still need precision and know "how", only on a different level. Even if you have "underlings" who can think, and you can let them execute the sub tasks you create, you still have to know what you are doing, only on a higher level.
Definitely. Carmack is no dummy, but I’d argue this comment section proves that he gave a pretty bad answer here (bad for the audience, not if you know Carmack and what he means).
I guess it’s the impostor syndrome, but many programmers have an out-of-place reductionist view of their work. It’s not simple, and crud boilerplate proves little about the future prospects.
Managers OTOH really are in the zone of GPT parity. At least a much larger subset of their day-to-day activities. So are many soft skills. In fact, soft communication is where LLMs shine above all other tasks, as we’ve seen over and over in the last few months. This is supported by how it performs on eg essay-style exams vs leetcode, where it breaks down entirely as it’s venturing into any territory with less training data.
Now, does that mean I think lowly of managers? No, managers have a crucial role, and the ones who are great are really really crucial, and the best can salvage a sinking ship. But most managers aren’t even good. That has a lot to do with poor leadership and outdated ideas of how to select for and train them.
I dunno, I got what he meant from the start, and the same advice was given by many people in many forms, usually in variant of "well, the business doesn't give a shit about details but the end product".
> Now, does that mean I think lowly of managers? No, managers have a crucial role, and the ones who are great are really really crucial, and the best can salvage a sinking ship. But most managers aren’t even good. That has a lot to do with poor leadership and outdated ideas of how to select for and train them.
I joked some managers could be replaced by forward rule in mailing system, ChatGPT is an upgrade on that.
The advice here is clearly meant for someone who wants to invest in themselves to provide food and shelter for themselves and/or a family in the future. (Ie “doing all this hard work for nothing… AI will make my future job obsolete”).
The advice is spot on. Soft skills are hard to learn, harder to teach, and allow for flexibility with regards to the tool used.
> anyway something about it bugs me and I don't think I'd follow it exclusively even if I was starting today.
I’d be you like the money but don’t seem to want it as much as you want to solve deterministic puzzles (“not interested in becoming a manager” ie “not interested in maximizing career/salary growth potential).
What bugs you seems to be that you can’t yet see the puzzle left for you to work on once GPT-12 makes coding obsolete and software architecturing obsolete.
A long time ago I got some good feedback, “You were hired because you typically know the right answers and/or know how to find them. You were promoted because you also seem to know how to ask the right questions, and that is significantly harder.”
I’m relatively certain it’s analogous to Carmak’s advice.
I'd unfortunately tried to make that mismatch work for too long, and as a result I completely destroyed all of my programming interest via severe burnout.
If this resonates with whoever reads this: please take your passion seriously and protect it. I don't know if I'll ever be able to enjoy coding again, unfortunately.
Lately I've been getting very much into FPV drone videography and 3D printing/design, which are both incredibly gratifying in the way programming used to be for me, but somehow even more so because the process involves mastery of physical matter on top of navigating a high-dimensional abstraction space.
That being said: I don't plan on having kids and enjoy relatively low cost activities, so I don't need to make nearly as much as I did in software to support myself.
This is not going away with the AI in the picture.
It will be just different.
Most didn't.
Programming in the traditional sense will be obsolete and people programming for the fun of it will be a niche thing.
But if you know who he is and what he does these days, it makes sense I suppose. Can't be in that business environment day after day without going slightly nuts eventually.