Silicon Valley Learns to Love Socialism for the Rich
thenation.com
thenation.com
Not impressed by the basic factual errors in this article. $487 billion ≠ $487 million. https://variety.com/2023/digital/news/roku-svb-failed-silico...
EDIT: I just noticed another disappointing factual error, bordering on disinformation. They say:
> On October 14, 2022, Sacks tweeted, “The idea that the American government, the American taxpayer, or any American company is obligated to provide support is pre entitlement.” That was before the SVB collapse. On March 10, 2023, Sacks sang a different tune: “Where is Powell? Where is Yellen? Stop the crisis NOW. Announce that all depositors will be safe.”
I'm no Sacks apologist, but they took his first quote completely out-of-context, making it sound like he was saying the US government shouldn't support failing companies, when he was in fact talking about the US supporting Ukraine. See: https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1634357137873969152
Edit: we're currently at 1200feet going 30 000 miles per hour.
I'm not even referring to the peculiar moderation strategies employed by Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook. What's truly fascinating to me is the extent of donations from billionaires and high-earning employees to get these politicians elected. The sheer amount of money involved is mind-boggling.
To be honest, a part of me was against the idea of backstopping (bailouts). I wanted these people (you guys) to see the consequences of the monster they have created.
And just to be clear, this is your making and its just the beginning. It's a result of a chain of events that can be traced back to the lockdowns and MMT economics. While it's easy to blame individual actors for the collapse of SVB, the truth is that all of this could have been predicted. It's not sustainable to continuously pump money into the system, creating an extreme level of fragility, only to drain it out later without any consequences.
However, in my opinion, the decision was made that it would be more feasible to address any issues that arose from rate hikes than attempting to address the potential consequences of inflation runoff.
https://www.investopedia.com/modern-monetary-theory-mmt-4588...
«Modern monetary theory (MMT) is a heterodox macroeconomic supposition that asserts that monetarily sovereign countries (such as the U.S., U.K., Japan, and Canada) which spend, tax, and borrow in a fiat currency that they fully control, are not operationally constrained by revenues when it comes to federal government spending.
Put simply, modern monetary theory decrees that such governments do not rely on taxes or borrowing for spending since they can print as much money as they need and are the monopoly issuers of the currency. Since their budgets aren’t like a regular household’s, their policies should not be shaped by fears of a rising national debt.
- Modern monetary theory (MMT) challenges conventional beliefs about how the government interacts with the economy, the nature of money, the use of taxes, and the significance of budget deficits.
- These beliefs, critics say, are a hangover from the gold standard era and are no longer accurate, useful, or necessary.
- MMT is used in policy debates to argue for such progressive legislation as universal healthcare and other public programs for which governments claim to not have enough money to fund.»
I think it would be better for the economy and the long-term prospect for American innovation to ensure a robust start-up sector, and thus support the current plan to cover the banks deposits (and probably make a profit at doing so, so won't even cost taxpayers). But I don't think these companies have any sort of "moral right" to their deposits against the interests of the rest of society.
And maybe you're thinking "Who would've thought.."
Probably people who work in finance, like VCs, that can do risk analyses.
If that is not the new precedent, then this is a bailout of rich individuals and some specific corporations. That doesn't seem a problem to you? If the savings and loan of Bismarck North Dakota fails, is the government bailing out the car lot owner and the wheat farmer and the home builder?
Yes, the depositors would get bailed out, but the bank itself would be sold for parts. That might constrain the way that retail deposits are allowed to be managed.
A start would be undoing the Trump administration's rollback of Dodd-Frank stress testing requirements for smaller banks [1]. It will probably also mean the FDIC will require more insurance on deposits. This will all hurt profitability of banks, and reduce risk for depositors.
1. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/24/trump-signs-bank-bill-rollin...
Above the 250k limit, that is not normally the case. The joint statement is creating a special situation here.
Yes, the special situation will likely become the new normal. There will be pressure to reintroduce the Dodd-Frank stress tests that the Trump administration (with the help of many banking-industry-aligned Democrats) eliminated in 2018 for banks with < $250M in deposits, and there will be greater insurance required on deposits.
Just 4 years after that change, the lessons of 2008 will have to be relearned.
Can't they just up the capitalization requirements and get the same effect with far less red tape and billable hours for consultants and lawyers?
https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentar...
There probably should also be better services out there for outsourced corporate treasury functions. ICD exists, but probably is too costly and specialized for smaller firms.
For instance, I can get a loan from a bank for a mining operation that will contaminate the ground water somewhere. Thanks to bankers, I can expect that the locals will accept the money I'm paying my employees--since they can't distinguish it from any other money--even though they'd be much better off refusing it and continuing to drink clean water.
The way we practice money involves a loss of agency to whoever has less of it. A just world would require the consent of the locals, our world only requires that I prove to a banker that the operation will be profitable.
