Jim Cramer says the Fed on cusp of a ‘soft, safe landing’ in its inflation fight | Hacker News Reader

Jim Cramer says the Fed on cusp of a ‘soft, safe landing’ in its inflation fight

cnbc.com

6 pointskoolba14 comments

“Bear Stearns is fine! Do not take your money out!” - Jim Cramer, March 11, 2008

Silicon Valley Bank has "room to run." Jim Cramer, February 8, 2023

Cramer will have to forgive folks who don't exactly consider him a credible predictor of whether the Fed is going to make a "soft landing."

Fundamentally he’s an entertainer, not an analyst. People also watch Dr. Phil educationally.

Anyone in the prediction business will make lots of mistakes. If we discount anything a person says because they made incorrect predictions in the past then we will have to discount what everyone says. We should judge the statement on its merits.

If the signal-to-noise ratio is so low, why even care about the "prediction business"? It's worse than nothing, the noise is too high to be of any value...

Yes, but that hasn’t been established in the case of Cramer. That is, it hasn’t been shown that he is worse than other knowledgeable people. People need to be in the prediction business because it is prudent to try to plan for foreseeable outcomes or likely outcomes whilst knowing that things are always murky and the prediction can be wrong.

Isn't that the problem? If he's the best we can get in the prediction business there's simply no value in that business, the noise is too high to any signal to be of value.

I'd like to see examples of me being wrong, where Cramer got predictions right and better than other actors in this "prediction business"...

I don’t know about him but the argument that he sucks because of the examples given is not valid reasoning. How do you know he is so bad? You made a claim that if he is the best then there is no value in that business. Do you have more than the two examples given?

It's not merely that "Cramer has made bad predictions in the past," but something more like "Cramer has made bad predictions in the past that are very similar to the current predictions and he does not seem to have reevaluated the underlying assumptions that led him to make those past bad predictions."

That sounds reasonable. Thanks for the clarification.

Oh god. We are doomed.

If he was any good at predictions, he would own a private investment bank instead of running a show telling everyone his investment secrets.

Ok, so when will the double-digit inflation kick in?

So that means we are in fact about to have a banking collapse with major inflation?

Yes, if you're a devout adherent to the Cramer Rule

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