The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (CSIS)

CSIS conducted some of the most detailed simulations of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and a US-led defense.

For more, listen to part 3 of this episode of "The Red Line" podcast: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/post/episode-90-east-asian... (starting at 51:36). It's an interview with the leader of this war game series.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/01/csis-wargame-ch... is another analysis of CSIS’s sim (and includes outside perspectives), but the interview above is easier to follow.

no one, not this report, not Peter Zeihan, no one ever mentions the Battle Of Chosin when contextualizing a potential conflict with China

understanding the Battle Of Chosin is essential because it debunks rationalists like Zeihan who attempt to use logic and reasoning to assess outcomes

very simply, during the Korean War, Chinese forces attacked US positions...US soldiers were well armed and prepared. The Chinese did not even have one gun per soldier. The US soldiers mowed down Chinese who attacked in pointless waves. But, they kept coming.

It was arguably the worst military defeat the US has ever suffered. US forces were so badly beaten that many broke rank and ran for their lives.

By the assessment of people like Zeihan, this should have never happened because it is irrational for China to send waves of humans to consume bullets fired from US machine guns until all the bullets were gone. Yet, it happened.

Be careful about logical analysis from think-tanks. Think-tanks would have also told you that Operation Barbarossa would be a success because Russia simply can't afford to throw millions of men into mass graves in order to secure a victory.