Has the generative AI pricing collapse already started?

All we know for sure is that the pricing is going to go down from here on out. I doubt there are any big players in big tech that are going to sit this out. Properly tuned LLMs have the potential to disrupt more than anything we've seen so far. The ground is shifting for sure for the smaller companies, but the big guys are just getting started.

Open AI et al (are there others with apis you can run now?) are essentially jockeying to be commodity providers at this point though. A more interesting signal to me will be when the value-add" businesses start racing to the bottom cost-wise. As the article said, there are scores of businesses trying to enter this space. Will there be any actual traction in the value that companies can add on top of foundation models, or will it devolve to who can resell the cheapest. I'm still betting on the latter

If the business for LLM turns out to be "generate spam, marginally speed up certain kinds of information work, be an interface to something else", that's not actually much of a market for a differentiated service.

It's automation towards accuracy and quality that is the reason to be excited/terrified about the stuff, but everyone that probes existing models deeply enough finds a case where they output dangerously wrong answers, and you can get those very cheap.

The products they offer don't have wide appeal, though they keep technology enthusiasts amused.