America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan
economist.com
economist.com
My take is that China just plans to harass Taiwan. Last week it's believed China cut internet cables. We might continue to see China escalate until they start creating real economic damage (i.e an embargo).
This military build up is to make the US more hesitant to get involved in behaviors that don't quite warrant a war, but are severe enough to start pressuring Taiwan for concessions.
This whole situation is honestly pretty scary still, because it relies on no miscalculations. My own take is I blame Xi. Past presidents, like Obama, are often blamed for their weak stance against China, but many don't realize Hu Jin Tao was an entirely different leader. All the NYTimes articles about China joining the global order seemed far more reasonable, because Hu was very pro-globalization and no where close to as nationalistic. The KMT (Taiwan's pro-China party), was much stronger when China was run by Hu.
Recently Xi has broken convention and is in his third term. He has through anti-corruption campaigns and politicking filled the politburo with his people. There was a brief belief that post-covid, the country would pivot, however that now looks unlikely. China and America are going to have a tumultuous half-decade at-least.
I think Ukraine showed China exactly what the world response would be to such an invasion - i.e. shunning, so I doubt this would happen except as a way to goad the US into a war. And China certainly isn't ready for that yet.
From the US POV, we are only posturing economically so China can't jump ahead of us technologically. I think we are growing concerned their AI vision systems might soon allow suicide drones that can target US politicians. But that's coming anyway. In general, we have finally decided it doesn't make a lot of sense to hand them technology that they then turn around and put into military hardware that will be used against us.
Utter nonsense. This is hardly a meaningful barrier to attempting assassinations of US polticians.
EU shunned everything except the stuff they relied on: gas. That they kept buying in quantity. Given how much manufacturing the EU and US has outsourced to China, how effective would such shunning be?
China is the #1 manufacturer, but Germany is #2 and the US is #3, and the latter two will make reasonable attempts to respect your IP.
China is getting close to being ready for invasion. China has built a lot in the last decade, they built an entire modern navy. Amphibious invasions are difficult, and it is possible that they are impossible in modern world.
I’d be a whole lot more upset and surprised if USA and China were not preparing for a war over Taiwan. It is one of the top 3 most likely sparks for war between them.
Which is not to say that it is “likely”.
Getting ready for a war does not provoke war. Both sides are doing it, we know each other are doing it, we do war games all the time all over the world and it's fine.
Freaking the public out about how the game is played is the real danger. That happened with the balloon incident too -- oh gee China spies on us? Yeah, and we spy on them too, and we've got way better stuff than balloons, and they know it.
The troops were landed on the Patuxent River, and marched a considerably shorter distance to Washington. I would also mention that the British called the burning retaliation for the burning of York (now Toronto).
But supposedly the War Department had plans in its files for an invasion of Canada as late as the 1930s.
The US has been focused on Iraq and Afghanistan and sort of neglected Navy and Air Force. The article is partly about the Marines completely changing strategy to fight China.
Finally, Taiwan preparing for war is important. They haven't been preparing seriously until recently. They have forces for power projection while they need weapons for defense. Ukraine has shown that defense against superior opponent is possible.
The media has a duty to report facts, only after they know them to be facts.
Well.. they used to have that duty. Now it’s just clickbait.
Anyone recall even seeing the acronym "CCP" in print before 2018 or so? Then suddenly it's ubiquitous and everyone knows it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epoch_Times
or suffered through endless advertisements for Shen Yun.
Edit: according to above, they've pivoted somewhat in terms of their political stance and direction since 2016.
Apparently Doctor Strange 2 ran afoul of censors for neglecting to scrub out an Epoch Times newspaper box that appeared briefly in a scene shot on location in New York.
I wouldn't credit them for mainstream media's turn, though. We need a big bad and afghan goat farmers weren't cutting it.
If the threat is "they will be more powerful than the US within like 100 miles of their borders", I can understand concern on the part of Taiwan specifically but it's a little greedy for the US to need every single inch of the oceans..
The shift was not exclusive to the media though. The US state department pivoted and went as far as removing active terrorist groups executing attacks near (Afghanistan, Turkmenistan) and in Western China, that the US itself was bombing, from the US terror watch lists at around the same time.
The stated aim on the mainland side is reunification. Anyone with two brain cells would know that bombing a place to shit and then try to run it is going to be hell. See Iraq.
Taiwan knows that if they go for de jure independence, then that will leave the mainland with no choice but military action.
US knows that this is the juiciest way to do a Bait and Bleed (using Mearsheimer's terms), and will do whatever it takes to drum up the possibility while not directly engaging in an armed conflict with China.
This is just standard operating procedures when you have more than hegemons in the world.
