Ask HN: How Bad Is the Current Market? Pt3 | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: How Bad Is the Current Market? Pt3

33 points71a54xd29 comments

I'm an eng with three years of backend experience (1yr faang, 2.5yrs growth stage startup) and one year being a technical product manager / product eng. Startup I was working for laid off 75% of the eng team and half the product team (including me, since I had the least exp and was the most recent addition).

Been about six weeks, around 40 applications that only converted to three interviews. Fortunately I have savings, but insurance is expensive and the outlook doesn't seem good. Anyone else struggling without a solid "senior" track record / solid resume?

Consulting for a friend's startup to keep the lights on, but future seems pretty bleak especially with GPT4.

View on HN

~5YoE. I was getting absolutely nothing for 4 months. No interviews and by mid December recruiters had dried up completely.

Then I applied to a non-remote job the other night, while not paying attention and the company ends up reaching out for an interview the next day. I’m guessing I’d see a lot more engagement if I applied to more on-site jobs.

Honestly the pay seems reasonable and the work doesn’t seem all that bad, but I really don’t want to move. It would basically mean death for my medium and long term plans/goals. Moving is also expensive and I’d be moving right back to a state I left several years ago.

Even with a senior resume I have found the pipeline extremely difficult to make it through as well. Initial phone screens used to be a formality, and I almost always passed the initial coding interviews, but not anymore. Will almost certainly have to accept a significant cut to my base salary. Was lucky enough to be laid off by a Globotech type so got a decent severance with six months of COBRA but it's rough.

Always thought they'd be a little scared to proletarianize the people who know how all the tech infra works but maybe I was wrong!

It's definitely not ChatGPT or AI (or at least not just that), it's remote work as well. I'm seeing a lot of companies hiring worldwide remote talent at a huge discount. This time its different from the outsourcing we have seen in the past. Because you now have experienced remote US and EU developers living somewhere where their cost of living allows them to be very competitive on rates and salary. An US developer living in Asia, can charge 50-100$ per hour, which comparatively to the US, would be 100$+-500$ per hour. And that is happening a lot now.

I have lowered my salary expectations, and am doing quite well while consulting now.

Exactly the reason why I said all pro-WFH people should actually be anti-WFH. I’ve traveled around the world. There are many smart and hungry people willing to work at night for your American salary.

The number one thing protecting your job is the office.

So, people should be anti-WFH to maintain this artificial moat that so far has kept other smart and hungry people from making a decent living and improving their standard of living, simply because they're at the wrong geographical location?

This seems like a blinkered and selfish perspective.

If the number one thing protecting your job is the office, then quite frankly that job probably shouldn't exist.

Tech workers who adopt this perspective shouldn't be surprised to find themselves in the same position as manufacturing workers when the United States was deindustrialized over the last 4 decades. Labor in the U.S. is not on an even footing with labor overseas because the USD cost of living and real estate prices are so much higher here.

Flattening out global entry wages like this will be great for the holders of corporate equity capital but would probably even rugpull U.S. real estate prices.

> but would probably even rugpull U.S. real estate prices

Good, it's been increasing at an out of control pace for a long time, but especially since the pandemic.

I'm saying this as a homeowner myself, whose home went up in 'value' almost 50% since I bought it five years ago (it really hasn't, if anything it should have gone down a bit from wear and tear, it desperately needs a new roof, deck, fence, and some gnawed up corners of walls and trim patched up from puppies when they went through teething).

I'm not talking about going down 50% for a year or two and then rebounding when the Fed re-juices the markets with liquidity, I'm talking about grinding down over a couple of decades to something like -75% and staying there, and this would have huge implications beyond just where buyers & sellers can transact.

It is selfish, but also just true. Just look at the difference in salary between US and EU SWEs.

That it's true - or rather - the current state of affairs, doesn't make it right.

Restricting the (relative) access to opportunities and resources to a select group of people by means of artificial barriers has never worked in the long run, and fortunately so. Otherwise, most people would still be living in abject poverty with only a tiny aristocratic class having agency and control over their lives and standard of living.

