More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass (2017)
journals.plos.org
journals.plos.org
The main conclusion is that insecticide chemicals used for agriculture are pretty effective at killing insects (especially Neonicotinoid but probably also other classes).
A more rigorous sampling methodology would produce a different picture, with huge differences depending on the distance from highly cultivated areas.
This is not apocalypse, this is actionable, invertebrates species populations can rebound at a surprising speed in less poisonous ecosystem.
Politics should act to ban some classes of insecticides.
And people need to be educated so they don’t hire pesticide companies to bomb their entire yard every year with insecticide because they want fewer mosquitos and other bugs outside.
My house and neighbor don't spray. I chave a corn field behind me, which I think is BT because I don't see them spray. We have plenty of bumble bees, beetles, and other insects. Although I will say there are fewer butterflies than I remeber as a kid.
My in-laws live in a development where they and almost everyone else sprays. There are very few insects. Still plenty of annoying yellow jackets though.
My fear (in the US anyway) is that this will never happen because of one simple reason: Iowa Corn Farmers.
Presidential elections in the US start and end for many candidates in one state. Iowa. That's where the first primary election is held.
And the key to winning Iowa is the make the corn lobby and corn farmers happy.
This isn’t like the 2020 election conspiracies. DNC primary rules are demonstrably unfair with no benefit other than to allow party elites to override voter choices.
One could argue that the GOP primary process would be better off with superdelegates in order to avoid the tendency to nominate fringe weirdos with absurd populist policies.
Weaker candidates are identified early and fall out of the race - leaving the eventual winner with a larger donor base.
Not really true. They are only the weaker candidates in those states. You have plenty of attractive candidates in other states drop out before those primaries.
The staggered system of primaries does just that.
It actually causes the devaluation of the votes of later primaries. Due to the difference in concerns of different geographic areas, you would have a shitty sample based on the current line-up.
"Your optimization challenge is to identify the winner with high confidence while conducting the fewest number of tests."
If that were the case, you wouldn't even do primaries and you'd just rely on the surveys, which arguably have better sampling (primaries are biases toward the vocal minority due to the low turn outs and not necessarily the overall voter pool).
Does it really though? California votes blue. Doesn't matter which Dem candidate - they will win California. Because California votes blue regardless of candidate, California has self-selected itself out of the primary system.
> If that were the case, you wouldn't even do primaries and you'd just rely on the surveys
You certainly could do that. But voting is necessary to receive the consent of the populace.
Yeah and Pennsylvania is one of the later primaries but has the potential to go either way.
"But voting is necessary to receive the consent of the populace."
Only for the general election. Parties can set their own rules about selection.
Eh, this isn't the biggest issue. If it was, we would have had bills for this that were vetoed. There has to also be support for banning this in the legislature, which depends on many other states.
https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2021/ingredient-in-common-weed-...
Negative Effects of Common Herbicides on Non-target Invertebrates
https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.c...
Direct and Indirect Effects of Herbicides on Insect Herbivores in Rice, Oryza sativa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_presidential_pri... "New Hampshire state law[6] stipulates that the presidential primary shall be on the second Tuesday in March (the date when town meetings and non-partisan municipal elections are traditionally held), but that the Secretary of State must, if necessary, change the date to ensure that the New Hampshire primary will take place at least seven days before any "similar election" in any other state. The Iowa caucuses are not considered to be a similar election. In recent election cycles, the New Hampshire primary has taken place the week after the Iowa caucus."
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-vote-to-chan... "PHILADELPHIA (AP) — The Democratic Party on Saturday approved the reordering of its 2024 presidential primary, replacing Iowa with South Carolina in the leadoff spot as part of a major shake-up meant to empower Black and other minority voters critical to its base of support."
We could easily eliminate 2/3 of that crop (by switching to electric and plant based) and 2/3 of associated pesticides/herbicides as well.
[0] https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2019/07/29/corn-americas-lar...
Just because we subsidize bad things now (meat, dairy, corn ethanol), doesn't mean it's wise to do so in perpetuity.
Similarly, replacing corn with a crop that is profitable (without subsidies), suited to the region, and also doesn't require pesticides that affect insects would not be easy.
Change the incentives (remove animal subsidies), and the problem will solve itself.
There is a big demand for plant based protein now ... we know how to grow peas, beans, lentils ... however it's not profitable to do so now because we continue to subsidize animal agriculture (one of the most harmful things we can do to the environment) with obscene amount of money. That's the main reason plant-based cheeses cost 3x more than cow-milk-based, although it should be other way around.
> crop that is profitable (without subsidies), suited to the region, and also doesn't require pesticides that affect insects would not be easy
Easy is not the important part. Easy led us to the hell (or purgatory), where we currently are.
Those problems you're writing about can be solved with biodiversity. Let's imagine smaller fields, with different crops, interplanted with trees and shrubs to enable a lot of life [0], and you won't have problems with mice or bugs, because diversity will take care of any infestations.
If you're interested how to farm economically without pesticides/herbicides, may I suggest movie The Biggest Little Farm (2018), where the role of biodiversity is nicely illustrated.
[0] https://fotobanka.chrudimskenoviny.cz/sites/default/files/im...
That's still not easy. That is like saying ending entitlements is an easy way to save a lot of money in the federal budget. That's the entirety of my point.
And no offense but I have to chuckle at your example - (and note that organic veggie gardening is my chief hobby and I've studied advances in market gardening for years out of personal interest, and the model absolutely fills a niche). But around the time of the documentary, Apricot Lane Farm was USDA 'small scale' meaning income of sub-$250k a year at a time they had 60 employees... Basically you are suggesting we can replace government subsidies with venture capitalists.