I also believe China is a peaking (rather than a rising) power at this stage. Its growth rate has declined from 14% to less than 5% now. China is facing an aging population (due to the one child policy of the past), international hostility, internal political and numerous other problems.
The Taiwan War is being pushed precisely because China has been doing exactly that and the US wants China to stop and do what Japan did in 1985 by signing the Plaza Accords. China will never do that. Hence, the war...
China is strong enough that they don't have to listen. It doesn't really show you are strong to threaten to invade another country to demonstrate strength.
China has to invade Taiwan only if the US starts arming Taiwan to use it as a pawn against China like how the US openly declared that it intends doing. China will not make the mistake of waiting 8 years like Russia.
> China is strong enough that they don't have to listen.
Any sane observer of geopolitics who doesnt have a 6-figure paycheck that depends depend on saying what his employers want said, would say that China has been silent for way too long and the US would immediately start a war if anyone did so much as to threaten doing what the US has been doing to other countries. Then again, China has only recently reached the military power that could fight the US on even grounds without having to resort to a nuclear war.
BTW, China should be clear that they might be able to invade Taiwan. But couldn’t defeat the US Navy beyond range of aircraft and missiles.
After Nixon and the relations being restored in between China and the US, a detente was reached on this. The US avoided arming Taiwan in a way that it could be a threat to China, and China did not press the issue. The US broke that detente.
> Taiwan is rich enough that can build own weapons
No non-superpower country is capable of building their own weapons that could allow them to stand against a superpower.
> In particular, Taiwan could make nuclear weapons
Having a few missiles that can mount nuclear warheads and travel a thousand km is not having 'nuclear weapons'. Every major superpower has the air defense systems that can shoot down such missiles from up to 500-600 km and dozens of kilometers altitude. You must have a legion of such missiles with multiple warheads to be able to saturate the defenses.
> But couldn’t defeat the US Navy beyond range of aircraft and missiles.
That's decade old thinking. China has hypersonic anti ship missiles that can reach over 1k km now, and a lot of submarines. Gone are the days of the aircraft carrier...
And that’s what they’re doing?
This isn’t a Chinese outlet writing about how the sides are “preparing for war”.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/11/china-renews-threat...
> A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said on Wednesday that Beijing was recommitted in the new year to “safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity” and “smashing plots for Taiwan independence”.
That quote links to another Al J article where the keywords “plot” and “smash” are not present.
These nation states talk all the time about how “X will not go unpunished”. But most times that’s interpreted as things like sanctions or other supposedly non-violent means.
The US is still not going to attack them.
China can't claim the same with the amount of censorship and information control they have. If a main news channel in China is pushing some type of information, it is very likely such information was explicitly approved by the Chinese government.
— Chomsky, Turning the Tide postscript, Sec. 2.3
My emphasis.
In fact, Fox News is so biased it is literally being sued right now and you can be sure Biden administration won't lift a single finger to help it. The current govt actually condemns almost everything Fox News say.
That is why no single news source in the US speaks for the US govt. Unless all of them agrees with each other, they are just speaking for themselves.
I have the freedom to be unemployed.
> That is why no single news source in the US speaks for the US govt. Unless all of them agrees with each other, they are just speaking for themselves.
This is more or less true. The Media has to be aligned with the Establishment, not necessarily with the sitting government (one out of the duopoly).
> It is funny that option is never suggested as possibility.
China has no threat from Taiwan, yet they chose violence through preparation.
Russia has no threat from Ukraine, yet they chose violence through actions.
Disgusting.
NATO being "to blame" or not, I do have to wonder to what extent such actions being directly precipitated by provocation could have been avoided in the absence of it.
As long as China is getting some international trading and unemployment is still controllable she should be fine with some pressure from outside. If not then it's really difficult to tell what's going to occur.
It would be foolish for China to go into this war, they have very little to gain in case of success and a lot to lose. Also their probability of success is quite small.
They have a large army and they have a lot of equipment and weapons. But war is something special, you can't really train soldiers outside of a real conflict.
They are newbs.
The most warmongering piece of shit publication to ever exist. Literally a publication for the pro-slavery british elite that somehow is now considered a reputable source.
Google "the economist covers iraq war".
Fuck to hell this fiendish "magazine".
Is this the tipping point for WWIII or will it be isolated enough to not spill over?
Alsace was fought over by Germany and France for centuries for very much the same reason - access to defensible terrain and natural resources. Many Europeans do not care for US proxy wars but they are affected by political instability and hordes of war refugees.
And calling this a proxy war is, of course, the usual Russian excuse for why they are doing so badly against Ukraine. They really want to imagine that they're against NATO instead.
