Startups that use Silicon Valley Bank are freaking out over payroll
businessinsider.com
businessinsider.com
And rightfully so. I am wondering if they will need to pay delayed salaries with an interest.
Source: https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1634286688922132481
The question you’re responding to is asking what percent used svb. That is unknown.
The OP was saying it was at least 30%
I can see where the confusion comes from. 2% of YC companies could use SVB and 30% of that 2% can't make payroll. Or 90% of YC companies could use SVB and 30% of those can't make payroll. That's a big difference.
The "No, " at the beginning of my response probably triggered them. I was simply trying to make it clear to others that their information was misleading.
Additionally, salaries are usually paid in arrears, which means you already did the work when payday comes so if it does not and you keep on working you're actually going deeper into the red.
I would think it worth working at least Monday, then deciding how to proceed after the banks have opened.
Lots of stories about people working without pay start with explainable reasons and end with a huge missing amount.
I also have a policy that i will never pay ransom, but 8f it happens, will I?
I certainly feel the same way but never put it to the test.
It was many years ago, but I vaguely remember I was hoping they really messed up so I could go to the beach or something.
Why? What did SVB provide that Citibank, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, etc. not provide?
When you are a startup, a typical model is you deposit $2mm or $4mm or whatever of VC money and spend it down. You are a brand new company with no income and a bunch of money. You trip all their fraud flags, and all their models for credit are based on income, age of account, etc.
Payments to vendors would constantly get frozen, incoming wire transfers get flagged. Getting a cash-backed company credit card wasn't possible. It has improved slightly recently, but still very tough.
Overall, I'd say very few startups use the big banks today. If they're not with SVB, they're with other mid-size regional banks.
> More importantly, SVB was particularly flexible about lending tech startups money even though they didn’t have free cash flow (because tech startups usually lose money at the beginning of their lives) or much in the way of assets (because startups often don’t have much more than the brains of their founders and early employees when they launch). “If you are a startup company, you don’t look like a normal business,” says Sean Byrnes, a startup founder and investor who says he has used SVB for years. “Most banks, if you go to them and ask for a loan, they’ll laugh at you.” SVB was also often willing to work with founders who weren’t US citizens, which would be an obstacle for more traditional banks.
If I understand this correctly, SVB will be bought by a larger fish, and we’re back to business as usual, albeit more consolidated (enormously bad, imo, but a different bad).
In hindsight, it would have been better to keep cash. Or even better to find an asset inversely correlated with interest rates, even if it would have earned less money when rates were low.
It was a lack of beta that killed them, and while there doesn’t seem to have been wrongdoing, it sure looks like a classic “failed to understand their own business” mistake.
The bank would still exist, and just have been less profitable in previous years, if they had hedged against interest rate increases.
> inversely correlated with interest rates, even if it would have earned less money when rates were low.
I'm not too savvy but isn't that what I-series bonds are for?
Oh what a 2010 thing to say!
2023 startups lose money for all their lives. SVB was running a bad business banking almost exclusively to startups that have never had positive cash flow.
To me this is classic SV echo chamber thinking. There’s a reason traditional banks are more wary of lending to start-ups and it isn’t because they hate money.
It’s not that they catered to high risk clients it’s that they understood that the definition of risk was not universal. What may look risky to Bank of America isn’t actually more risky if you know the nuances of startups.
Or put another way, the odds that a new commercial Bank of America company goes on to become a 10 billion dollar company is probably 1 in a billion. The odds that an SVB customer would go on to become one is probably 1 in a thousand.
But the important thing is that SVB didn’t fail because of bad credit or bad loans - something you’d expect from riskier clients. SVB’s problem was that they had more deposits and cash than they could handle, they literally had too much money and the fed has raised interest rates too fast for them to absorb.
Do you know why couldn't they handle it? Banks usually have to manage their Credit, Interest Rate, Liquidity, Price, Foreign Exchange, Transaction, Compliance, Strategic and Reputation risk. And then from an investment POV, all investors have to handle portfolio risk. So I wonder whether SVB just wasn't sophisticated enough to handle these risks.
If they're the 16th largest bank in the US, it seems to me that they should have had the chops to "handle" large amounts of cash...
1. way more deposits than they historically managed, with no-where good to put it.
2. failure to do what banks do, which is arbitrage their position, putting a huge amount into long-term low interest bonds
3. looking for loopholes in liquidity & stress tests, and reporting exemptions that might have raised earlier alarms
#3 is inexecusable but the other points are in the "bad at your job" category.
It took two factors.
3x the money you manage in 2021 specifically
Have well networked clients that carry out a bank run together.
That’s just not how America has worked for a long time now, and I don’t think most folks would describe American businesses as any riskier than in say Serbia.
This isn’t a “bad guy” story, as far as I can tell.
Funny how tables have turned recently. Now it's other way around more often. If your start up is actually manufacturing something, a physical item, the banks deem the business as non traditional... Go figure...
I agree. There are no bad guys here. There's just a bank that took and chance and it bit them.
It is about having a company checking account for payroll and somewhere your investors can put money.
The big banks refused to even open an account for my startup. Our business model is incredibly common but due to it being "fintech" we could not open an account.
SVB still had a decent amount if KYC stuff and paperwork but would allow us to operate.
Another banking platform we used literally reversed the incoming wire from our lead seed investor, even though i called the bank before telling them to expect a large deposit.
SVB was great to work with. The people are fantastic. The big banks on the other hand...
So the argument that by the mere fact SVB banked startups as customers was more risky than big banks is not quite precisely right, as big banks have business accounts and plenty of startup customers too. But as other comments have mentioned things were often made quite hard for them there, and SVB was the better product to startups...as just a literal checking account for day to day operations.
