I saw this video earlier today. I'm not versed in flying machines, but how certain of a collision is it? From my layman's viewpoint I've only heard the people on CNN calling it a collision, and now this guy, but honestly I can't tell.
What else could have caused that magnitude of propeller damage to the drone? From what I could see, it was bent out of shape pretty badly immediately after that second pass.
I don't know how rapidly those fighters dump fuel, but it doesn't seem impossible to me that just getting whacked with a literal ton of jet fuel might do a propeller a lot of harm.
After the second, closer, approach of the Russian fighter, a blade on the drone’s propeller is badly bent.