Silvergate, SVB, and Signature were cooking for some time and I imagine a few others are too – but would foregoing an expected 25bps rate hike really change anything?
From this I can deduce that banks with names starting with S go bankrupt.
Schwab is next?
One can hope.
Maybe. What's the conditional probability a bank's name starts with S?
https://www.bestcashcow.com/banks/S has 24 on a page it seems, and 15 pages, so 360 out of 4778 apparently. 7%, which is higher than the expected 3%.
You'd probably want to set your expected % based on word-starting tokens in some large English-language (or Latin-script) corpus, due to the unequal distribution of letters in English and languages that use Latin script generally.
And then probably balance it somehow by what states have which letters, and the fact that Savings begins with an S.