The giant risk management failure was in how SVB managed the deposits and indeed the mismatch of the assets it held against them. We all know the long dated UST issue now. Their deposits ballooned so quickly over the last 18mo, the mistake was to put them into such long locked up bonds immediately. A better approach could have been to assume that money could "come out as fast as it came in", and to have held shorter duration securities, shorter maturity bonds, money market funds, repo market commercial paper etc. Then as the steady state pattern emerges post this influx of deposits, then make a better risk management based decision of what proportion to now put in longer dated assets, medium dated assets and shorter dated ones.
And above this specific risk, clearly in hindsight, there was an overall systematic risk in having a non-diversified customer base who all consume the same information sources, highly networked and correlated with each other in their behaviour.
I think from their perspective, they thought they understood tech better than other banks, so thought that they could better analyze the risk (thereby not misclassifying many companies as risky) and use that as a competitive advantage. Right now, it does not look like that part of their business model failed at all.
Just because one is conservative, does not automatically mean one is not taking on risk.
In banking, interest rate risk is the exposure of a bank’s current or future earnings and capital to adverse changes in market rates. If they put all their money into govt backed securities, they also took on portfolio risk.
Cash on hand would clearly help with a bank run and could be slowly invested in treasuries over a longer duration.
> Our business model is incredibly common but due to it being "fintech" we could not open an account.
what's the name of your startup?
> In many cases, startups exclusively banked with SVB because doing so was listed as a covenant of their debt!
> So CEOs across the tech sector on March 9 faced a hard choice: You can pull your deposits from the bank in order to save them, but then you would be in breach of covenant, and at risk of default on your venture debt. Of course, the alternative was that you risked losing everything if the bank failed. Many chose to hold tight as SVB’s outright failure seemed outlandish even a few short hours ago.
[this is a copy/paste of a comment I made on another thread]
Would it be fair to characterize most answers as a generally larger appetite for risk? Anybody familiar care to comment?
They've got an additional ~70 billion in loans that are likely less liquid to fill the remaining 70 billion of deposits. It's less certain how much these are worth but they're at least worth something.
Net result is that depositors are losing 0-40% of their money. Much more likely that it's 0-15%. Which sucks but it's not going to kill an otherwise healthy company.
The media is blowing this out of proportion bc it generates clicks.
The investors are blowing this out of proportion bc in the slim chance that the FDIC doesn’t get this resolved over the next week, their companies are at risk. And, helping their companies avoid that albeit small risk is their job.
I agree with you though. The most likely outcome is that almost everyone gets access to most of their funds next week.
The 16th largest US bank disappearing in 24 hours is not a molehill, particularly when it is the one that is the source of the check you depend on in existing in 6 days. Hope is not a strategy.
The big risk is that things stay frozen while this gets figured out (weeks to months), which will have major knock on effects if people don’t have alternative sources of liquidity.
People put money in the bank because they need it liquid (generally!).
That said, your overall point is correct, and previously the way this has been handled FDIC wise is that they have another, larger bank buy them out to provide the short term liquidity while asset sales happen.
The loans SVB made are less liquid and are harder to market. The FDIC will try to find a buyer and may agree to backstop some losses to get a deal done. This won't take more than a couple weeks and might get done this weekend too.
This isn’t quite accurate. The FDIC statement said they would make an advance payment on uninsured deposits within the next week.
So, there’s a guarantee that there is some money beyond 250k coming in less than a week. My guess is the other commenter’s analysis is close. The FDIC will determine the absolute floor of the value of assets that SVB had, and that will be the basis of the advance payments.
That will be the foundation of liquidity that companies will have while they wait for the rest of the process to conclude.
SVB collapsed and is the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis.
It is unlikely to cause contagion (though some disagree) which means luckily the Fed won't raise interest rates to mitigate that risk (unless they also think there's risk of contagion, like some experts do).
SVB seems to have had a very concentrated set of customer relationships. For example, a startup might do its banking at SVB, and the startup's founder might do his/her banking at SVB. That include taking loans to buy houses as cars--because traditional banks don't "get" borrowers who look like a founder.
Now that startups can't make payroll (and some of the founder's personal deposits might be frozen), what if startup founders start defaulting on their loans?
So SVB's successor has to write down those assets... which makes it harder to pay out the deposits... which triggers more defaults... which results in writing down more assets. That could turn into a very nasty death spiral, particularly if it creates contagion that spreads to other banks.
What proportion is valid when the same problem keeps happening?
I don't understand why people like you don't see the writing on the wall.
Fractional reserve banking is the problem. If you don't see it, I don't have time to explain it.
I don't disagree with you, but if you're going to bother disagreeing, explain your position.
Keep defending the establishment, they'll never save you.
However, I've used BofA, Chase and WF for startups and it all worked fine. But we were only raising few millions.
If the latter, that’s a good predictor of the probability bank runs at other institutions.
When the VCs started advising their portfolio cos to pull out, it toppled the dominoes very fast. If SVB had a higher retail account mix, this probably would have been a slightly different outcome.
One report said depositors tried to pull out $45B before it went down. It would many HNI retail depositors doing a simultaneous withdrawal to trigger a failure. Not impossible, just much lower probability of that occurring.
In order for it to be involuntary termination, what you’d likely need is a situation in which you have worked and not been paid for that work and the employer refusing to do so. This would create illegal or intolerable working conditions, to which you’d then need to argue is constructive dismissal.
But you should speak to a qualified employment attorney.
Constructive dismissal and furlough are some terms you can research for more info.