There are wicked problems in agriculture and getting even a slight net improvement across environmental/social/economic sustainability metrics is going to be the result of incremental policy, technological and cultural changes, it isn't going to happen by handwaving industrial corn fields currently forming the backbone of rural communities into angel-investor backed biodynamic farms that don't actually need to make money on outputs.
That's still not easy. That is like saying ending entitlements is an easy way to save a lot of money in the federal budget. That's the entirety of my point - its a bit facile to call a change easy just because you can put it in one sentence.
And no offense but I have to chuckle at your example - (and note that organic veggie gardening is my chief hobby and I've studied advances in market gardening for years out of personal interest, and the model absolutely fills a niche). But around the time of the documentary, Apricot Lane Farm was USDA 'small scale' meaning income of sub-$250k a year at a time they had 60 employees... Basically you are suggesting we can replace government subsidies with venture capitalists.
There are wicked problems in agriculture and getting even a slight net improvement across environmental/social/economic sustainability metrics is going to be the result of incremental policy, technological and cultural changes, it isn't going to happen by handwaving industrial corn fields currently forming the backbone of rural communities into angel-investor backed biodynamic farms that don't actually need to make money on outputs.
Humans are particularly poor at lava resistance... Despite groups of humans having had access to lava for millions of years.
When I was a child, there were so many butterflies, bees and more in the summer. Today I barely see them anymore.
This terrifies me more than climate alarmism.
and I think... what a small creature to *notice* on the ground. How many dead bees escape my notice? there must be a LOT.
I guess I don't need any studies of WHAT is killing these insects...
I have apple trees in my garden and if you dont physically shield the apples, wasps and other insects will just eat them up in no time. Nearby there are enormous apple tree fields. Nothing touches their apples. I wonder why.
Where in the world would be a good place to be living when this happens? Probably a relatively small, relatively undeveloped island in the pacific right? (if it isn't underwater by that point)
I’d never seen anything like it.
For efficiency, newer cars have become more profiled and glide through the air where older cars were more boxy.
The crash will always seem years away right up until the moment it is here.
this is in lincoln, uk
What does figure 4 look like in 2023? Where can I subscribe to stay up to date? What can companies in the ML/analytics space do to help?
...nothing?
Contrary to very wishful thinking, technology is not the tool to solve all problems, and it will never be a replacement for civic engagement.
For any mess we find ourselves in, the solution - if there is one - will involve tech and engineering.
Civic engagement is going to be more effective with science behind it, otherwise it is up against campaign donors and lobbyists who can accurately point out there isn't enough data to demonstrate insecticides have caused a crash in insect populations, and to act as if they have would be threatening rural economies and food security without cause.
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=1377111639896250698...
plaster the internet with chatbots doing fake engagement in order to swing political bias the other direction. the other side of the argument is already doing it.
I’m working on a tool to make insect (focused esp. on pollinators) monitoring 10,000x cheaper. We do not currently understand the scale of insect declines, much less are we able to design targeted interventions. In the past decades, mammalian and avian declines were largely reversed, mostly thanks to ambitious multiyear monitoring efforts that enabled limited conservation resources to be allocated efficiently.
We should replicate this model with insects. I plan to make this possible by radically reducing the cost of data.
I’ve been toying with this idea for a few years, but I finally made the leap to building my startup^2 full-time a few months back (coming from entomology/ecology). Hoping for an alpha release & demo study this summer.
I'm happy to chat with anyone interested. Especially interested to meet those working and funding in this space.
1. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-020-1269-4 2. https://polli.ai Note: This site is austere (I blame CUDA troubles for stealing my time this month). Expect something more representative by April.
I dont know much about pesticides but that seems like a slippery slope.
I havent encountered a swarm of little gnat in a very long time.
However, I blame this on glyphosate which decimated the insect environments.
The other thing, in the early 1980s in Lake Tahoe, there was a grove of trees near my elementary school where the Monarch Butterflies would congregate and an entire pine tree would be completely blanketed in them - havent seen that in decades.
Milkweed is their only food and egg-laying spot (on the underside of the leaves) - but milkweed has been eradicated with glyphosate and thus no more Monarchs.
Alternative universe title: After several decades German Insects learned not to keep falling on Malaise traps, or local birds learned how to ravage the traps and take profit of it
Another alternative universe title title: After taxonomists vanished insect biomass is flying under the radar and being severely underestimated
I predict huge numbers, but of far fewer species in a hundred years..
Silent Spring is here
Climate change, plastics, antibiotic resistance, huge budget deficits, etc. We create all sorts of problems in society. We can’t seem to connect the dots…
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vinyl-chloride-ohio-train-derai...
Our inflation problem was avoidable too but everyone wanted cheap money for way too long.
This will catch up to us eventually, and ignorance will be plead.
Let's ignore the politics and look with a science lense at what is really going on?
It's one thing when a single person does it, entirely something else when millionaires and billionaires do it at a corporate level.
Cruise Ships are burning bunker fuel to this day, dumping tons of toxic mess into the oceans and atmosphere.
Fracking burn off has been going on for over two decades (around for a century but didn't take off until 20 years ago)
Super dooper nasty stuff being dumped into all the freshwater in the USA and around the world.
People see climate change as linear but just like pollution buildup, it's exponential.
Isn't the "point of no return" projected around 2040? What if it's really 2030 but even if 2040, what exactly is going to change in that time?
/s
If there are future generations, the priorities of this era will be inscrutable
Just kidding.
The world is always changing. I may be philosophically wrong to want to lock it in its present state.