I guess the consent manufacturing has started. "If shit hits the fan, remember: it was probably China who started it."
Pushing Russia to start a war ( friends with no limits was even publicly announced), see how the west reacts, but don't interfere enough ( so you won't get involved and have more time to identify weak points + weaken the enemy support - eg. Availability of artillery supplies).
Base yourself on that.
Or do you think it's a confidence the invasion started just after the Beijng Olympics ( ~ propaganda)? In the muddy season.
Not a “confidence” no, since there were rumors already a year ago that Xi asked Putin to delay the invasion based on that.
But it’s a leap from that to claiming that China indirectly master-minded the invasion of Ukraine.
I'm not saying masterminded, but it embolded Russia.
Poo-tin was already eager to show "who's boss" after he didn't get enough "attention" in ~ 2000 for his ego.
Little guys...
But was hurt in his ego because of Iraq, since it was in/near the self-claimed Russian sphere of influence and he wasn't aware until it started.
Relations between the US and Russia deteriorated after that.
He's been planning "revenge" for the next 20 years => the reference to little guys...
There is not going to be anything moral about it. War is caused by a total failure of management over a number of years. A big part of what is increasing tensions are the real world economic problems globally. Then if the nation-states decide that things are serious enough they will make the calculation that mass murder is a good way to enhance their strategic position.
But there will be lies about China, lies about the United States, and a huge propaganda effort to dehumanize the other population or focus on whatever bad acts that have come before in order to justify war which again is a national policy of mass murder.
My take is that the leaders that push this war forward should be held to account as criminals themselves since they are advocating for millions to be killed.
I totally understand China wanting to be superpower. They seem to think that the US is coercing everybody, including allies, by force. They think that if US is defeated and they can replace them or at least coerce the local area. I wish they kept using soft power, that was working well for them.
They talk about Taiwan falling immediately and nobody helping them. China is stronger now but even alone Taiwan could put up a strong fight. Excluding big change in politics, the US will defend Taiwan. China could still win, but it would be uncertain. They also ignore the consequences like cutting off trade with most of the world.
Finally, I'm most worried about how the war ends. If China succeeds in invasion, then war will probably end. But do they realize that trade will never return to normal. Or that South Korea and Japan will build nuclear weapons if US commitment wavers. Also, that there are actions, like attacking US mainland, which will escalate the war and make it hard to end except in nuclear war.
Is this bravado any different than what Europeans and Americans regularly do? Look at the imperialism and colonizing. Why can’t the west leave the world alone? Of course Taiwan and Ukraine are serious circumstances but so are Yemen, Congo, Palestine, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Venezuela, Cuba, Falkan Islands, and the hundreds of coups perpetrated. When the west does stuff, the world stays out of the way. When any one else does anything, all of a sudden it’s about them being unreasonable compared to us. The major exceptions to this have been how the world treats Slavs. They’re slowly getting closer to being part of the west but the treatment vs the hegemonic powers is different.
> They also ignore the consequences like cutting off trade with most of the world.
This is primarily the five eyes, EU, and allies? This generally is what we consider white people and the consequences of colonialism and imperialism. The west is only like a billion people and change. Maybe 1.25B.
> attacking US mainland
That would never happen. Why not be worried the US will invade mainland China?
> Why can’t the west leave the world alone?
Why can't China leave Taiwan alone?
They should.
Now respond to my post in good faith as the rules of HN dictate.
My worry is that China thinks it needs to invade Taiwan to show they are superpower and knock down the current superpower. Which will just create an endless war, look at the Cold War or WW2. I have theory that authoritarian government produces this dominance thinking, combined with misconception about how the US rules.
The West is half of the world economy. In the middle of the war, no ships will sail to China since it would be too risky. In addition, the US and allies can easily blockade China completely. Another consequence is that invasion will destroy the fabs in Taiwan and nobody will get chips for a while.
I was debating with someone from China that was afraid of US invading mainland China, and we were all pointing out that was impossible. He was talking about scenarios of China attacking US mainland, we pointed out that was unlikely and deeply unwise. He couldn't handle that China would likely be attacked and couldn't respond. But that is limited war works to prevent nuclear war.
> authoritarian government produces this dominance thinking, combined with misconception about how the US rules
Westerners have a misconception of what is authoritarian or democratic, and what isn’t.
China is authoritarian but so is manufacturing consent under liberal regimes. There’s a startling amt of propaganda the west takes in to believe in their own superiority. I listed many examples of western imperialism and mucking about. That’s a fraction of the total amount. Which is many, many times more than China.
China is bad. So is the west. Everything you fear about Chinese thinking is a mirror of western thinking except add smugness and elitism to the mix.
How does the US rule?
