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Right, entropy can decrease, just with low probability, which you can calculate using the Fluctuation Theorem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluctuation_theorem

Perhaps given infinite time, we will randomly get back to a low entropy state infinite times, but I don't know enough about the math to say for sure.

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You can, but that inevitably leads to far more Boltzman brains than things like the universe, and that's disastrous because then you should expect to be a Boltzman brain yourself, but they're configured randomly so if you are a Boltzman brain you can't trust any belief you have about reality including the maths that says you should be a Boltzman brain.

It's basically a softer version of Russell's paradox but for cognition and reality.

Carroll did a great solo podcast about this last year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B40PRvLtiec

Hard to summarize, but it's well worth anyone interested in this topic. There's a good bit where he ties the sleeping beauty thought experiment with Boltzmann Brains and consciousness; it blew my mind trying to understand the whole thing.

Infinite time is too much of a “get out from jail” card, because during infinite time anything and everything will happen by definition

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