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Comment by cik | Hacker News Reader

Generally, I think we're witnessing a logical progression to longer government mandated retirement ages. As society both ages, and lives longer there's a reality that the cost of maintaining these retirement possibilities is only increasing. Add to that a population thay doesn't reach the replacement rate.... Well it makes for fun times.

We could also rethink the value work. We're on the cusp of living in a post scarcity world - perhaps moreso in some countries than others. This reality may cancel out the other one.

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I do not know from which country you are from and what you are saying is probably true in your context but this is counterfactual for the situation in France. As I said in another comment, this reform, according to the french government, is not about saving the pension system, which has already been reformed and works pretty well, it's about reducing corporate tax [0].

[0] https://www.budget.gouv.fr/files/uploads/extract/2022/progra...

extract: La capacité productive de l’économie serait soutenue par les réformes et les investissements du Gouvernement, qui contribueraient notamment à accroître l’offre de travail et à atteindre le plein emploi: réforme des retraites [...].

> pension system, which has already been reformed and works pretty well

* Currently there is only 1.7 active contributors per retiree!

* There are 5% more retirees each year these days (700,000 new retirees each year). Double the newborn number each year.

* 331 billion euros of pension system expenditure in 2019. 3 times the number paid in the 1980'. More than what the French state gets from taxes.

https://travail-emploi.gouv.fr/retraite/le-systeme-de-retrai...

If my parents-in-law didn't receive social security, it would be easier to convince them to sell their house and move interstate closer to us and provide babysitting services (which would encourage us to have more kids).

Unlimited welfare for the elderly is anti-natalist.

> * Currently there is only 1.7 active contributors per retiree!

Productivity has been raising continuously for the past 60 years in France. They are producing more wealth than they ever have. The number of people does not matter it's what we are able to produce which matters. I would be way more worried about the climate than the number of people in bullshit jobs.

As for retirees themselves, a way bigger problem is the amount of wealth they hold versus active contributors thanks to the insane housing market. This is the real problem and what they should address.

> * There are 5% more retirees each year these days (700,000 new retirees each year). Double the newborn number each year.

You are probably aware that newborns have a way longer life expectancy than retirees.

> * 331 billion euros of pension system expenditure in 2019. 3 times the number paid in the 1980'.

Seems irrelevant without controlling all the variables that changed in 40+ years...

> More than what the French state gets from taxes.

That's because several generations of government in France have been choking the state revenue with a lot of tax breaks (capital tax, cuts on cotisations, ISF, etc) and so called "niches". And before you jump and give me the "but France has the highest taxation rate!!!!", please refer to me previous comment [0].

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35186458

But we are also at an unprecedented amount of productivity. Surely the evolution from subsistence farming to Moon landings is exponential enough to account for many aspects of an aging society.

And don't forget, an unprecedented amount of wealth inequality. Maybe we could afford these programs if a certain subsection of the population actually paid into the system.

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