If the government bails out SVB, expect an “Occupy Silicon Valley” movement

Might actually be good for business.

I'm increasingly convinced that the showboating is a last ditch effort to scare regulators/politicians/someone/anyone into promising a full bailout in an attempt to avoid the impending oversight. When the SVB asset network is unwrapped, my guess is that it's going to turn out to be almost 100% circular, a cyclic engine designed to fund the startup and eventual acquisition of company after company while the owners (who own both the startups and the bank!) take a cut at each step. There's really no better explanation for how all these startups all ended up buying 100% commodity banking services from one institution.

Somewhere in the last decade, the smart VC's stopped getting paid in unicorn exits and started running the business like a cartel. And my guess it that's going to turn out to have been questionably legal in a few corners.

I've seen people confusing "Big Tech" vs the SVB depositors. And confusing SVB vs the general concept of Silicon Valley itself. And confusing bailing out SVB vs making the depositors whole. I have zero hope that America will be able to grasp any of the nuance.

These are mildly complex topics. Your average Jane or Joe may not understand them, but that doesn't stop a large number of shameless idiots parading their confusion on social media, backed by nothing but very strong tribal feels.

A sale of assets to cover liabilities is the normal procedure. It does not constitute 'help' and does not guarantee depositors will be made whole in the end (I understand that another issue is that many depositors need the cash right now, not in 6 months).

The government will probably want do something to prevent contagion and companies from going under but politically the key is how that help will be financed. The political issue is to use taxpayers' money to help Silicon Valley because, obviously, the optics would that money from struggling families is diverted to help millionaires in the Bay area.

Note, I am not in the US so I am a bit fuzzy on whether 'government' means Washington D.C, Sacramento, or both in varying degrees. But I think the political aspect is the same either way modulo how much clout SV has in one relative to the other.

Here in the UK the government is also considering help, not least before the budget is going to be unveiled this coming week, and I suspect the political aspect is the same. There's high inflation, people are struggling, taxes are rising, and so handing out 'free' help within a matter of a few days to people/companies that are viewed as being in the top 10%, if not 1%, may not be popular. Better to show that help will be such that it won't cost the taxpayer.

Very doubtful. Just look at what happened in many cities across the US during the summer of 2019 because of the actions of a handful of degenerate cops in one city. Now just throw in "rich bankers," "silicon valley," "4 corporate officers cashed out millions in the week prior," and "CEO was a SF FED director up until the day of the implosion" and you can do quite a lot to whip people into a frenzy, if crafted properly.

They won't. And half of those that can, won't, because the intentional obfuscation benefits their talking point.

I doubt it.

This is just the latest "current event" that everyone will be an expert on overnight.

I bet if you polled all the people with strong opinions (in either direction) they would get most facts about the situation entirely wrong.