> Another consequence is that invasion will destroy the fabs in Taiwan and nobody will get chips for a while.
Less weapons to kill innocent Palestinians with? Sounds okay to me.
Maybe the PRC could get inspired by the RC? Who after all invaded modern-day Taiwan against the wishes of the non-Chinese natives.
With all that said, and for the record, yes: there should be no unification and China and Taiwan should stay where they are. Two wrongs never make a right. (Not that the PRC was ever blameless, of course.)
Eye Roll
I thought Russia was the biggest threat. Wait, wasn't it Iraq? No it was Iran! hmmm
Unrestrained war with the US war machine would be....catastrophic, to say the least. I mean for both parties, but the US out spends everyone by a wide margin[0] and the US military is very advanced and well resourced, and well trained. Even if the fighting was just constrained to Taiwan, it would be pretty bad for everyone, but I think it would be especially bad for China.
Now just for the mental exercise, if we take nukes off the table and assume actual, all out, total war, I'm pretty sure the US can level just about any country on earth, or at least, we have the hubris to believe we can.
With nukes? well, I mean, I had a good life I guess, thats pretty apocalyptic, but I'm certain the US would have more than enough ICBMs and the like to level an entire country in hours
[0]: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/jan/military-...
Nation building, however? God we do suck at that. Thats why I made the distinction. We tried nation building (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan) and failed miserably, but we are not talking about nation building.
We are talking about all out total war, and I've seen enough of the war machine up close to tell you, that if it was unrestrained, it would have laid waste to their targets in short order, and without much fuss.
What Russia is doing, from the aspects of their aims, is also not total war, its trying to do nation building in the Ukraine.
I hate all war, FWIW, enough experience with it to know better, but it would be a fools errand to take on the US military machine in present by any nation, really.
Short of nukes, there just isn't any single nation that could really go to task with it, its massive, and thats why it scares me.
I'm not an expert military strategist or anything, but Taiwan being an island gives the US many options to lean into
The Gulf War put the world on notice at how quickly Iraq, then the 5th (iirc) largest armed force, was dismantled in days by the US war machine.
Right now, by any serious account, even if all the armies of the world joined forced they cannot defeat the US on an all out conflict. Now the US might again star a war over Taiwan and come another election cycle it will just not be a popular thing and withdraw after enduring casualties in the 10s of thousands and losing trillions of dollars. That kind of a lame withdrawal I can see.
But a conflict with China, unlike small boring countries will mean attack on mainland US!! Something that hasn't happened since pearl harbor. And is very unlikely to fizzle out of popularity in a few years. It will probably be the one thing that can unite the US and save american democracy ironically.
You gotta understand, it isn't the 5-6x times bigger military budget, much much bigger navy,huge territory far away from China or allies, the insane sprawling military complex, the diet and health of military aged men (never mind the obesity, when americans bulk, it is at scale),supply chain,800 bases around the world (china has like 2), NATO support,etc... far beyond that the US has something every military starves for:experience!! Since WW2, every generation of americans has has a major war and the US is constantly engaged in subterfuge or random smaller skirmishes around the world. The PLA of China has never had a real war since it's inception, perhaps it can defend the mainland or even Taiwan but the US can keep coming back and hammer them out unless they can manage to get their 2 carriers to get a few hundred thousand chinese to mainland US, use nukes (and risk getting nuked back) or technologically overwhelm US bases and carriers by a large margin. Their economy is great but the stability of their government depends on it, halting most of their international trade will not help their stability.
Now my speculation is that Xi will attempt to invade Taiwan and the US will retaliate and support Taiwan but both the US and China will avoid mainland or non-military targets and come up with a treaty that will save faces on both ends after like a year at most because they will both miss the money too much.
But keep in mind also, chinese intelligence has a chokehold on key american figures and can be overwhelming to US counterintel. If you think the fee republicans supporting Russia now is a big deal, half of congress might support China in a war, if not openly, china might be able to manipulate them to push for a more ukraine-like passive support.
The US is like godzilla and other countries are like japanese people in older movies when it attacks tokyo. You can defeat it, just not in an outright battle of strength.
Nukes are the problem, though. If they start flying, we would end up eradicating the entirety of the Northern Hemisphere from fallout.
But this wasn't unrestrained war, it was nation building, and we are no good at trying to be imperialists, yet we try, and its sad, and I think the country will for the foreseeable future have learned from these mistakes, but Iraq and Afghanistan were not unrestrained wars, they were attempts at nation building, and we failed for so many reasons.
If they were more conventional, say like the Gulf War was, it would have been over in days, weeks maybe.
Completely unrestrained? I don't think we'd be talking about Iraq and Afghanistan as current countries.