As Taleb said on Balaji Srinivasan's comment on Fed not communicating about the rate increases earlier. If crypto people feel that the losses are because of Fed's actions, then they should also agree that the profits are because of Fed'a actions.
That's speculation 101.
He likes gambling too and I try to tell him it’s the same.
Feels close to the theory behind homeopathy. If something can trigger some symptom in a healthy person, then the same something can revert it in a sick person. They just remove any trace of it from the medicine to increase the effect.
But that's not all, otherwise they'd perfectly align with interest rates, and stagflation would've been impossible, just as whatever it is that we have now.
If you look closely, it's the idea that "if X caused Y, it must have also caused !Y" that I compared to homeopathy, not the idea that monetary policy exists.