The point is how fascinating it was to see several otherwise loud Uber-libertarian SV VCs suddenly, and once again loudly, discover socialism and the necessity of government intervention when their own money was at risk.
If their response to this is that, maybe there is a balance to be struck and there is an important role for government regulation, in certain cases, fair enough. And maybe the fact that people they know, who did nothing wrong still suffered, and needed the government to step in to help them, might indicate that there are substantially poorer people who may also be in a bad shape either due to no fault of their own, or due to minor misjudgments becoming magnified due to circumstances who could also do with help from the govt, such as, maybe, the homeless.
But I’m not optimistic that will be the case.
But if companies knew that no such bailout is incoming, they would act differently.
That being said, I do think its hilarious how many people who were promoting crypto as a way to destroy the regulatory state have now had their asses saved by the regulatory state.
They are asking for an extraordinary extension of this program to recover losses incured by bad market behavior.
Socialization is often the act of governments taking responsibility or ownership of production in order to satisfy the needs of the greater populace.
Although the general act is similar, materially they are very different. The bank was a for profit entity made to put money in the pockets of their owners. It failed. If you let the thing fail in capitalism, the losses incurred are put upon the limited liability owners until their investment is zero, then the money is gone, forever. Nobody gets a dime. That's capitalism. If depositors paid for insurance above 250k and ended up reaping those insurance wins, THAT is capitalism.
Inversely, if a (quasi) government agency swoops in to bail out said failing business, it's "socializing" the liabilities left by the company. This is why you often hear the bailout credo, "private profits, socialized losses". The losses that would be incurred are paid directly or indirectly by the entire population. In this case there's a one-degree of separation extra from the federal government bailing out the depositors, vs. the federal reserve. The net outcome is that a bank that acts poorly and loses a bunch of their customers money can expect governments to prop up their mistakes. So fuck it, live fast and break shit because gov'ment going to bail me out!
Strictly speaking, the loss of the depositors money is being socialized across bank customers.
Most people would indeed decry it because the people complaining about tax payer funded bailouts would be wondering why we were willing to tax 10 billionaires more money to make whole people with more than $250k, instead of using that money to prevent the discontinuation of a program that say, reduced child poverty by 46% in the US.
For the record, I don’t consider this a bailout. Making whole people’s deposits isn’t what I would consider a bailout because I look at a bailout as protecting entities from the negative consequences of bad decisions, whereas I don’t see depositing money in a bank as a bad decision. This is the equivalent of the govt using its vast assets and reputations to make while the victims of Madoff, for example, which without govt intervention would have meant that the fund’s assets were disposed in a fire sale, so the victims get less money than they would have if the govt intervened and provides short term liquidity allowing those assets to be disposed off at a higher market value.
But it’s still socialistic, and it strongly indicates the need for government regulation and intervention, because no private entity could do this, and basically undermines strong economic libertarianism.
What loss? Their assets were higher than their liabilities.
https://www.forbes.com/pictures/fkmm45eegei/eight-is-great/a...
Technically, this is of course correct. If there are $100 of deposits backed by $100 of bonds which will mature in 5 years, the treasury can of course satisfy all withdrawal demands on that $100 because it has infinite money, and the treasury will with 99% certainty get back all $100 because these are AAA bonds which will almost never default.
Unless they do.
But regardless, even if they DON'T default, the treasury will be made full and the taxpayer will bear no cost, technically.
But this par $100 bond is actually worth $87 today, so the treasury could have actually bought it up on the open markets instead for $87 and pocketed the $13 difference as profit for the taxpayer. That that are foregoing this possible profit is omitted in the quote above... I'm not saying they should do this, I just think that the fed is being a bit abusive with terms here.
In any case, buying up distressed assets to provide liquidity is just Quantitative Easing. Which we all know doesn't have any weird secondary or tertiary effects, right?
How is this not kicking the can down the road?
This is like a new almost-QE product. For now, it’s just a collateralized loan. But if there is some system shock and a lot of these high quality bonds start defaulting, you bet your ass the fed will buy up these distressed assets and then we’ll have QE again.
I do hope we don’t have such a shock. But they’re like a once in a lifetime event, and we already got one in 2008, so we’re probably fine.
My understanding is that the government actually made a lot of money off the toxic assets it bought post 2008. Maybe they can pull off the same trick?
I was sceptical that this was indeed systemic before but I'm reassessing that opinion.
Or put it another way, there was absolutely no capitalistic private market solution to this. VCs weren’t on Twitter demanding Chase to come in and save the SVB depositors. They were asking the government. If this was a simple non socialist, capitalist intervention, how was it that only the government was willing to do it?
The government acting as a backstop and regulator to the banking system is one of the fundamental features of the United States, and was one of the most important decisions the framers made. I'm not trying to defend the fed here, but these words have meaning. Socialism is not just the government taking any action whatsoever.
Also, I'm not sure who was begging for the government to save SVB, and I'm loath to defend a straw-crowd, but that doesn't seem a fair characterization of what happened.