I find it particularly baffling that while people would usually claim to be all for social justice and a more equitable distribution of resources, the second their own privileged position is at risk, those ideas go out of the window.

Somehow you think that your unselfish perspective will result in corps raising wages abroad? Maybe a bit but certainly they will be aware enough to control wage inflation there too. The benefits aren't going to accrue to the commoner.

I realize HN is largely US-based, but sometimes still do a double-take when I see people say "all" and mean US-only. As one of the all pro-WFH people, I very much remain pro-WFH whether it pertains to working for a US or local company (and pretty sure I would even if I were in the US).

Outsourcing has always been possible even without WFH possibilities, but many companies reverted from that for good reason. There are also advantages of WFH on whole other levels, like many environmentally. I don't get the point about workplace angst (x), and if there is any, that genie will be hard to put back into the bottle. Personally, don't see this happening though for things that were valid before much for before more WFH.

(x): On the other hand, that is also what is usually driving crazy things like the Mexican wall, to name it symbolically.. so I can at least comprehend partly.

Outsourcing tech work is a lot easier now that companies support fully remote workers.

Previously, any outsourcing work would create hybrid environment which is the worst choice between fully remote and fully in person.

IDK about that. I work for a massive company with employees around the world. We need people in all time zones. We need people who can do work in specific regions and markets. We need people who can communicate in English and other languages and understand cultural subtleties. Also have experience with outsourcing in several other companies and have seen some terrible results.

False. Many companies which offer WFH limit job applicants to US Citizens only because of the difficulties related to supporting international tax systems.

I don't doubt this is part of it (I have a friend who lives in Thailand who is happy to get $40/hr tho he's a really good dev) but how many of these devs can there be?

I don't think the number can be so high where it is all of it.

I think it's just economic uncertainty. People won't hire unless they NEED to, and often the company CAN get by without that extra dev.

> living in Asia, can charge 50-100$ per hour, which comparatively to the US, would be 100$+-500$ per hour. And that is happening a lot now.

Numbers please.. you mean only now due to the WFH move upper management realised they don't need to watch butts in chairs and can hire anyone from all over the world and look at that economic advantage, though that had been always possible before, and was even often attempted with varying success, but now no concerns anymore? Doubts..

I think the big change is that companies are now hiring more or less directly 1:1 (often with a employer of record for convenience). Previously companies contracted with outsourcing firms and had no real say over the quality of individuals. At least in my narrow experience the new model works well - there are great people in India, Pakistan, Kenya and Nigeria etc. who are just as good as on-site people and can probably live very well on their salary compared to local living costs.

ll_mama, do you mind sharing where and how you are connecting with companies and arranging your contracting gigs? Which languages, specialties and/or industries are you seeing demand? Thanks very much.

I run some blogs with SEO on particular niches which I frequently update and rank fairly high for particular framework issues. I don't want to get into details, but companies google these issues, find my posts, fail at solving them with the steps which are very clearly laid out by me, and then reach out to me to see if I am available to fix their particular issue. That is about 30% of the clients that I get. The other 70% are past employers or clients and references through past clients and former colleagues.

something that I've noticed which wasn't happening 5 years ago is the insane number of people clearly from India flooding me with emails/phones and rather rude (or at least socially inept) SMS messages, and almost always asking me for SSN digits, DOB, or photos of ID to get an interview (as if) did get one interview via one of these fellows without such nonsense but then they wanted to record the video interview to show the client, I couldn't just interview with the client directly? so I got cold feet and tapped out, just felt off... BUT then I went ahead with a similar one a month later, still didn't feel super right, but whatever, at least it seemed like it was a direct hire this time, guy was nice and seemed legit, got the impression they wanted me for customer facing but def. for mentoring/managing offshore newb team, seemed like the entire company was Indian

not worried about GPT, you may be able to use it to make you more productive though

You'll be fine. Hopefully you saved some of that FAANG money because it might take a while, but if you target recently funded startups and reach out directly, you will get a job quickly.

What are you applying for? Are you trying to get a FAANG salary or just a job? Not judging, just wondering.

> future seems pretty bleak especially with GPT4.

huh?

Do you have links to Part 1 and Part 2 for reference?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com